| I quite agree that weather forecasts -- NOAA and other -- are frequently
unreliable. Whether or not the forecasts are conservative is both
debatable and, since the forecasts are unreliable, rather beside the
point.
The NOAA forecasts cover a rather wide area -- for example, Merrimack
River to Watch Hill and up to 25 miles offshore or Eastport to the
Merrimack River -- and a forecast of 10 to 20 knot winds may seem
conservative if you are becalmed. However, somewhere else in the
forecast area the winds may be locally gale force. Due to some lack of
thought and inexperience we were once caught in a completely unforecast
gale, and we have several times seen winds of 30 to 40 knots when the
forecast was for light and variable winds. Remember that the force of
the wind is proportional to the square of the wind speed and the force
of a gust can easily be twice the force of the average wind.
The point I would like to make is not that the weather forecasts are
right or wrong. Rather, it is that you must be prepared for quite bad
weather regardless of the forecast. If you sail a boat that cannot cope
with high winds and seas, then you should stay quite near a harbor or
other safe refuge. If you decide to venture very far out, then you must
be prepared to manage severe weather without outside assistance. My
apologies for climbing onto my soapbox again, but I am always amazed at
the chances people take, either knowingly or unknowingly, and I am
always dismayed at how often people die unnecessarily as a result. There
is always some risk in sailing, but it is foolish to tempt the fates
more than a little. For example, we once met a powerboater in
Provincetown who had left from somewhere south of Boston bound for
Provincetown without any charts. His wife and two children were with
him. He was east of the end of Cape Cod when some kind soul pointed him
back in the right direction. You need to know what you and your boat are
capable of doing, and capability depends on both experience and
equipment.
Alan
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| Ill agree with that. I've always been amazed at people who will not only
venture out without knowing how to pilot their way from buoy to buoy, but
have 2 life jackets for 5 people, no foul weather gear, no radio when a long
ways out, and never tell anyone where they are going and when they expect
to get there.
For what its worth, I've found the ones out of TF Green Airport in RI to
be of decent quality, at least so far as Narragansett bay and Buzzards Bay
are concerned.
Rick
** Along the same lines... We were on our way to Marthas Vineyard a few
weeks ago, when we came up on another boat sailing along. They told us
they were headed for the vineyard as well, although they were moving in
the opposite direction! After noticing the large "ghetto blaster" sitting
next to his compass, I explained to him he was going to end up at Block
Island if he didnt move the 2 20 ounce magnets a safe distance away.
Now if the weather turned bad on them....
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