Conference hydra::dejavu

Well, one interesting technique that you might try is to take cards numbered
from 1 through 36 and put them in a container and without looking at them
pull out six that "feel" right to you.
	It couldn't hurt, and if you *do* have a touch of precognition ...
	I'll be satisfied with a 1% suggestion fee. :-)

Steve Kallis, Jr.

	I have tried that already.  I hung it in my office and called it 
my "MEGA-BAG".  We had a number of people doing all their drawing from it.
And as they drew their number we would write it with their initials on a 
greace board.  Well one night one of the contestants went back late one
"drawing" night and changed his number to the winning number drawn.  The
next morning I came in and reviewed the numbers and was shocked to see his
number the winner.  Within an hour everyone in the office was so excited to
have a winner in their group.  The criminal came in late and their we all were
waiting for him.  He played dumb and said he left his ticket at home for which
he immediately went back to get.  All the while the word is spreading that he
won and he is back home trying to figure out a way toget out of this one.  He
came back saying he didn't play it and someone pulled a dirty trick.  It took 
him a while but he finally fessed up.
						To-Good-To-Be-True
							Jorge'

Yes, but did they draw at random or did they try to "sense" which cards
felt right to them?  It shouldn't be on slips of paper, and the person
drawing the numbers should try for a sign, such as a single card feeling
"hotter" or "stickier" than others.

Anybody can draw numbers at random.

Steve Kallis, Jr.

	It was slips at random.  I'll try it and see what happens.

							Jorge'

OK, I'll give it a try.  This is pretty close to the "forced choice"
experimental technique in parapsychology so I'll try to put together some
factors which are suspected of, or have been shown to, help in these
situations.

Please note that at best these techniques will slightly improve your chances
of hitting the jackpot, they might be, say 1.5 million to one rather than
1.9 million to one.

The following factors are known or suspected of increasing success: relaxed
atmosphere, diffusion of responsibility and lack of guilt.

Have a party and invite five friends.  Eat, drink and be merry.  When things
have gotten going and everyone is feeling relaxed it is time to play the "game."

The object of the game is to try to guess the megabucks numbers, but everyone
should be aware that the chances are small even with psychic help.  Otherwise,
people are likely to get too serious and that's sure to interfere.  The real
point of the game is to play the game and to provide an excuse for the party
(you might even make it a regular thing), winning would be a bonus, like when
you play solitaire.

As a preliminary, everyone must agree that any winnings are to be divided
seven ways: one share for each person in the group and one for a charity which
everyone agrees is worthwhile.  I might suggest Children's Hospital.  The
reason for the charity is that people, at least some people, feel guilty,
consciously or unconsciously, about making money psychically.  This is
intended to compensate for that: part of the money is for charity, after all.

Now for the way the game is played.  Take a deck of thirty-six playing cards
on which the numbers from one to thirty-six have been written.  Initially
blank cards are nice if you have them, but there is nothing wrong with marking
up an ordinary deck.  Have each person select a card from the deck, replacing
the card and shuffling before the next person draws.  Let each person use
whatever strategy they are comfortable with: a quick cut, a careful feeling
for special cards or whatever.  Once a card is selected, however, it should be
counted.  Add up the numbers drawn and find the remainder when divided by 36
(zero counts as 36).  This is the first number.  Repeat the process for the
second number and so on.  If you get a repeat (there's about a 50% chance that
you'll get a repeat at least once) draw an extra number.

This procedure is designed so that any single person in the group can cause
the "correct" number to be drawn, even if everyone else is being non-psychic
on that draw.  Furthermore, no individual can be sure that they were
responsible for the result.  There is a fair amount of evidence that people
get better results if they can "diffuse" the responsibility.

Now everyone ante's up and the number is bet on.  In the meantime, continue
your party.

If you win, be sure to keep your commitments: try to avoid the possibility of
precognition paradoxes.

	    Topher

If ypu can't do a party, a "solitaire" alternate:

	Watch an entertaining TV show for a while.  Before the show is over,
pick up your card deck.  Shuffle or otherwise fool around with the cards 
until they're mixed.  Following the show (a good sitcom is probably the
best, because it'll both keep you "up" and relaxed), pull out your cards.
My advice is pull out the cards that "feel right" to you.

	Then mark down the numbers.  The idea of promising something to charity
is a good idea, but only if you don't visualize it as "paying off the dealer"
for dealing you the Winning Hand.

	For card marking, approaches:

	At some joke/novelty stores, you can get blank cards.  Then, you
can use 36 of 'em.

	You coulkd use the Tarot deck.  Start with the Major Arcana, with The 
Fool following as Arcanum #22, then add pentacles to reach 36 (e.g., Ace =
22+1 or 23, Knight = 22+12 or 34).

My node dropped out, so the latter part of .6 got scrambled.

	The third approach is to use standard playing cards, three suits from
1 through 10; the fourth, 1 through 6.  One scheme:

Diamonds = 1 through 10; hearts = 11 through 20; clubd = 21 through 30;
spades = 31 through 36.

Good luck!

Steve Kallis, Jr.

	And now that the heat's died down, one can try again.

	For the DAILY numbers, by the way, use an ordinary deck of cards,
1 through 10 of each suit.  You could either make up a hierarchy of suits
for "exact order" or pick up the for cards as a hand and read what you get.
The "10"s would stand for "0" in this sceme.

Steve Kallis, Jr.

For future reference in playing megabucks, try using numbers you may have
dreamed about the night before, i.e., someones birthday, a time that something
happened, etc.  My mother is famous for playing her numbers this way and
has been somewhat successful.  She has never hit the jackpot, but has never
lost her dollar she started out with.  The other night she dreamed of looking
at the clock and seeing 3:25 and played those two numbers.  It's worth a
try, it couldn't hurt.  I myself have not tried this yet, as I have a hard
time remembering what I dreamed about at all.

Lots of luck!

Darlene

just a little information that i heard about megabucks.
on my way to work one day... i turned on the station WZOU...
Karen Blake was just reading a newspaper and read about a phsycic that could
fortell the future and her advertisement lead one to believe that she was
always correct.  So.... Ms. Blake phoned this woman and asked the woman if
she could "predict" something. The woman said yes... Karen then asked her
to predict the megabucks number (30 million jackpot, i think) and then told
the woman that the numbers picked would have to be between 1 and 36 and that
only 6 numbers were needed.....

	The womans first number  was ----     37!!

re .10:

	If called on it, the woman might have said, "I mean `3,' `7' ...."

	According to Sturgeon's Law (first enunciated by the late Theodore
Sturgeon in 1957), "... 90 percent of everything is [crud]...."  This is
true of self-styled psychics.  Particularly in the area of precognition,
"the empty barrel makes the loudest noise."  Those with a significant ability
sdon't advertise; the Jean Dixons of the world do.

Steve Kallis, Jr.

    An update/observation:
    
    I haven't heard of anyone winning Megabucks from among the DEJAVUers.
    Perhaps that's because wanting $1 million +.  Perhaps something
    more modest, like the daily numbers, etc.
    
    Any experiences here?
    
    Steve Kallis, Jr
    

    My daughter and I went for a walk down to the corner store to get
    her a tonic. I do not buy the state scratch tickets but when i went
    into the store for some reason i had to have one of those tickets
    i can't explain the feeling that came over me. (all can be verified
    by the store owner) i gave my dollar scrathed the ticket and won
    $500!!!

    Re .13:
    
    Perhaps.  I had a different experience.  I'd sent my (then) fiancee
    (now wife) to visit her sister.  The ticket, which I charged, came
    to about $400.  I suddenly was hit with some bills, and that $400
    charge was looming over me like a sword of Damocles.  So I bought
    a scratch ticket on a hunch and got $500, which took care of the
    debt.  However, that's "hunching."
    
    I was thinking of something less spontaneous.  More like hitting
    the dailies or some such.
    
    Steve Kallis, Jr.
    

    My wife's aunt has twice dreamed numbers for megabucks, written
    them down and them never made it to the store to play it. You guessed
    it, it came in both times. She also has had it happen to her numerous 
    times with the daily number. She laughs about it, I told her if she
    ever does it again let me know, I'll make record time to the store.
    She has not had this happen to her since she told us about it.
    
    Ed

	hate to be the spoiler but mathematics rule here and
your odds are always 1 in aprox 1.9 million no matter how you get
the set of numbers.

RE: .16
    
    Maybe yes, and maybe no.
    
    There are several thousand experiments in the literature, seemingly
    of the same or better quality as the experiments in any other field,
    which indicate that people frequently do somewhat better than chance
    in guessing the outcome of "random" experiments.
    
    You can join the ranks of the critics, if you wish, who claim that
    because they already know that the results of those experiments
    are false, one can conclude that the experiments were bungled or
    fraudulent.  One can, naturally, take the same approach on any set
    of experiments whose results you disagree with (of course, it *is*
    made easier by the current ignorance of parapsychology of some of
    the factors which result in success or failure, and an inability
    to manipulate effectively some of those we do know about).
    
    In other words, your "spoiler" represents belief -- perhaps correct,
    though, obviously, I don't think so -- rather than knowledge.  Though
    few will put it quite so baldly, the serious critics (Hyman, Gardner,
    Hansel, etc.) will admit, if pressed, that the foundation for their
    criticism is special standards for parapsychology applied because
    of their a priori beliefs (you know the line "extraordinary claims
    require extraordinary proof" but by who's judgement is a claim with
    no a priori contrary evidence to be judged extraordinary?)
    
    Of course, even granting the evidence for ESP and PK, there is a
    question about whether it applies to the seemingly similar situation
    of picking a Mega-bucks winner.  Furthermore, the size of the effect
    commonly found in the these experiments would, as I indicated, only
    slightly improve you're odds -- perhaps enough to reach breakeven
    expected winnings perhaps not.
    
    					Topher
    

    Re .18:
    
    An absolutely mathematically _provable_ way to "win" Megabucks is
    as follows:
    
    Place a bet on every combination. (approximate cost, $1.9 million)
    Then, you can't lose.
    
    This would be a good strategy in the case there was a very high
    Megabucks pot.
    
    Of course, you'd have to hope nobody else hit the combination ...
    
    Steve Kallis, Jr.
    

    Re .19:
    
>    Place a bet on every combination. (approximate cost, $1.9 million)
>    Then, you can't lose.
    
    Of course, it will take a fair amount of time to place 1.9 million
    bets.  I'd go for the Wednesday drawing ... the prize is usually
    smaller, but you have one more day to mark and submit tickets.

    Terry

    Just so no one misinterprets what I was saying before --
    
    THERE IS NO "FORMULA" WHICH WILL ALLOW YOU TO PICK A WINNING MEGABUCKS
    NUMBER MORE OFTEN THAN CHANCE.  NO SYSTEM BASED ON THE PREVIOUS
    DRAWS GIVES YOU ANY BETTER ODDS OF HITTING THE RIGHT NUMBER.  THE
    PROBABLITY THAT A PARTICULAR COMBINATION WILL COME UP IS COMPLETELY
    UNEFFECTED EITHER BY IT HAVING COME UP THE DAY BEFORE OR IT NEVER
    HAVING COME UP.
    
    To increase your odds of hitting the winning number you have to
    get information about that particular drawing.  The people who run
    the various lotteries are very careful to make them "fair", which
    means that no information actually exists which can give you an
    edge.  Perhaps, just perhaps, psi might allow you to temporarily
    "create" such information or "borrow" it from the future.  Under
    the conditions of the "forced choice" ESP tests, and the lotteries
    seem to be very similar, the very "best" psychics seem to be able
    to create one or two bits of information, which is an edge.  BUT
    to win Megabucks (a Mass. state lottery requiring the winner to
    choose correctly 6 different numbers between 1 and 36 in order to
    win) you need to "create" about 21 bits of information.  Sometimes
    people seem to be able to do this spontaneously, but with this type
    of "hard" information, even the very best cannot apparently do so
    at will.
    
    There are mathematical ways of taking advantage of the parimutual
    nature of most lotteries, and the non-randomness of most bettors,
    to increase your expected winnings.  Given the large cut taken out
    for profits and administrative costs, plus taxes after the fact,
    it is very hard to push this into an area where you wouldn't still
    expect to lose money -- generally these techniques are useful only
    for allowing you to lose less.
    
    					Topher

    On winning Megabucks by playing all the combinations...
    
    A little math will allow you to verify the following:
    
    Between Midnight Saturday night and 9:40 Wednesday evening there
    are 93 hours, 40 minutes which equals 337,200 seconds.  It's been
    my experience that, on the average, the Lottery computers take about
    5 seconds per 6 bet ticket.  This means that 5 people entirely
    dedicated to the task (assuming you can find five ticket vendors
    willing to dedicate round the clock help to you, non-stop, from
    midnight Saturday to 9:40 PM Wednesday), if they stopped for nothing,
    could accomplish getting the tickets in during the time you have
    between drawings.  I think you'd have a hard time finding someone
    who could process a ticket every 5 seconds without a break for almost
    94 stright hours.  And you'd have to find 5 of them.
    
    	The box to hold the betting slips, for each person, would have
    to be about 8 cubic feet, plus each person would need $380,000,
    probably in small bills, since most White Hen Pantry's won't take
    a bill over $50.
    
    	To fill out all the slips, and verify them for accuracy (if
    you miss even one combination, Murphy will most certainly take care
    of you..the one you missed will be drawn) would take weeks.  You
    probably wouldn't be able to fill them all out once you knew the
    pot was big..you would have to be previously prepared.
    
    	Lastly, you get about $50,000 per year for every million you
    win.  Since you can by a $1,000,000 annuity which is what the State
    does, for about $700,000, you'd need to win at least $3,000,000
    to break even with what you could have done without all this effort.
    Big pots, at least historically, seem to have many winners.  If
    I remember correctly, the $30,000,000 jackpot being discussed in
    previous replies was won by something like 8 people...around $3,500,000
    each.  Not a very good return on investment.
    
    	The moral of this story is that, unless you DO have PSI, I wouldn't
    bother investing in Megabucks on anything other than a hunch...there
    is no sure way to win! 

RE: .22
    
    Actually the pot has to be "sweeter" than that.  You have to take
    the governments' cuts into account.  You have to figure your return
    *after* taxes to figure out the break even point.  If you have $1.9M
    and invest it as proposed you will get back an annuity worth $1.9M
    which will then be taxed at 30%+ leaving you worse off then before.
    
    					Topher

         I suggest reading note 358.88 for creating an abundant reality.
    Logic has nothing to do with it.  Ego has everything to do with
    not having one.  Learn how to hold impeccable thoughts.  Learn how
    to have loving thoughts, free of ego manipulations, etc.  Learn
    how to communicate with your Higher Self and/or God/Goddess/All-That-Is
    and how to go into your sub-conscious mind to extract whatever
    information it already holds for the reality you wish to create.
      
    (Learn to deal  with the IRS and taxes similarly.)
      
    Frederick
    

    Two New Year's ago, Colorado had a special New Year's lottery ticket.
    I was working part-time for $4/hour; was never sure if I would be able
    to make rent, let alone eat and drive my car to interviews.  I received
    a ticket as a Christmas present.  During this period of time, I
    learned a lot about trusting the Universe.  Somehow, something good
    always happened, and I was able to maintain my apartment...I didn't
    get to eat as much, but was still well-fed; friends invited me to
    dinner a bit more often, too.
    
    This particular New Year's, I was about $90 short for the monthly
    bills.
    
    I won $100 in the lottery.  Never won as much before, and haven't,
    since.

    Another secretary in the building here saw a psychic at a party
    this past weekend, asked him off-the-wall what his prediction was
    for the 6 numbers to be drawn last Saturday night in the 28,000,000
    Michigan lotto, and she played those 6 numbers.
    
    4 of them came in and she won $96.
    
    Now, ask me my opinion of using this type of a talent for financial
    gain...  : (
    
    Doug

    I thought I would throw in a couple of MEGABUCKS suggestions:
    
    	1)  I suggest that if you want to have a better chance at winning
    	    that you play a number I do not. {;-)  I begin to suspect I 
    	    have a negative ability to pick megabucks numbers.  I haven't
    	    even seen a free ticket in ages.  This will at least make
    	    your chances 1 in 1947792 - *1*!  
    
    	2)  Maybe you want to pick a group of 6 numbers such that all
    	    36 numbers are represented.  Now you just have to squoosh
    	    them all on to one card!  This doesn't help me either. I
    	    can now make your odds 1 in 1947792 - *6*! {:-)  This idea 
    	    may help if you have negative abilities like I do.  Maybe 
    	    you will pick all the wrong numbers first leaving the 6 good
    	    ones (ha!).  Anybody here good at conditional probabilities?
    	    I tried to solve the problem of picking 6 tickets which
    	    encompass all 36 numbers.  I was able to convince myself
    	    that your chance of picking the winning number was still
    	    the 1 in 1947792 but was not able to figure out if picking
    	    your numbers in this manner was better then picking 6 random
    	    numbers (6 in 1947792).  Better being defined as having
    	    a better probability of winning *some* $$$ prize.  This got
    	    too complicated for me.  If anybody is better than I at 
    	    probability, I would like to see the math.  It would seem
    	    that having all 36 numbers on the 6 tickets might change
    	    something, but for good or ill I don't know.  Probably 
    	    the fact of having all 36 included is offset by the fact
    	    that once you pick one of the necessary 6 numbers it is
    	    not available for any other card. Thus, once you pick a
    	    card with less than the 6 required numbers the other 5 
    	    cards are worthless as well.  Not true if you pick 6 random
    	    numbers.
    
    My solution to the Megabucks problem, currently, is to just pick a
    few numbers that "feel" right.  I do this only on, at least, double
    pots.  Probability at least tells my "expected value" is approaching
    my $1 (I never got rigorous about factoring in the time value of
    money.  i.e. $1 million <> $1 million over 20 years!).  That way I 
    avoid the trap of "missing" winning because "my number" came in.
    
    Lastly, the one and only time I ever won any money ($40) at megabucks, 
    I was at my in-laws.  I was perusing the newspaper, the Lynn Item,
    which has a Meganalysis or some such nonsense.  Well I noticed about
    4 of my numbers were "due" (had not shown up recently).  So I said
    to everyone "well, according to this I am going to win some money
    at megabucks today." and I went out and got my favorite (at the
    time) 6 numbers (our 2 birthdays and our anniversary).  Bingo.
    
    Stan

RE: .27
    
    [suggestion 2: choosing six sets (of six) numbers such that all
    36 numbers are chosen once.]
    
    Frankly, I don't know the rules for winning anything but the
    jackpot (all six numbers correct, order unimportant), so I
    can't answer the question as to how this would effect your odds
    "of winning *some* $$$ prize."
    
    In general schemes like this influence (decrease) the variance
    but do not affect the expected payoff.
    
    For example, say we had a roulette wheel with thirty-six numbers.
    Say that for this game one bet consisted of choosing six different
    numbers, and a win is scored if one of those six is the number which
    comes up.  If we make a single bet, sometimes we will win and
    sometimes we will lose; but on the average, if we play for long
    enough, we will win one time in six.
    
    If for each spin of the wheel we make six bets randomly, without any
    relation between the bets then sometimes we will win none of the
    six bets, sometimes we will win one, sometimes two, and sometimes
    all six.  On the average though we will win one out of the six
    bets we make on each spin.
    
    If instead we make six bets but make sure that each of the 36 possible
    numbers is "covered", then we will always win exactly one bet. 
    We will never loose all six, but we will also never win more than
    one.  Our average is still the same -- 1 win per spin -- but the
    amount of variation between the number of wins per spin disappears.
    
    > ... I do this only on, at lest, double pots.  Probability at least
    > tells my "expected value" is approaching my $1.
    
    Sorry, this is generally not the case.  It *would* be true if (a)
    the expected payoff on a non-doubled pot is approximately 1/2 (I've
    heard both 50% and 40%, it all depends on the cost of those annuities
    that they use -- much of the "million" that you get is interest
    on a much smaller amount that the state deposits for you at the
    beginning of the 20 years) (b) the same number of people bet on
    a "doubled pot" as on an "ordinary" one (clearly untrue, there are
    both a lot of rational bettors like you out there and people who
    just get excited by bigger numbers) (c) it is tax free (it isn't,
    you have to figure that the payoff *after taxes* is somewhere between
    30 and 35%).
    
    A doubled pot does improve your expected payoff, but nowhere near
    to even.
    
    					Topher
    

    re: .28
    
    Like I said I didn't figure it out.  I was pretty sure it wouldn't
    be that close.  The difference is made up of two or three days of
    pleasant daydreams.  {:-)  Easily worth the difference in expected
    value.
    
    However, only betting on larger pots is one of the only things I 
    can control to increase the value of my ticket.  The other thing 
    I can control is the number itself.  I pick "unlikely" numbers so 
    that my chances of getting the full pot is better than average.  
    What are "unlikely" numbers?  Most people pick dates.  No dates for 
    me, thank you.  In fact the numbers 1-12 are pretty much off limits 
    to me.  (only if I get a strong feeling :-) I saw a list of the most 
    picked numbers printed in the Globe.  I took a card and looked at 
    the numbers.  You know what they were.  Straight lines!  I couldn't 
    believe it!  Literally thousands(!) of people pick horizontal lines, 
    vertical lines and diagonals every week.  If one of those numbers ever 
    came up every winner would get enough to buy a cold six pack in
    which to drown his disappointment.
    
    If you think this silly, I read an article in the Globe about a
    guy that wrote a book espousing this same approach.  He wanted $35
    for the book.  Something I had been doing for years.  That's what I 
    should done, write a book.  I would have made some money on
    MEGABUCKS.  I gave you the information for free.  If you want to send 
    $17.50 (half price) my address is...  {:-)
    
    Stan

RE: .29
    
    As long as you realize that the odds are against you, then I understand
    and approve of gambling for the entertainment value of the "what
    ifs".
    
    And if you are going to wager occasionally on Megabucks, betting
    when the odds are "sweeter" is definitly the way to go -- just as
    long as you don't fool yourself in thinking you are playing an
    even money bet when you aren't.
    
    (Actually, of course, you as an adult are welcome to believe and
    bet anyway you want, and I have no say in the matter and wouldn't
    want it if given the choice.  My only concern is people, especially
    the Commonwealth of Mass, misleading others into thinking they
    are "playing the odds" and can plan sensibly on winning).
    
    I don't understood the nature of the list you saw in the Globe.
    Was it a list of how frequently each individual number between 1 and
    36 appears in a bet, or was it a list of the most common sets of
    6 numbers which people bet on?
    
    					Topher

    Late reply to .19 (foolproof method)
>    An absolutely mathematically _provable_ way to "win" Megabucks is
>    as follows:
>    
>    Place a bet on every combination. (approximate cost, $1.9 million)
>    Then, you can't lose.
    
    Steve, 
      Maybe we have smarter fools here in Australia :-), someone tried
    this and still didn't win!
      MEGABUCKS sounds a lot like our "Lotto". You choose 6 numbers in the
    range [1..40] then 7 numbers are drawn (6 to decide the winning
    combination and a "supplimentary" number for choosing minor prizes
    (eg: you get a prize if you choose 3,4 or 5 numbers plus the
    supplimentary). The odds in this case are 1 in 3,838,380 of a
    particular combination of 6 numbers, each entry costs 25�. 
      Some time ago the Lotto people announced a special draw in which
    the prize was $A11M. Someone guy advertised for people to invest in a
    syndicate to win this draw. He raised about $A1.2M and used a PC to
    print the entry coupons (the extra money is to cover the agents
    commission on each entry ~20%). All combinations were covered and he'd
    figured that they would come out on top if 7 or less people had the
    winning combination. Guess what?, there were *11* winners! The
    syndicate just scraped in to break even (because they also won a large
    number of minor prizes). The only real winner was the organiser (who
    hadn't risked any of his money), he collected a fat "management fee".
                                  	John Gillings, Sydney CSC