Conference 7.286::digital

    Because, after the  recent stock purchase, my wife told me not to
    sell!!
    
    - John
    

    Because they found out how many excellent people were being TSFO'd,
    drew the conclusion that DEC was on a Kamakazie run, & decided to bail
    out before the plane hit the deck!

    
           RE:  .2
    
     	          By jove, I think you've got it.

    Discussed at length in SUBWAY::DIGITAL_INVESTING

    
    
    re .0
    
    	because Wall street finally got the message that even
    	negative headcounts won't get a company back to the green
    	range
    
                                                        -helmut
    							

The rumour in the UK is that an HP executive hinted that HP's 
results may not be as good as the analysts' expectations.  Given 
that HP is one of the darlings of the moment, this hd a ripple 
affect on all other manufacturers e.g. Digital, IBM,...

Since then HP have said that the executive's comments have been 
misinterpreted and there is no anticipated downturn in HP's 
fortunes.

Having said all that, I prefered the reasons given in the revious 
replies.

    re:.4
    Looked and saw the question...........but no replys as to why......
    

    
    
    	I figure that the reason the stock is dropping is because we will
    	probably turn a profit this quarter...never could figure out Wall
    	Street.
    

    
    The rumor I heard is that we are expecting to show a "pretty" good
    profit for Q4, BUT, back in the red for Q1.  Wall Street likes to
    see a steady climb, even if it is small. 
    
    If you are in the black one qtr, and the red the next, they think
    you are out-of-control.
    

>>...they think  you are out-of-control.
But isnt this an accurate accessment justly deserved?
    

    A good equities picker only cares about the fundamentals, P/E ratio,
    earnings expectations, bookings, inventory levels, and whether the
    customers of a company look favorably on the products/services the
    company provides.
    
    If we meet customer expectations, in terms of products and services
    offered, and keep costs under control, this may turn out to be an
    opportune time to buy Digital.

    
    The best explaination I got from a fairly knowledgeable person is that
    WS will not react positively till Digital shows some growth in revenue.
    WS has seen too many instances of profitable quarters, a la Prime,
    Wang and Data Point, achieved thru cost reductions with no revenue
    gains. Ultimate profitability and stock appreciation can not happen
    till upturn in the revenue. Cost reductions have a limited value to
    stock appreciation.

    
    
    
      Got some interesting information from a VERY reliable source.
    Mr. Palmer presented FY94s plan, which got a "standing O" from
    the board, which stated 9.4% growth for the year and profits in
    all 4 quarters. This was the first time in Digital's 36 years
    that a plan has been submitted before the middle of the year it
    was being submitted for.
    
      This source also told me that we will probably "break even" in
    Q4, which 6 months ago the "experts" would have though impossible,
    but now because they predicted a profit, is not good enough. This
    was the main reason for the stock drop, although it's up over 2
    points today.
    
    
                                    

    
    Earnings expectations and bookings are directly related to revenue.  A
    good stock picker will recognize a short term quick fix from a
    fundamental organizational restructuring.  A speculator will try and
    take advantage of a short term quick fix, while an investor will seek
    out companies that offer potential over the long term.

    What is a "standing 0" ?
    
    L.

    The reason:
    
    When we announce good news, our stock goes down.
    When we announce bad news, our stock goes down.
    When anyone else announces good news, our stock goes down.
    When anyone else announces bad news, our stock goes down.
    

    re: .17
    
    This is one of Murphy's Laws:
    
    The Law of Non-Reciprocal Expectations
    
    also known informally as the:
    
    "You can't wash your car to make it rain" Law.

Re: .17

>>    When we announce good news, our stock goes down.
>>    When we announce bad news, our stock goes down.
>>    When anyone else announces good news, our stock goes down.
>>    When anyone else announces bad news, our stock goes down.
    
I've noticed a number of times when our stock as well as other 
companies' stock prices will move in the opposite direction of 
recent news.  I've also noticed that this frequently follows an 
unexplained movement in the direction that would be associated 
with the news.  

My theory:

1) Insiders get their hands on the information before it is 
   released.
2) The stock moves because of insiders' buys/sells.
3) Technical trades (caused by analyzing the stock price movement) 
   cause an over-movement of the stock.
4) The news gets released and stock corrects to the price the news
   would have established.


                                 Kurt

    I've already mentioned that this discussion mainly takes place in
    SUBWAY::DIGITAL_INVESTING but the opinion expressed as fact in 2552.19
    needs a response.

    Digital insiders (and DI has a discussion of who "insiders" are) do not
    typically purchase and sell stock on the basis of their inside
    knowledge of undisclosed material information regarding the company.

    There are three checks on this: internal management, shareholders, and
    the SEC.  We are in an especially critical period as hard numbers
    regarding earnings are in possession of the company now and not disclosed
    to the public.

	re .20:

>    I've already mentioned that this discussion mainly takes place in
>    SUBWAY::DIGITAL_INVESTING but the opinion expressed as fact in 2552.19
>    needs a response.

	Pat, you really must slow down enough to read what is written.
	The author of .19 carefully referred to "MY THEORY". This cannot
	possibly be construed as "expressed as fact". Quite the contrary.

>    Digital insiders (and DI has a discussion of who "insiders" are) do not
>    typically purchase and sell stock on the basis of their inside
>    knowledge of undisclosed material information regarding the company.
>
>    There are three checks on this: internal management, shareholders, and
>    the SEC.  We are in an especially critical period as hard numbers
>    regarding earnings are in possession of the company now and not disclosed
>    to the public.

	With due deference to Notes etiquette and my legal obligations 
	as an employee, may I say that I am profoundly relieved to hear
	that knowledge of company results is kept secret by the same
	people who are responsible for those results, and with the
	same rigorous discipline and efficiency. 

	/Tom

    Re: .20
    
    By "insiders", I did NOT mean Digital insiders.  I meant people who get
    inside information, sometimes by nefarious means, such as eavesdropping
    along microwave lines and satelite links to capture Electronic
    transmissions (Phone calls, VAX Mail, etc), or by legal ways such as
    doing their own inofrmation gathering.
    
    I did NOT in any way mean Digital insiders as defined by the Security
    an Exchange Commission.
    
    
                                       Kurt
    

>    By "insiders", I did NOT mean Digital insiders.  I meant people who get
>    inside information, sometimes by nefarious means, such as eavesdropping
>    along microwave lines and satelite links to capture Electronic
>    transmissions (Phone calls, VAX Mail, etc), or by legal ways such as
>    doing their own inofrmation gathering.
    
I used to work in cororate distribution in NRO and I could get a very good 
estimate of our Q4 shipping by the number of Tractor Trailers in our parking 
lot. If I couldn't find a parking spot during the last two weeks, we were 
shipping a LOT. Since the last two weeks is the Gravy (profit), it would 
indicate a great quarter. The year we suprised wall street with a doubled profit
people were parking on the grass and volleyball court. Alas, distribution has
moved to Westminster and I have moved to Connecticut so I couldn't test my
theory this year. (It also doesn't tell me how Europe and GIA are doing)

Dan Buckley