Conference hydra::amiga_v1

    
    
    	What is "reasonable" for DRAMS ??  I know of many very good
  suppliers of DRAMS parts but they all seem to have the same price.
    
    150ns 256K		about $12
    150ns 1M		about $35-40
    
    
    		Steve 
    

    re .1
    
    Well, resonable would be something like:
    
    150ns 256K          less than $10
    150ns 1M            less than $30
    
    Anybody want to speculate on a time when the price of 256K DRAM's
    may drop back to where it was say 2 years ago?  (Under $4)
    What's causing these rediculously high prices, anyway?
    
     - Chris
    

Re: .2

>    Anybody want to speculate on a time when the price of 256K DRAM's
>    may drop back to where it was say 2 years ago?  

Never.

All of the semiconductor industry analysts I have read agree on one
thing.  The major factor causing the price increase in the price
of 256K DRAMs is that manufactures of those parts are stopping
production to convert to 1M DRAMs.  One meg DRAMs are currently
more price effective and in greater supply than 256K DRAMs, and
that trend is predicted to continue.  Most analysts predict that
the price of 1M chips to continue to fall (they have been edging
downwards), and that early in 1989 that a lot of the manufacturing
will have finished the retooling process and will be delivering
1M chips in large numbers.

The future of 256K parts is bleak.  They will be in limited production,
targeted to supply replacement parts.

Today's situation isn't like when the conversion from 64K DRAMs to
128K DRAMs was made.  Back then, Japanese chip manufactures believed
that the market for DRAM warranted much increased production.  So,
rather than convert factories producing 64K parts to 256K parts,
they built new factories to produce 256K parts.  Today they feel
that they do not need to invest in additional production capacity,
and so are stopping production of 256K parts and converting to
production of 1M parts.

Trade agreements didn't really affect this process (they might have
caused production on 256K chips to stop a little earlier than 
originally planned).

So if you are buying a bare memory board these days that you do
not plan on populating for awhile yet, buy a board that accepts
1M DRAMs.

    re .3
    	Thanks, Randy.  That was a pretty good explanation.  In reality,
    I'd prefer 1 MBit DRAM's to 256, but I'll settle for either.  If
    you calculate how many chips it would take to populate an 8 Meg
    board with 256K DRAM's, you'd see why I like 1 MBit better.  And
    then, parity checking, if added would require even more.  But, like
    I said, I'll settle for either.  Thanks for the answers, folx.
    
     - Chris
    

    I don't think 256K chips are completely dead.  To my knowlege, that's
    the only size Micron Technology is producing at all.  I don't believe
    they have their 1MB chips into production yet, so it ain't like
    they're dumping that market yet.

    The current volume prices for both the 256k and 1Mb chips have
    increased but not as much as the low-volume retail prices have changed.
    
    	For the 256k chips the old price was about $1.70 and the current
    volume price is from $2.25 to $2.50.
    	1Mbit parts are now about $14.00 in volume.
    
    	This means that retailers are looking for a 5 times markup on
    wholesale prices for the 256k chip and a 2 times markup on the 1Mbit.
    Five times seems a little excessive to me.
    Ric

    If you think it's excessive, buy a whole bunch and sell them at
    4x markup.  The world will beat a path to your door.  Unless, of
    course, the volume price comes back down....
        John Sauter

    I seem to remember reading not too long ago that at least part of
    the problem isn't price, but rather demand.  The chips themselves
    are "reasonably" priced, but it just isn't easy to get an order
    of them.  And, if someone does sell you a batch, they might be inclined
    to attach a whole bunch of strings to the order by making you buy
    a munch of slow movers.  (Here, the "you" refers to your basic memory
    wholesaler.)
    
    So, maybe the chips were that cheap, but the guy selling them at
    the 4x markup is charging so much because:
    
    a) No one else has the chips to compete
    b) He had to buy a bunch of junk he didn't want at the same time
    c) Everyone else is doing it
    d) He can get away with it
    e) All of the above

Another factor is that the wholesale prices mentioned sound like the
prices for long term contracts for large numbers of parts.  Companies
that buy large numbers of chips sign contracts with manufactures for
large numbers of chips at low prices.  The spot market on DRAM has been
charging two to four times the contract price.

Computer manufactures, even pc manufactures like Apple, Commodore,
and Atari, sign contracts a get low prices.  Third party manufactures,
like the people who produce add-ons for Apple, Commodore, and Atari,
buy on the spot market.  Mail order chip distributors like folks that
advertise in Computer Shopper, also buy on the spot market.