| Yeah. I think there will be a radical slowdown. Not for lack of
creativity. More for lack of money, time and other resources on the
part of consumers. Remember when some labor groups were predicting
that with all these advances we'd have shorter work weeks and more
spare time? HA! Pick two: time, money, MIDI.
Steve
|
| I predict the opposite, but I expect the bulk of the growth to occur
at the "low end". I think we are going to see a replay of what's
happened with cameras - the proliferation of relatively cheap "do
it all for you" instruments that relieve people of the need to
understand the technology in any depth.
But, just as autofocus autoexposure autoadvance doesn't make you
see any better (or teach you how compose an image, or how to break
the "rules" when the creative opportunity calls for it, etc.), what
we will get is a flood of mediocre folk art destined for highly
localized consumption. There will still be a modest, not growing
very much market for "pro" or "serious amateur" instruments (like
the Nikon F4 in the camera world) that are well beyond the reach
of all but the most serious practitioners; the midrange will fall
out, and a lot of us will make do with nominally "obsolete" but
still quite serviceable technology (e.g., no F4 likely for me in
the near future, but my F3 and FA will keep me going quite nicely
for a long time yet), because the new gear is either too restrictive
or too expensive for our needs.
The bulk of the industry will focus on the low end, where large
production runs can amortize the development costs. The high end
will get even higher, in all respects.
len.
|