Title: | Digital Investing |
Moderator: | a-61.tunnel.crl.dec.com::needle |
Created: | Mon Nov 06 1995 |
Last Modified: | Wed Jun 04 1997 |
Last Successful Update: | Fri Jun 06 1997 |
Number of topics: | 476 |
Total number of notes: | 10632 |
With 30% of quarter gone, it's time to estimate the Q3FY97 results. My guess: Net Revenue = $3.2B (Q3FY96 = $3.6B) Down 11% Net Profit = $25M (Q3FY96 = $124M) Down 75% Business seems slower than last Q3, and Q2 just completed. With slightly less revenue than Q2, profit should be slightly less. If there were any financial arrangements to insure a profit in Q2 that might impact Q3, we might even show a loss in Q3. Bob Palmer forecasted over $1.00 per share net for the fiscal year. If Q3 turns out as I guessed, we will have to have one heck of a Q4 to come close to $1.00 EPS for the year, given our 1st 6 months performance. Mark
T.R | Title | User | Personal Name | Date | Lines |
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468.1 | What the street expects is... | BEGIN::ROTITHOR | Tue Jan 28 1997 09:55 | 22 | |
The Zacks average estimates are: Research Analysts' Earnings Estimates and Actuals Consensus estimate for current fiscal year: $ 0.94 per share Consensus estimate for next fiscal year: $ 2.78 per share Consensus estimate for current quarter: $ 0.33 per share Last quarter's actual earnings :$ 0.15 per share Last quarter's EPS Surprise: 99 % I guess these figures keep changing all th time. .33c EPS would translate to about 45M in net profit. Most investors beleive that DEC is well positioned with the current prices and products to take off. If the results are anywhere near those in .0 (about .15 eps), investors would very easily loose confidence in DEC stock and would dump it. Investors have a high expectation from the company in the near future and the next few Quarters seem critical to say the least. | |||||
468.2 | Inquiring minds want to know ... | RTOEU::KPLUSZYNSKI | Arrived... | Tue Jan 28 1997 10:11 | 5 |
Do you have a public source for these numbers ? An internet URL perhaps ? Thanks, Klaus | |||||
468.3 | BEGIN::ROTITHOR | Tue Jan 28 1997 10:42 | 6 | ||
In .2, if you are asking for a public source for the estimates in .1, yes, there is and it is as follows: http://www.ultra.zacks.com/cgi-bin/ShowFreeCompRep Just enter DEC symbol; if you were referring to .0 I don't know. | |||||
468.4 | my guess | HYDRA::PASHAPOUR | Disk space, the final frontier | Tue Jan 28 1997 10:55 | 6 |
Rev. $3.62B Net. $98M Just a quess. Amin | |||||
468.5 | CPDEV::DOUGLAS | unintentionally left blank | Tue Jan 28 1997 13:09 | 7 | |
It looks like the web page is actually http://www.ultra.zacks.com/docs/show.html \paul | |||||
468.6 | Worked fine for me.... | AWECIM::SEGAL | Tue Jan 28 1997 17:38 | 5 | |
Cool service. I reached it at the following URL, just a few minutes ago: http://www.ultra.zacks.com/cgi-bin/ShowFreeCompRep -Meir | |||||
468.7 | LJSRV2::JC | No friends on powder days | Fri Mar 07 1997 09:57 | 6 | |
Q3: revenues: 2.95 B EPS: $.04 | |||||
468.8 | SMURF::PSH | Per Hamnqvist, UNIX/ATM | Fri Mar 07 1997 10:05 | 4 | |
Q3: Revenue: $3.55B EPS: $0.46 | |||||
468.9 | MAIL1::KAPLAN | Fri Mar 07 1997 10:12 | 4 | ||
Q3 : REVENUE $3.25B EPS: $0.24 | |||||
468.10 | DECC::OUELLETTE | crunch | Fri Mar 07 1997 11:19 | 2 | |
revenue $3.5B eps $0.25 | |||||
468.11 | WHEN IN DOUBT SHIP IT OUT | WMOIS::ROUGIER | Sat Mar 08 1997 13:49 | 2 | |
revenue: $3.38B eps: $0.39 | |||||
468.12 | 26115::CONNELLY | Are you paranoid ENOUGH? | Thu Mar 13 1997 01:09 | 4 | |
revenue: $2.99B eps: $0.13 | |||||
468.13 | Announcement Date? | ACISS2::MARES | you get what you settle for | Tue Apr 01 1997 11:57 | 5 |
Anybody know what the target announcement date is for Q3 financial results??? Randy | |||||
468.14 | Q3 Results due on April 17 | NQOS01::dhcp205.syo.dec.com::SOJDA | Wed Apr 02 1997 12:04 | 2 | |
According to the notes in the recent organizational change memo, Q3 results will be released on April 17. | |||||
468.15 | BW: $37m on $3.3b | PCBUOA::KRATZ | Mon Apr 07 1997 12:49 | 15 | |
Another Reorg at DIGITAL Business Week, April 14th, 1997 The return to healthy growth and robust profits is still not happening at Digital Equipment Corporation. Analysts now say earnings for the quarter just ended should be just $37 million, a 70% drop from a year ago, signaling Digital's third lackluster quarter in a row. Revenue should come in around $3.3 billion, down 9% from a year ago. The company is trying yet another reorganization. Bruce Claflin will now head up a streamlined sales and marketing organization. But meanwhile, sales of Digital's Alpha computers are limping along at single-digit growth rates, despite discounts that are hurting profits, distibutors say. | |||||
468.16 | ACISS1::BATTIS | Ferzie fan | Tue Apr 15 1997 12:58 | 3 | |
revenue: 3.45 billion EPS: $39 million | |||||
468.17 | WMOIS::ROUGIER | Tue Apr 15 1997 13:35 | 2 | ||
REVENUE: 3.27 PROFIT: - $3 MIL | |||||
468.18 | PCBUOA::KRATZ | Tue Apr 15 1997 16:03 | 5 | ||
Revenue: $2.8 billion Profit: -$10 million Lump all the bad news here to set up a very nice Q4. .02 Kratz | |||||
468.19 | ACISS2::MARES | you get what you settle for | Tue Apr 15 1997 16:54 | 9 | |
Revenue: $3 B Profit: $10 M Just my SWAG, Randy | |||||
468.20 | so much for the stock | MAASUP::CROSBYM | Wed Apr 16 1997 13:05 | 2 | |
Revenue: $2.5 b Profit: $22 m | |||||
468.21 | Q3 results -- $51 million, or 27 cents/share | LGP30::FLEISCHER | without vision the people perish (DTN 381-0426 ZKO1-1) | Thu Apr 17 1997 08:39 | 232 |
DIGITAL reports Q3 net income of $51 million DIGITAL today reported net income of $51 million, or 27 cents per common share, for the third quarter which ended March 29, 1997, compared with net income of $124 million, or 74 cents per common share, for the same period last year. Total operating revenue for the quarter was $3.31 billion, compared to $3.62 billion reported for the comparable quarter a year ago. "I am pleased we showed good earnings improvement over our second quarter," said DIGITAL Chairman Robert B. Palmer. "Although revenue was not where we wanted it to be, it was within our expectations with progress in key strategic areas. I am particularly encouraged by the growth in Windows NT-based solutions and Internet products and services. I am confident that we will return to year-over-year revenue growth over the next few quarters." Progress made in strategic areas Product revenue in the quarter was $1.84 billion compared to $2.06 billion in the third quarter of the previous year. Service revenue was $1.48 billion compared with $1.57 billion reported in the same period last year. Palmer said DIGITAL is making progress in a number of strategic areas. "Our Internet business, which includes servers, networking products, software and services, achieved good growth during the quarter with total revenue now more than $1 billion on an annual basis," Palmer said. "We are achieving substantial success in sales to Internet service providers where more than 200 ISPs in 37 countries have turned to DIGITAL for Alpha and Intel servers, storage systems and networking products." Palmer said the company also is winning business with Microsoft Exchange on Windows NT, capturing approximately 900,000 Exchange seats worldwide since the beginning of the fiscal year. More than 50 percent of the wins represent new business for DIGITAL, including installations at British Petroleum and Lehman Brothers. DIGITAL's network product business, Palmer said, introduced a new family of high-performance switches that was well-received by the marketplace and generated strong demand. The company's Services Division, Palmer said, met both its near-term objectives for revenue and gross margin. The division announced a $70 million services contract with Canada's TransAlta Corp. early in the quarter and recently won a $13.5 million contract with Perkin Elmer, a leading manufacturer of life-science systems and analytical instruments, to help design, manage and support a worldwide SAP infrastructure. New products rolled out in Q3 During the quarter, DIGITAL introduced a number of important new products. The company announced additions and enhancements to its 64-bit DIGITAL AlphaServer and personal workstation product lines. The new AlphaServer 800 and enhanced AlphaServer 1000A systems provide high-availability, computer-clustering solutions for UNIX and Windows NT and new Windows NT intranet search capabilities. The competitively priced entry-level servers target the small business market. Two new Windows NT personal workstations were announced based on the Alpha microprocessor which deliver breakthrough Windows NT workstation performance and the world's fastest Windows NT 3D graphics solutions. Additionally, the company unveiled three new models in its value-priced HiNote VP 500 mobile client series which include models with Windows NT Workstation 4.0 pre-loaded and pre-configured with power management and plug-and-play features. DIGITAL continued to strengthen Alpha's position as the industry's leading high performance microprocessor. The company unveiled the low cost Alpha 21164PC microprocessor, jointly designed with Mitsubishi Electric, that delivers Alpha power at PC prices making it very attractive to the volume Windows NT market. In addition, DIGITAL announced a network appliance reference design with Network Computer Inc., a subsidiary of Oracle Corp., based on DIGITAL's low power/high performance StrongARM microprocessor. The reference design is aimed at creating the industry standard for the most powerful, low-cost network computing platform. Early interest in this offering is very encouraging, with Funai Electric Company and Aranex Inc. already committed to producing network computing devices based on the design. Additionally, DIGITAL announced a memo of understanding with China Aerospace Corporation for a joint venture in the People's Republic of China to explore development, manufacture and distribution of network computers based on this reference design. Expense control Gross margin for the quarter was 33.4 percent, compared with 32.9 percent in the previous quarter and 34.6 percent for the comparable period a year ago. Product gross margin was 35.3 percent, compared with 37.1 percent in the third quarter of 1996. Service gross margin was 31 percent compared with 31.3 percent in the third quarter of fiscal 1996. "Over the past three years we've succeeded in improving product gross margin by 10 points while at the same time, stabilizing service gross margin," said DIGITAL Chief Financial Officer Vincent J. Mullarkey. Total operating expenses were $1.06 billion compared to $1.13 billion reported in the same period last year. "Overall operating expenses for the quarter reflected good management control and the impact of restructuring, resulting in a 7 percent reduction in operating expenses from the same period last year," Mullarkey said. "Our third quarter profits improved considerably over the second quarter, despite the significant negative impact of the strengthening U.S. dollar," Mullarkey continued. "Management actions were taken across the company during the quarter to partly mitigate the currency impact." The company ended the quarter with $2.48 billion in cash and short term investments, up approximately $200 million from the second quarter. "The company's balance sheet continues to strengthen in all areas," Mullarkey said. "Improvements in inventory and accounts receivable contributed to the fifth consecutive quarter of positive cash flow from operations. During the quarter, the company repurchased 4.5 million shares of common stock at a cost of approximately $160 million. The company's cash and short term investments position has improved more than $700 million from a year ago." The corporation completed the quarter with approximately 55,100 employees -- a net reduction of 5,800 positions from a year ago. Statements contained in this press release which are not historic facts are forward-looking statements as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ from those projected. Such risks and uncertainties are discussed more fully in the company's latest quarterly report on Form 10-Q and the company's other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Consolidated Statements of Operations (Unaudited) (in thousands except per share data) Three-month Period Ended March 29, 1997 March 30, 1996 Product sales...................$ 1,836,516 $ 2,055,710 Service revenues................. 1,477,794 1,565,316 Total operating revenues......... 3,314,310 3,621,026 Cost of product sales............ 1,188,578 1,294,032 Service expense.................. 1,019,290 1,074,650 Research and engineering expenses........................ 256,476 275,703 Selling, general and administrative expenses......... 798,714 858,203 Operating income................. 51,252 118,438 Other (income)/expense, net (1).. (10,848) (19,272) Income before income taxes....... 62,100 137,710 Provision for income taxes....... 11,134 13,637 Net income....................... 50,966 124,073 Dividend on preferred stock...... 8,875 8,875 Net income applicable to common stock................$ 42,091 $ 115,198 Net income applicable per common share (2)...........$ 0.27 $ 0.74 Weighted average common shares outstanding.............. 155,666 156,594 Nine-Month Period Ended March 29, 1997 March 30, 1996 Product sales...................$ 5,202,959 $ 6,221,248 Service revenues................. 4,380,739 4,622,275 Total operating revenues......... 9,583,698 10,843,523 Cost of product sales............ 3,445,203 4,133,992 Service expense.................. 3,016,261 3,115,310 Research and engineering expenses 763,961 795,483 Selling, general and administrative expenses......... 2,348,297 2,464,372 Operating income................. 9,976 334,366 Other (income)/expense, net (1).. (27,465) (30,416) Income before income taxes....... 37,441 364,782 Provision for income taxes....... 20,475 43,756 Net income....................... 16,966 321,026 Dividends on preferred stock..... 26,625 26,625 Net income/(loss) applicable to common stock................$ (9,659) $ 294,401 Net income/(loss) applicable per common share (2)...........$ (0.06) $ 1.91 Weighted average common shares outstanding.............. 154,965 154,209 Note (1): In the third quarter of fiscal 1997, Other (income)/expense, net includes approximately $30 million of interest income, $21 million in interest expense and $2 million in net gain on divestments. In the third quarter of fiscal 1996, Other (income)/expense, net includes approximately $19 million in interest income, $26 million in interest expense and there were $26 million in net gains on divestments. In the first nine months of fiscal 1997, Other (income)/expense, net includes approximately $82 million in interest income, $64 million in interest expense and $9 million in net gains on divestments. In the first nine months of fiscal 1996 Other (income)/expense, net includes approximately $57 million in interest income and $75 million in interest expense and $48 million in net gains on divestments. Note (2): Per common share amounts are calculated based on the weighted average number of common shares and common share equivalents outstanding during periods of net income, after deducting applicable preferred stock dividends. Per share amounts are calculated based only on the weighted average number of shares outstanding during periods of net loss, after deducting applicable preferred stock dividends. Selected Balance Sheet Data (Unaudited) - Q3 FY97 (in thousands except per share and employee data) March 29, 1997 Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments.......$ 2,481,708 Accounts receivable, net of allowances................... 2,886,164 Inventories.............................................. 1,471,390 Prepaid expenses, deferred income taxes and other current assets.......................................... 324,510 Total current assets..................................... 7,163,772 Property, plant and equipment, net....................... 2,114,074 Other assets............................................. 334,667 Total assets............................................. 9,612,513 Bank loans and current portion of long-term debt (3)..... 264,043 Accounts payable......................................... 810,056 Accrued restructuring costs.............................. 443,230 Total current liabilities................................ 4,187,413 Long-term debt (3)....................................... 749,320 Postretirement and other postemployment benefits......... 1,179,420 Total liabilities........................................ 6,116,153 Stockholders' equity....................................$ 3,496,360 Book value per common share.............................$ 20.26 Non-U.S. revenues...................................QTR $ 2,274,037 69% YTD $ 6,473,907 68% Employee population (approximately)..................... 55,100 Note (3): In the second quarter of fiscal 1997, $250 million was reclassed from long-term debt to current portion of long term debt to recognize that the five-year bond is due in November of 1997. | |||||
468.22 | SHRCTR::peterj.shr.dec.com::PJohnson | Nothing unreal exists. | Thu Apr 17 1997 09:17 | 4 | |
> revenue: 3.45 billion > EPS: $39 million Whoa! I'll take that EPS anyday! | |||||
468.23 | ACISS1::BATTIS | Ferzie fan | Thu Apr 17 1997 09:49 | 4 | |
<--------- hey, we need to catch Intel. actually, that should say net income. hey, i was only $12 million off. Here's hoping Q4 has earnings of 79-82 cents a share. | |||||
468.24 | My guess it was BAD so no mention | CSCMA::BALICH | Thu Apr 17 1997 10:49 | 6 | |
I got a question: WHY isn't DEC talking about ALPHA growth this quarter ??? No mention on how ALPHA did ... WHY ? | |||||
468.25 | GVPROD::MSTEINER | Thu Apr 17 1997 11:06 | 6 | ||
Re .-1: Wasn't it the same last quarter ? And it was only at an analyst conference that Palmer said Alpha growth was 1% ! Michel. | |||||
468.26 | always go contrary to this file... | GAAS::BRAUCHER | And nothing else matters | Thu Apr 17 1997 11:06 | 5 |
I also have a question : how come the members of this conference are such atrocious predicters ? I could do better with darts. bb | |||||
468.27 | CTHU22::M_MORIN | Mario Morin, Hull CSC - Canada | Thu Apr 17 1997 11:14 | 10 | |
In order to meet Bob Palmer's prediction that for FY97 the company would make $1.00/share, I calculate that we need to show a profit of $163M for Q4. We're currently -$0.06/share ($9.6M loss)for the 9 months of FY97. This calculation is based on 154,965,000 shares outstanding. I figured we need to make $1.06/share in Q4. /Mario | |||||
468.28 | they know... | PCBUOA::KRATZ | Thu Apr 17 1997 11:28 | 3 | |
The fact that they didn't comment on Alpha means that Alpha probably wasn't very good," -John Jones, Soloman Brothers | |||||
468.29 | Maybe a lesson learned | SMURF::PSH | Per Hamnqvist, UNIX/ATM | Thu Apr 17 1997 11:33 | 13 |
| WHY isn't DEC talking about ALPHA growth this quarter ??? Unless those numbers were *excellent* why set ourselves up for cheap shots from our competition? Just because they are not excellent does not mean they are bad. I imagine Alpha did not do too well, but I doubt the entire blame can be laid on it as a poor hardware platform. Much of it can probably be attributed to internal organizational turmoil. So if we tell the competition that the numbers are not too exciting, they will turn around and tell their customers that this is proof that the industry is not embracing the Alpha when in fact part of the problem is that the industry may be trying but Digital has been so darn difficult to do business with. >Per | |||||
468.30 | I thought book value was Equity/shares | MKOTS3::BREEN | Thu Apr 17 1997 11:35 | 5 | |
If total equity is 3.5 bil and we have 155 million common shares why isn't book value $22 vs 20 or taking the 20.26 book value * 155k shares and getting 3.1 billion wheres the other 400 million dollars? Are some assets not included in the book value computation? | |||||
468.31 | it could certainly be worse... | GAAS::BRAUCHER | And nothing else matters | Thu Apr 17 1997 11:55 | 5 |
In the early going, the market likes this quarterly. We're up nearly 10% on a stagnant NYSE. bb | |||||
468.32 | DECCXL::OUELLETTE | temerity time | Thu Apr 17 1997 12:42 | 15 | |
Two close guesses. I guess I have my cynicism level fairly well adjusted. MAIL1::KAPLAN REVENUE $3.25B EPS: $0.24 DECC::OUELLETTE revenue $3.5B eps $0.25 Actual revenue $3.31B eps .27 | |||||
468.33 | DEC bullish in DEC stock ??? | CSCMA::BALICH | Thu Apr 17 1997 12:47 | 9 | |
Check this out .... haven't seen the detailed story yet ... but saw this at 11:10 on DBC headlines ... 11:10 DIGITAL EXPECTS TO REPURCHASE ABOUT 4 MILLION SHARES IN 4TH QUARTER I see this a very bullish ... thats alot of stock! | |||||
468.34 | ACISS2::LENNIG | Dave (N8JCX), MIG, @CYO | Thu Apr 17 1997 12:49 | 22 | |
Employee population, culled from the quarterly reports total Y/Y Q/Q 95Q4 61700 16000 96Q1 61500 12300 200 96Q2 61100 4500 400 96Q3 60900 2200 200 96Q4 59100 2600 1800 97Q1 57000 4500 2100 97Q2 55900 5200 1100 97Q3 55100 5800 800 97Q4 ????? ???? ???? Any guesses? Comments? Also, from Q3FY97 >>Accrued restructuring costs.............................. 443,230 Is this how much of the Q4FY96 $492M restructuring charge is left, or is it how much has been spent? (Doesn't this have to be used up by the end of this FY?) Dave | |||||
468.35 | ACISS2::LENNIG | Dave (N8JCX), MIG, @CYO | Thu Apr 17 1997 12:58 | 10 | |
re: .33 >>DIGITAL EXPECTS TO REPURCHASE ABOUT 4 MILLION SHARES IN 4TH QUARTER From Q4FY96: "As a result, Digital has announced a stock repurchase program for up to 10 million common shares." and from Q3FY97: "During the quarter, the company repurchased 4.5 million shares of common stock at a cost of approximately $160 million." 10M - 4.5M = 5.5M Dave | |||||
468.36 | PCBUOA::KRATZ | Thu Apr 17 1997 14:54 | 8 | ||
Alpha Systems revenue was down 2%, units up 6%, vs. year ago according to some "Talking points" message that accompanied the results. Keep in mind that probably didn't include system boards sold by Digital Semi (which probably did some cannabilization of the SBU systems). K | |||||
468.37 | that's expected, till EV6 or P7... | GAAS::BRAUCHER | And nothing else matters | Thu Apr 17 1997 15:11 | 7 |
so what else is new ? EV5 & Pentium Pro, our two architectures, are getting long of tooth, for the high end. We need big stuff, soon. You can't stand still for a year in the server biz. bb | |||||
468.38 | PCBUOA::KRATZ | Thu Apr 17 1997 15:37 | 4 | ||
Not to mention that a lot of talk about $2.5k Alphas six months from now probably didn't do much to help the sales of the current $25k AlphaStations. K | |||||
468.39 | PC Week | PCBUOA::KRATZ | Thu Apr 17 1997 17:02 | 57 | |
PC Week, midday edition 4/17/97 Alpha Sales Down At Digital Digital Equipment Corp.'s earnings were better than expected, but that isn't saying much. Revenues at the Maynard, Mass., computer company were $3.3 billion, down from $3.6 billion in the year-ago quarter. Net income for the quarter was $51 million, down from $124 million last year. CEO Robert Palmer said that while he was pleased the company had boosted earnings from the second quarter, he was unhappy with the current revenue levels. "We should be growing at something closer to industry leader's rates for similar products and services," he said. Sales of Digital's flagship Alpha unit suffered during the quarter, with revenues falling 9 percent from a year ago. In particular, Alpha sales into the Unix market suffered considerably. "In the Unix side of the product family we're experiencing -- particularly in high-end sales -- a longer sales cycle this year than last year," said Vin Mullarkey, Digital's chief financial officer. Mullarkey said that Alpha sales also may be dampened because the transition from VMS/VAX is slowing. Price cuts also had an impact on Alpha revenue. In March, the company announced a series of low-cost Alpha chips, aiming to make a name for the chip on the desktop NT market. "We saw an increase in the number of units, but that hasn't offset the decrease in revenue due to price reductions," Palmer said. "Last year there was pent-up demand for performance from our existing [VMS/VAX] installed base, and that conversion has taken place. Growth today is in new business and applications." Palmer and Mullarkey said the Alpha revenue loss was expected, and added that unit shipments had risen 6 percent from the second quarter. Palmer said he was pleased with sales in the Internet business, which encompass servers networking products and software, adding that he would like the company to grab 20 percent of the worldwide market in that area by fiscal 1998. Annually, that business brings in about $1 billion to Digital. Looking ahead, Mullarkey said the fourth quarter should see a revenue increase in the mid- to high-single digits. Currency issues could continue to affect Digital's revenues in the next quarter, Mullarkey said today. The company's revenues were down about $60 million due to currency issues resulting from a strong dollar. The problems could continue, at similar levels, into Digital's fourth quarter, he said. | |||||
468.40 | Ramblin' On | NCMAIL::YANUSC | Fri Apr 18 1997 09:26 | 41 | |
A few thoughts around the earnings announcement, the erosion of Alpha sales, and buying back stock: 1. We exceeded analysts expectations, albeit the revised ones from the last 6-8 week period. Most expected profits of $25M, some expected $10M, and towards the end a few started hinting at a loss. Under those conditions our profits were well received, which is why our relatively small profits caused the stock to move higher, while Sun's profits, while large in relation to ours, did not necessarily exceed expectations. Hence, their stock did nothing on their news. Personally I would prefer to be at their profit levels, and the heck with what happened to their stock in a short time period. 2. Regarding lowered Alpha sales - No one, I repeat no one, has as much vested interest in the success of Alpha than the employees of this company. In particular that includes the direct sales and support people in the field, whose livelihood depends upon this success. No one has that same desire, not our resellers who carry umpteen vendors lines in addition to Digital's, and not the OEMs we think are pushing Alpha products. Take away a goodly number of your direct selling force, and watch as attrition takes many more, and it does not take a rocket scientist to understand why Alpha sales are down. Unless this trend is reversed, you can expect a continued erosion of Alpha sales, on a steady quarter by quarter basis. I'm not sure when the powers to be will wake up to that fact, but I fear time is running short. 3. Stock buybacks can be effective under the right conditions. Normally I feel that this is best accomplished when one is generating lots of excess cash, not when one is hanging on by their fingernails. The GEs of the world come to mind as examples of companies who are expanding at a rapid clip, generating profits, and therefore using some of the excess proceeds to redeem shares. But a high-tech company like Digital can send a message that we do not necessarily know where to invest for growth by such an action, particularly during these times. It also can give a downright negative connotation (defensive move on management's part to shield the company from a hostile bid.) I suppose we are damned if we do, damned if we don't in this scenario, but personally I would like to see the $ used for purposes of growing the business. Chuck | |||||
468.41 | Yes but | MKTCRV::MANNERINGS | Fri Apr 18 1997 09:54 | 10 | |
>Take away a goodly number of your direct selling >force, and watch as attrition takes many more, and it does not take >a rocket scientist to understand why Alpha sales are down. Yes, I think that is it too. The ridiculous thing is that the company stategists were taken by suprise at this. But it is still disaapointing that unix high-end is weak. It would suggest that VLM is not taking off as expected. Is that the case ? ..Kevin.. | |||||
468.42 | AMCFAC::RABAHY | dtn 471-5160, outside 1-810-347-5160 | Fri Apr 18 1997 10:22 | 1 | |
Perhaps Alpha is in the chasm? | |||||
468.43 | axel.zko.dec.com::FOLEY | http://axel.zko.dec.com | Fri Apr 18 1997 10:27 | 11 | |
RE: .41 Perhaps it is Unix' slowing growth in general. I personally think we are caught in the middle of a slowdown on the Unix/VMS side and an upswing on the Windows NT side, where the future growth is. I'd rather not debate the merits of this. It's reality at the moment. mike | |||||
468.44 | SUN hasn't stopped growing.... | TROOA::MSCHNEIDER | [email protected] | Fri Apr 18 1997 11:41 | 6 |
Re. -1 You mean our slowing DUNIX growth.... you might have noticed that the growth of UNIX overall far exceed the growth of DUNIX. Gartner report not likely to have helped and the fact that our overall performance lead has shrunk or been eliminated in many segments. | |||||
468.45 | RE: .43 | gemevn.zko.dec.com::GLOSSOP | Only the paranoid survive | Fri Apr 18 1997 11:42 | 9 |
The Sun piece in the WSJ on their results suggested their high-end sales were strong, if I remember correctly (don't have it handy.) My reading is this appears to be more self-inflicted damage from cost-driven approach rather than a growth-driven approach, given how the competitors appear to be doing. (We seem to have realized in some places that prices were way out of line, but we still don't appear to have come to terms with how much volume is required to sustain profitability and price competitiveness at the same time.) | |||||
468.46 | ref to .40 | DECC::ROTITHOR | Fri Apr 18 1997 12:38 | 14 | |
>>But a high-tech company like >>Digital can send a message that we do not necessarily know where to >>invest for growth by such an action, particularly during these times. That is true and the interpretation will depend on one's outlook. Another way to look at the stock buyback is that Digital is confident about its future plans and growth and expects that the stock will do very well in future Quarters and sees a low share price (possibly bootomed out) as an opportunity to buy back the stock. This can also instill some temporary confidence in share holders that the company cares about them in conditions where the price has been consistently beaten down so that they have something to look forward in the short term. It is important to have share holders holding the stock until we get some breathing time with large volume production of low cost Alpha NT platforms. | |||||
468.47 | SUBSYS::BROWN | SCSI and DSSI advice given cheerfully | Fri Apr 18 1997 14:07 | 13 | |
It appears that we're not good at managing our cash. 1. We bought back stock at about $36/share. ($160m / 4.5m = $35.something) It's hard to remember a time last quarter when the stock was that high. Perhaps this quarter we should dollar-cost average, by buying shares every week. Strategically-timed purchases have backfired. 2. Accounts Receivable exceeds 80 days's sales. Accounts Payable is only a third of that. 3. Inventory is well over 90 days (compared to cost of sales). The only thing we did well was take $40m. from the restructuring charge to reduce SG&A. Otherwise, the results would have been grounds for mutiny. | |||||
468.48 | Ratios have two sides | SUBSYS::JAMES | Fri Apr 18 1997 14:35 | 13 | |
Maybe Digital's low stock price is a strategy to get more shares for our buy-back dollar! :*( I've heard that a good portion of Palmers compensation is tied to hitting an Earnings Per Share target. If we can't grow earnings, we can reduce outstanding shares. The person who told me this did not say what the target is. The same strategy was used to improve Sales per Employee. Sales are down. Population is down more. Sales per Employee is up. | |||||
468.49 | METSYS::THOMPSON | Tue Apr 22 1997 05:52 | 19 | ||
I would blame declines in Alpha Workstation sales (VMS and UNIX). With pc's ever more powerful they are becoming the desktop of choice even in UNIX and VMS environments. If your PC can provide all the access you need to your server, why adopt a desktop than can't run Office et al? I bet this is the main source of erosion of Alpha sales. Also there has been a minor Alpha sales boom as existing customers migrate from VAX to ALPHA. That phase now seems to be over and we are now chasing new applications. On Servers we seem to be losing out big time to HP. Even that latest Business Week artical referred to them as our "Arch-rival". For some reason UNIX is now subject to Corporate strategists, when they mandate it seems to be HP. E.g. Boeing, Philips, Unipart ... Perhaps if Sales and Marketing are now the dominant part of the Company, as some writers interpret the latest re-org, things will change. M | |||||
468.50 | Anybody with a positive view out there? | CHEFS::PRINCE_T | Wed Apr 23 1997 05:48 | 10 | |
... I think I'll stop reading this conference. It's all gloom and negativity. IMHO if we put as much energy into our everyday activities as we sometimes do into our moans and groans we'd all be better off! Can we have some positive views please? Trevor | |||||
468.51 | 57428::TREMELLING | Making tomorrow yesterday, today! | Wed Apr 23 1997 14:35 | 5 | |
Something about the darkest hour is just before the dawn? This conference makes a good contrarian indicator..... Darryl | |||||
468.52 | PCBUOA::BAYJ | Jim, Portables | Mon Apr 28 1997 16:12 | 9 | |
I hate gloom and doom, too, but what I *really* hate is being mislead by unrealistic optimism. It sometimes gets grey in between the realms of "good attitude" and "false expectations". If a good attitude could get this company out of its hole, that would be great. But I think just a little bit more than that is called for. jeb |