Conference cookie::notes$archive:cd_v1

310.0. "CD Production Bottlenecks" by TLE::CLARK (Ward Clark) Wed Mar 19 1986 09:45

Newsgroups: net.audio
Path: decwrl!decvax!ittatc!dcdwest!sdcsvax!sdcrdcf!hplabs!hao!seismo
      !ut-sally!ut-ngp!shell!graffiti!buck
Posted: 16 Mar 86 04:06:33 GMT
Organization: Information Brokerage Network, Houston, TX
 
I attended the First Internation Conference on CD-ROM sponsored by Microsoft a
couple of weeks ago, and lots of information about the CD market was discussed.
 
I did not get the impression that Philips and Sony are trying to limit the
production.  Edward Rothchild, publisher of Optical Memory News, gave an
introduction to the market forces.  He showed slides listing the ~14 working CD
plants in the world, and another set of slides that listed the ~44(!) CD plants
that were under construction or seriously being planned.  Later he mentioned
that several people came up after his talk and said "But you didn't mention the
CD plant we are planning...".  Of course, not all these plants will be built,
and a plant takes some time to build its capacity.  Even the operating plants
vary widely in their current production.  Nevertheless, it is possible we can
look forward to a collapse in CD prices in a year or two, similar perhaps to
what happened in the 5.25" floppy disk market some time back.  Another
newsletter publisher wondered privately what would happen when CD capacity met
current demand *and* all the old albums had been converted and pressed.  Since
they don't wear out, will there be a declining demand for CD's once everything
old has been converted? 
 
As another little tidbit, 3M has a new CD ROM plant in Menomenie, WI which also
does CD audio to fill in the schedule while CD ROM ramps up.  Their price list
for CD audio is currently $2500 for mastering a disk, $4.00/disk (quantity
1000-5000) negotiable above 5000, and a 20 working day turnaround.  Jewel box is
$.25 extra.  This doesn't sound too bad for something that must be made in clean
room conditions, etc. 
 
In general, Philips, Sony, et al. simply didn't plan on the demand for CD audio
and they didn't plan on the number of disks everyone who has a player wants.
Since this is the fastest growing consumer electronics item ever (displacing
VCR's from that spot), we should not fault the industry that much. 
 
A. Lester Buck