|  |     This was EM'd around quite widely.  Given that it's 25 years old
    the relevance of many of the ideas is quite fascinating:
    
==========================================================================
From:	POOL::ELLIS        "Ron Ellis, VMS Performance"    2-JUN-1989 
14:40:55.90
To:	STAR::FARNHAM,STAR::PROULX,STAR::NIGEL,STAR::GAZO,DOHERTY,HENDERSON
CC:	ELLIS
Subj:	Worsing's speech on reliability and service, a classic
[much forwarding removed]
************************************************************************
IBM used to make a lot of relatively unreliable products...and then they 
changed their ways.  People often ask why.  There are two primary answers.
The first is that early on in the 360 family life IBM only leased systems...
and when a customer was unhappy they simply refused to send in the monthly
payment.  This was surprisingly effective and, as you might guess avoided
a lot of dialogue about "never getting enough data from the field".  Tom
Watson used to get very upset about not getting the rent checks and 
generally did not accept lack of "data" as an excuse.
The other reason is that a few really big customers strongly articulated
their needs in this regard to IBM management.
What follows is a transcript of a speech by R. A. Worsing...then director
of Boeing's computer operation...to IBM Field Service management.
He was invited to speak to them about "service requirements", but
in fact really focussed on product reliability and quality issues more
than on service per se.  Fortunately the speech was transcribed and
has served as a true "classic" within the service community in many
companies.  Note that it was given in 1967, but that many of the points
made are still relevant today within our domain.
The presentation also gives a lot of insight as to why reliability
is an "emotional" arena within any Service community...we all have our
own "Worsings".
Finally, legend has it that for many years UNIVAC required all product
development managers to read this yearly and actually sign an annual
declaration that they had read it.  I cant' verify this, but it wouldn't
surprise me too much.
At any rate, please enjoy and circulate/forward as appropriate.
Regards,
John
******************************************************************************
                        SPEECH TO IBM FIELD ENGINEERING 
                                BRANCH MANAGERS 
                                 July 31, 1967 
                                      By 
                              Dr. R. A. Worsing, 
                                   Director 
                            Systems Administration 
                           and Computing Department 
                              THE BOEING COMPANY 
    TOPICS: 
    1)    What you expect from Field Engineering 
    2)    Importance of System Reliability and Availability 
    3)    Engineering Changes 
    4)    Preventive Maintenance 
    5)    System/360 
  
    My first reaction on receiving an invitation to speak to you this 
    afternoon was one of sheer incredulity.  The few of you who know me 
    well do not, I suspect, regard me as one of your more congenial 
    acquaintances.  "Haven't they had enough of me?" I asked myself. 
    "They must be gluttons for punishment." 
    But being an eternal optimist I came around to the point of view that 
    at last my preaching, cajoling, threatening and pleading had begun to 
    bear fruit.  It will be the first time; but, if I can get my message 
    across, it might not be the last. 
    So I am acting upon the assumption that you are not expecting any 
    bouquets this afternoon.  This is serious business.  The problem, so 
    eloquently portrayed by the movie you have just seen, is bigger than 
    both of us.  Boeing is not a university, it is not an insurance 
    company.  Boeing, because of its size and the urgency of its business, 
    has no trivial problems.  It is a problem amplifier, if you like. 
    Whenever anything goes wrong, it goes wrong badly. 
    Now the area of computing that my people and I are most remote from is 
    precisely the area under discussion today.  I have a lot of 
    programmers working for me and they think they understand software. 
    My hardware people understand logical design and circuitry.  But we 
    have no one conversant with the problem of maintenance.  Consequently, 
    this is the area we least understand and, when you don't understand 
    you become frustrated.  I say this to give you some understanding of 
    the problem of being the manager of the computing department in one of 
    the world's largest, and most rapidly growing, users of computers. 
                                   
    The material which I draw upon for my purposes today has been gleaned 
    over ten years as a victim of outrageous hardware.  I've run the gamut 
    from part user of a 701 to manager of a $25 million-a-year 
    installation.  Today, I have at least one of almost everything that 
    IBM has ever invented.  I suppose God has chosen to punish me here on 
    earth.  For some reason, He just can't wait.  The consequent baptism 
    by fire puts me in an unequalled position to address you today on the 
    subject of Customer Engineering. 
    Carl suggested five subtitles to which I might address myself that he 
    felt would be of significant interest to you.  I am following his 
    advise, and will therefore begin by attempting to answer the question: 
    What do I expect of customer engineers?  Well, there's a one-word 
    answer to that - perfection.  I expect the machines to work twenty-two 
    hours a day.  That's simple enough.  Give me a 100% reliable machine 
    and I will be happy.  Allow one bit to reverse itself in the middle of 
    a two-hour run and I'll be a very unhappy man.  It's simple, home-spun 
    philosophy, attained by bitter experience. 
    If this sounds unreasonable to you, consider the following.  What 
    would you think of an automobile that, despite a thorough daily 
    overhaul, broke down with 15% probability every day?  This is what my 
    grandfather did expect and lived his life accordingly.  However, had 
    his generation found this state of affairs tolerable, our generation 
    would have been in the same boat still today.  They simply adopted the 
    Worsing dictum, you can't abuse all the people all the time.  They 
    finally catch up with you, and you change your ways or perish. 
    Again, how many of you would board a 707 which, despite two hours of 
    preventive maintenance every day, had a probability amounting to 
    certainty that it would require airborne maintenance at least once 
    between midnight and morning on succeeding Sundays?  Or, that you 
    would have to board the airplane twice a day every day for a week 
    or a month to be sure of getting from Seattle to New York once? 
    Let me develop this idea by putting into Boeing's mouth the kinds of 
    repartee that I get subjected to.  In this way, you might understand 
    more readily and be more sympathetic to my cause.  Now I regard a main 
    frame, the card readers, printers, tapes, discs, drums, telephone 
    wires, modems and remote I/O units as a single system.  If any device 
    is down the entire system is down.  There's no such thing yet as 
    "partly down".  Computers are binary, aren't they?  This means they 
    are either working perfectly or they aren't working at all.  What 
    comfort is it to the programmer to be told that his program almost 
    ran,and had it not been for a loose connection on chassis five, he 
    wouldn't have been here at three in the morning?  Now let's change 
    roles. 
          "Take courage, Widow Robinson, it was only the engines that 
          conked out.  The body and wings were in perfect shape.  Anyway, 
          we don't make engines so it wasn't really our fault." 
          "Members of the Inquiry Board, the plane behaved perfectly all 
          week.  Just a loose connection with the main fuel tank in the 
          middle of the Indian Ocean for three minutes.  It had passed all 
          the pre-flight diagnostics." 
          "Of course, we don't guarantee a thing.  If you want to be 
          absolutely certain of getting from New York to London, you'd 
          better send three together and transfer the passengers in 
          mid-flight as necessary." 
          "Ladies and Gentlemen, we request your patience at this time. 
          It should only have taken twenty minutes to change wings. 
          However, owing to an absolutely unthinkable and unforeseen 
          problem, we can't get the new ones on properly.  If you would 
          kindly disembark, you will be taken to the passenger lounge 
          where complimentary instant coffee will be served." 
          "Ladies and Gentlemen, owing to an utterly mystifying series of 
          events, our stock of spare hub caps has been found to be 
          exhausted.  However, a spare is being flown in from Karachi on 
          Thursday.  We do want you to know that this sort of thing 
          doesn't usually happen because we maintain stock levels that are 
          based on years of experience.  We know you find this comforting 
          and hope you will find your enforced sojourn in Thule to be an 
          unexpected pleasure." 
    Well, why is this so ridiculous?  Why do you expect so much more 
    reliability with an airplane than with a computer?  They aren't any 
    more expensive.  They are much more difficult to pilot.  They are not 
    kept in a special environment. 
    I say that the only reason is that airplane customers regard degrees 
    of reliability as unthinkable, while computer customers do not. 
    And the reason why they don't is that, they've been knocked on the 
    head so often, they are incapable of clear thought on the matter. 
    Well, my head is made of concrete, and my vision is quite clear.  It 
    is just as intolerable to allow the collection of gadgets we call a 
    computer to admit of unreliability, as it is to allow the collection 
    of devices we call an airplane to admit of unreliability. 
    So, to repeat myself, I expect from you simply - perfection! 
    Anticipating the howls of protest, I want to bring out the following 
    point.  It is a point which is not common currency, and one which you 
    may not recognize, or agree with, because you are too close to the 
    situation.  It is this:  The relationship between the field and the 
    plant is not conductive to satisfactory performance.  To put it more 
    plainly, you are not being supported properly by your people back at 
    the plant.  And while I regard you as partly responsible for this, I 
    really think that the people back at the ranch - Poughkeepsie, 
    Boulder, etc. - are mainly to blame. 
    As far as I am concerned, you are the people responsible for 
    reliability.  I can't afford to take any other point of view.  When 
    the machine is down, you are to blame.  But, privately, I recognize 
    the fact that you can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear, and if 
    Headquarters is in the pork business instead of the silkworm business, 
    then you don't stand much of a chance.  Privately, I recognize the 
    fact that reliability is a function of good design, manufacturing 
    excellence, quality control, etc.  However, you will never get me to 
    admit that on Boeing territory, precisely because I cannot allow 
    myself to get into the position of holding more than one person 
    responsible for reliability; or for anything else for that matter. 
    I have to force the system to work.  I refuse to crutch it by going 
    directly to your Engineering or Manufacturing people.  Anyway, your 
    company won't let me.  So I go to you and I demand perfection.  It is, 
    in turn, your responsibility to see to it that the machinery you 
    service is designed and fabricated properly.  It is this step that I 
    find lacking.  My experience has indicated to me that there is a very 
    poor relationship between home base and the colonies. 
    I don't say that Headquarters doesn't get to hear from you.  You wrap 
    every defective part in a pre-addressed box and ship it into the wide 
    blue yonder.  From a statistical point of view, Headquarters knows 
    what's going on quite accurately.  I don't doubt that.  What I do 
    doubt are two things, namely that you receive anything back from them 
    in the way of insight, visibility, statistics, etc., and that they 
    receive anything from you in the way of semantics.  By the latter, I 
    mean for example, they receive a defective five-cent console 
    typewriter connector - just like I'm wearing on my tie clip - and they 
    say, "This makes only 943 defective five-cent connectors this week. 
    We're down 7% on last week.  Keep up the good work, lads."  What they 
    don't receive is the information that has caused: 
          a.   the entire system to be unavailable for four hours at the 
               cost of $2,000; 
          b.   the rerunning of a two-hour job for $1,000; 
          c.   the delay of all scheduled work to the factory that day, 
               causing delays in the factory at the cost of $200,000. 
    How often have you ever told that to the factory?  How much vinegar do 
    you pour into the pipe-line?  Statistics, unaccompanied by semantics, 
    are a cold and lifeless thing, and your job is to breathe the breath 
    of life into your reports to awaken the Rip Van Winkles back home.  In 
    the meantime, my job is to render every assistance I can by pointing 
    out your shortcomings. 
    The second subtitle concerns itself with the importance of system 
    reliability and availability.  Obviously, the foregoing was 
    inextricably mixed with this subject because, really, what I expect 
    from Field Engineering is precisely that product-reliability and 
    availability.  However, there is a bit more to be told. 
    Firstly, I want to restate the fact that Boeing is committed to 
    computers.  There's no way back.  As computers became available, and 
    as we learned how to use them, we slowly hitched ourselves to their 
    tremendous power.  But, we didn't just replace the machines.  Rather, 
    we started doing our business in new ways.  We began to get used to 
    expecting new kinds of service.  New relationships got under way.  And 
    all this novelty was characterized by orders of magnitude of 
    difference in volumes of information, timeliness of information, and 
    reliability of information - both on the scientific and the commercial 
    side.  We can now do stress analysis using so many points that squads 
    of people would take lifetimes, by hand, to carry it out; and we can 
    do this overnight. 
    We process all the paperwork which the factory needs to bring the 
    parts to the right places at the right times, overnight.  The orders 
    for the day are out to the troops, before the troops come aboard every 
    single day.  And the orders are accurate.  The size of our final 
    assembly operations absolutely precludes the possibility of doing this 
    by hand.  If we were making one product with little change, it 
    wouldn't be such a problem, and everything would be part of a routine 
    cycle, but just about every airplane is different to its neighbor.  We 
    don't mass produce, we custom-build. 
    Now the great coincidence - a coincidence that is largely not 
    understood, even by many of our people - is that computers became 
    available just when they were wanted.  You see, you can't do the 
    stress analysis of a 707, 747, or SST, without a computer; and you 
    can't have a customer-oriented assembly line without one either. 
    Without the computer, airplane development would have come to a halt. 
    Neither can you have a Space program, or build thermo-nuclear devices. 
    This, I think, is a fundamental fact of modern life largely overlooked 
    by most people, including, I regret to say, the computer manufacturers 
    themselves.  That's why the sales talk still stresses 
    people-replacement and economy of the old thing, instead of capability 
    for the new thing. 
    So you see, there's no going back.  We are committed.  In order to 
    build airplanes you need people, buildings, tools, materials - and 
    computers.  And to weld these attributes into a viable unit, you must 
    plan and manage that plan, and this entails commitment.  And to commit 
    a computer is to state, categorically, that it shall function. 
    I hope you find this a simple message. 
    Secondly, I want to take up cudgels with your criteria.  I want to 
    discuss, for a moment, how you should be measured and how you should 
    be reported.  What is availability? 
    Each week at our IBM-Boeing Review Meeting, and each month at our 
    meeting with Buck Rodgers, we discuss the incidents of downtime, how 
    long devices were down, what went wrong, how you located the trouble, 
    what you did to fix it, and what you are going to do to prevent it 
    recurring.  All of this is necessary, useful activity, but it stops a 
    shade short of reality.  The quality of your work is displayed in 
    terms of graphs showing "availability" - and I say this in quotes - 
    and as this quantity increases by percent, we all sit back deluded by 
    the appearance of improvement, basking in the glory of our diagnostic 
    prowess.  Sometimes the graph of tape unit performance shows 99.9% 
    availability.  It sounds like a Russion election, and in a sense it 
    is, as I shall explain. 
    How come that, in a week of superb equipment "availability", it is 
    possible for our applications people to curse your very bones for 
    causing them daily delays in schedule?  Are they getting at the wrong 
    guy?  It doesn't seem justice does it?  But, the way we report things 
    today, it is only too possible.  You see, in a week of "high 
    availability", it isn't the total length of down time that causes the 
    trouble, it is the frequency.  If a tape unit goes down, I don't 
    really care how long it is down, provided the others continue to 
    function.  If it's down, get it out of the way and don't bring it back 
    until you can guarantee it.  So it can well happen that "availability" 
    is down but Worsing is "happy" - I put that in quotes, too, you 
    understand. 
    What causes the trouble is the eye-blink downtime in the middle of the 
    two-hour run.  The eye-blinks don't integrate into anything 
    displayable in charts each week, but the consequent reruns can add up 
    to disaster.  So the true availability is total time, minus rerun and 
    delay time.  That's the way you should really be judged. 
    There are some complications, of course.  You can complain that if you 
    luck out, the eye-blinks will occur in two-minute runs so that total 
    rerun and delay time is not the measure.  Perhaps frequency is a 
    better measure. 
    Then again, it is difficult to obtain some of the numbers.  Tape 
    parity errors, for instance, to state the richest source of our 
    displeasure.  I will be dealing with this problem in detail at the end 
    of my talk. 
    Whether you can see all the answers or not, at least I hope that you 
    can see the need for reliability and the need, accurately, to portray 
    availability. 
    Now I come to the thorny subject of engineering changes.  Engineering 
    changes are regarded as necessary for four reasons, namely: 
    capability, error-correction, reliability, and serviceability.  I'll 
    take each in turn. 
    As far as capability is concerned, and I take this basically to mean 
    speed, I am not interested.  Don't waste computer time speeding up the 
    circuitry.  I ordered the machines according to a schedule of speed 
    specifications and I'm content with that.  The only exception to that 
    general rule is where you have a design mistake, and the machine has 
    timing troubles.  Of course, you have to fix that, but that comes 
    under error-correction. 
    If you want to speed things up significantly, put all the E.C.'s on in 
    the factory, give the machine a new name and replace the one in house. 
    Then I'm never down. 
    Regarding error-corrections, these, of course, have to be made; and if 
    they are few in number, please install them promptly.  If they are not 
    few in number, then I am the possessor of a citrus fruit and I want 
    neither peel nor pip of it.  Get it out after you've got its 
    replacement up and running, and don't have the effrontery to ask for 
    any rent. 
    I think by far the greatest E.C. activity is in the realm of 
    reliability.  I think you can always find ways of making the machine 
    more rugged.   When you build a new model, you like to use the most 
    advanced technology available, consistent with cost and risk.  And, by 
    definition, this means technology untried in the field.  And, in turn, 
    this implies a more than marginal propensity for trouble, particularly 
    in the early stages. 
    It goes without saying, then, that reliability improvements are going 
    to be rife in the first year to any model.  We have seen this quite 
    dramatically in the case of the model 75.  When it first hit the floor 
    it was, frankly, a totally useless machine.  Its central circuitry was 
    just not up to the trask required of it.  But, since the repopulation 
    in March, it has become perhaps the best of all the 360's despite its 
    speed.  Again, in the case of the 91, you threw some $24 million worth 
    of parts into the Hudson - that's a pretty expensive form of pollution 
    by the way - for the same reason. 
    But when should the stream of reliability E.C.'s begin to dry up?  I 
    ask this, not as a rhetorical question, but for understanding.  I 
    really don't know, and I think a frank statement of IBM's goals and 
    expectations with respect to the 360 is about due.  The big machines 
    have been out for over a year now, and I think IBM should know enough 
    to be able to tell us. 
    When you design a machine for a new technology, you don't know what 
    the problems are going to be, so you don't know what troubles you are 
    going to have fixing the problems; hence, the fourth type of 
    engineering, change for serviceability.  If the only way to change the 
    hammers is to hang upside down on a rope from a pully in the ceiling, 
    then you obviously have to install an E.C., ie, you have to strengthen 
    the ceiling. 
    Serviceability means more diagnostics in the allotted preventive 
    maintenance period, and less time needed to locate and repair faults. 
    So, let's have serviceability engineering changes. 
    Having covered the reasons for E.C.'s, I now want to mention the vexed 
    problems of scheduling the time needed to install them.  What are the 
    premises?  Certainly, if the need for improvement is recognized, the 
    improvement should be incorporated.  But, if the machine has been 
    working reasonably well since the need was recognized, one more day 
    won't do it any harm. 
    Parenthetically, if it hasn't been working well, then the E.C. is not 
    regarded as such, but as part of a program to get the machine up and 
    running.  Furthermore, it takes time to install changes, and I don't 
    want to use more time in installation than I save by installation. 
    And I want preventive maintenance time taken entirely for preventive 
    maintenance.  I can only allow E.C. installation provided the standard 
    crew performs its  normal procedures without any interference.  In 
    addition, E.C's, by their very nature, change the machine to something 
    different, and the consequences of this cannot be predicted with 
    complete accuracy; therefore, I cannot be certain that the machine 
    will recover from the trauma. 
    This is a pretty formidable set of conditions and restraints, and I 
    have no formula for success.  What I think I would prefer to do is 
    give me: 
          a.   A plan of philosophy and expectations for each machine, 
               updated as experience is acquired. 
          b.   A statement of the risks involved in allowing E.C.'s to 
               accumulate. 
          c.   A general plan for acquiring the time to install the main 
               bulk of the E.C.'s, and 
          d.   A coordinate schedule for the installation of E.C.'s 
               requiring lengthy installation, or having high probability 
               of causing subsequent morning sickness. 
    That concludes all I have to say concerning engineering changes and 
    leads me to the next topic, that of preventive maintenance. 
    I understand the need for preventive maintenance, and am happy to 
    schedule a period each day for its execution.  This is supposed to 
    purchase my ticket to perfection, reliability, availability, and all 
    stations to happiness.  What you do with your preventive maintenance 
    time is not regarded as any affair of mine.  I put on my walking shoes 
    and I sneak past squads of engineers armed to the teeth with 
    ringbinders and scopes, but I never intrude.  And if all were well, 
    I'd stay clear out of the way.  But it isn't.  How many times does a 
    device that has been running perfectly all week, crop out within the 
    first hour of preventive maintenance on Friday?  And not just trivial 
    devices, either.  How often has the two-hour preventive maintenance 
    period been followed by a four-hour post-p.m. recovery session? 
    Now, I'm the first to admit the existence of Heisenburg's Principle: 
    You can't measure the temperature of the bath water without changing 
    it, and I suppose you can't test equipment without imposing some 
    strain on it.  But sometimes I think you're too brutal. You seem to 
    split the patient's head to find out if he has any brains. 
    But it seems computers are designed for smooth running, not for 
    diagnosing.  Perhaps we need a diagnostic-oriented computer.  We 
    already have primitive diagnostic circuitry in some of the 360's. 
    Perhaps this is the first step towards the fail-softness you keep 
    telling me is just around the corner. 
    But today I get the very definite feeling: a) that the machine hates 
    being tampered with and, b) that your techniques aren't sufficiently 
    scientific or comprehensive. 
    Why should we have better diagnostic programs than you?  But we have. 
    By your own admission, there's no better diagnostic than a production 
    program, but you can have a copy of that program any time you like. 
    You have access to everything we've got, plus your own staff, so 
    really there's no excuse for handing over the machines to us without a 
    guarantee of current perfection, is there? 
    What is haunting both of us, I think - and here I find myself banded 
    with you against our common enemy, the Poughkeepsie Business Machine 
    Company - is that with today's machines, it is very difficult to tell 
    sometimes whether the machine is up or not.  Tapes may be spinning, 
    messages frantically typing themselves on the first generation console 
    typewriter - they're so cryptic anyway as to be indistinguishable from 
    random sequences, lights flashing, yet nothing but chaos being 
    created.  Another way of expressing this, perhaps, is that production 
    work looks pretty chaotic.  We're OK when we get a hard stop.  All 
    systems are stop, we fill out a card, hand it to the C.E.'s, and go 
    off for a smoke.  But IBM has invented a thing that I hereby name the 
    "soft stop".  It's dead, but gives all impressions of being alive - 
    like some people I know.  It takes very clever operators, assisted by 
    Knowledgeable software people often, to issue the death certificate. 
    What's it going to be like with multiprogramming?  Have you considered 
    this problem in the multiprogramming environment? 
    My mind boggles at the contemplation of the interaction of coexistent 
    programs on a soft machine.  are you equal to the task?  Or are you 
    going to be a reincarnation of the Grand Old Duke of York? 
    Well, to summarize my thoughts on preventive maintenance, I will 
    merely repeat that I'm in favor of it, but I feel that there is still 
    plenty of scope and requirements for improvements in your use of the 
    time. 
    My last subtitle is what I think of the 360.  This, of course, is 
    really a speech in its own right.  I don't have time to give more than 
    a brief summary here today. 
    Firstly, I think it is appropriate to state my reasons for choosing 
    the 360 in the first place.  We chose it for its peripherals. 
    Peripherals are the key to data processing, not main frames.  I should 
    point out here that I do not regard the 360 as a computer, and for 
    that reason, we do not use it as such.  We do our computing, our 
    arithmetic that is, on the machine of another vendor.  The 360 has a 
    short word-length.  It is a hexadecimal machine which makes it 
    effectively even shorter, and it does not have floating-point round. 
    You can say that the model 91 commits round-off error faster than 
    anything on the face of the earth, while the first lecture in the 
    introductory course of any Numerical Analysis Program states that this 
    is the fundamental problem of computation, and the source of all evil. 
    It is one of the curious mysteries of IBM, the omission of rounding in 
    the 360.  It would be less of a mystery if IBM were to come right out 
    and say that the 360 is intended for data processing and not for 
    computing. 
    However, back to the mainframe theme.  Data processing is essentially 
    the business of obtaining correct bits, storing them on something for 
    periods of time, and being able to read them from storage whenever I 
    like.  Questions of language and speed are secondary.  The question of 
    reliability, as you know by now, is the primary one. 
    As you also probably know, the most unreliable device in data 
    processing is the conventional half-inch magnetic tape.  This has 
    caused The Boeing Company's Commercial Airplane Division more trouble 
    by an order of magnitude than anything else.  It suffers from problems 
    of environment (dust particles), electronics (it is highly analog 
    rather than digital), mechanical wear (oxide on the tape), mechanical 
    obstinancy (reels spinning in opposite directions).  Half-inch 
    magnetic tape, even today, is a Rube Goldberg device, very little 
    removed from the string-and-pulley device of fifteen years ago.  Yet 
    we continue to commit the invaluable information of the company to its 
    rugged surface.  You might just as well put to sea in a sieve! 
    So that was the first problem to solve.  We had to get off the 
    conventional half-inch magnetic tape onto some sort of twentieth 
    century device.  And if this were all we achieved by going 360, it 
    would still be a significant improvement to the business of designing 
    and building airplanes. 
    We looked at all the gadgets being offered by the manufacturers, and 
    we formed the opinion that hypertape and the 2314 were the things we 
    needed to replace the 729.  So, quite categorically, I say that we 
    embarked upon the nightmare of conversion to get our hands and our 
    data on hypertape and 2314's. 
    But, when you stand back and survey the scene in perspective, why did 
    we have to change so much else just to do that?  The only admissable 
    answer to that is a long term one; you want these devices usable with 
    a lot of other devices, and the 7080's and 7094's couldn't begin to 
    support them.  So you had to have a more sophisticated device to 
    operate these peripherals, and we call that device the 360.  However, 
    as a short-term proposition going from 36 to 32 bits, binary to 
    hexadecimal, commercial translator to COBOL, control cards to Job 
    Control Language, is proving a traumataic experience, and in the year 
    that we've had the heavy-frame 360's, we have made no discernable 
    progress in unloading the 7080's.  And some people have even had the 
    misfortune of following IBM's advice to convert to PL/1.  I think 
    that's about the only mistake we didn't make. 
    It hasn't been easy, but at least we are now using hypertape and 
    2314's on a daily basis and, so far, these devices have lived up to 
    our expectations.  We are cycling the hyper cartridges through a 
    testing and stripping operation on a monthly basis.  We don't adtually 
    strip them like we do 729 tape, we merely punch a new hole further 
    along the tape. 
    One somewhat puzzling fact that might be of interest is that, as far 
    as I know, there are only two installations that use hypertape, namely 
    the Internal Revenue and the Commercial Airplane Division of The 
    Boeing Company.  Aren't other people having the same trouble with tape 
    as we are?  Isn't their data as valuable?  Or is it that they don't 
    have such critical deadlines as we do and can afford to rerun. 
    To the Internal Revenue, on the other hand, information is everything. 
    The value of the data far exceeds the additional cost of hyper, and 
    they have paid whatever it takes to get the best reliability 
    available, and that's what we have done.  The fact that no one else 
    has does not worry me unduly.  We've always led the world at Renton, I 
    regret to say. 
    One aspect does worry me though, and that is IBM's understanding of 
    what it is doing.  Hypertape is the principle reason for going 360 at 
    the world's largest computing center, yet IBM doesn't even support 
    hyper.  We have dragged hypertape, kicking and screaming, on to the 
    360 and the only help we get from IBM is local support.  None of the 
    versions of OS/360 that leave Poughkeepsie have the vaguest awareness 
    of hypertape, so we have to glue it on ourselves at Sys. Gen. time. 
    This is a particular example of the general malaise in IBM and, I 
    think, in the other manufacturers - they don't know what computers are 
    for.  They have little understanding of applications, even less of 
    software, less still of the concept of total systems.  I'm still 
    uneasily suspicious that, to the manufacturers, a better computer is a 
    faster C.P.U.  This is certainly true so far with respect to the 91, 
    and that is why we have deferred and modified our order for two.  No 
    consideration at all has yet been given to the problem of how to get 
    data into, and out of, the computer.  The sole design criterion of the 
    91 was a fast arithmetic unit.  This worries me.  It worries me 
    greatly.  It undermines my confidence.  "What are they going to do 
    next?" I ask.  You must remember, we have very little control of our 
    computing environment. 
    All we can do is take what the manufacturers offer.  We do not have 
    the surplus to design computers or write software.  We have no 
    influence over those who do.  We pay out the equivalent of four 707's 
    each year in rental, but that does not buy us one cent's worth of 
    influence or control.  My company is absolutely, irrevokably, 
    committed to computers, but it has very limited voice in what a 
    computer shall look like, and no assurance at all that its needs of 
    the future shall be satisfied.  For example, right now, we just can't 
    get 2314's, and there are no packs available for the 2311. 
    To return to the positive aspects of the 360, our second reason for 
    choosing it was that it would enable us better to map over the 
    operations in the factory to the operations in the computer.  The 
    factory is a continuous thing, but all we've been able to do hitherto 
    is to model it in a very discontinuous way.  We would punch up a lot 
    of cards and run them on  the machine once a day.  It's like taking 
    one breath a day and hoping to stay alive.  But that's all you could 
    do on a large scale on the old machines.  Now we have the capability 
    of designing systems that will produce the results that the factory 
    needs on a time scale that suits the factory, rather than one that 
    suits the computing department.  So we have begun installing model 
    20's and 30's as remote card readers and printers, alongside the 
    1030's and 1050's already hooked to the 1460's.  We have just started 
    to use the 2321 Data Cell Drive, but it's too early to say anything 
    about that yet. 
    In time, we will know how to use this rich array of devices.  It will 
    no longer be necessary to prescribe leeches for every ailment, instead 
    we'll let the punishment fit the crime. 
    We'll know enough about the economics.  We hope we'll be able to find 
    out how many to order of a particular device to ensure the 
    availability of one.  We hope that our programmers will have mastered 
    the subtleties of Job Control Language.  But, when the day of 
    revelation dawns, please don't announce System/7.2832, the 9-bit 
    bytes, PL/2, Supertape, Dinky Disk, Data Jail, excommunication devices 
    and voice input - however trivial the conversion.  We have enough to 
    keep us busy for the next decate, and all we need from the 
    manufacturer is unprecedented availability.  You, the purveyors of 
    availability, are now in the forefront of the struggle to make this 
    vast complex of possibilities a viable, economic reality.  I am sure 
    you are equal to the challenge, and I am confident of your continuing 
    ability to ensure its eventual success. 
    I thank you deeply for the opportunity of conveying these thoughts, 
    impressions, criticisms, questions and aspirations which I hope have 
    been taken in the spirit given, and would be happy to engage in 
    vigorous debate or discussion if there are any questions from your 
    side. 
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