Conference tallis::celt

    
    It is a feature of the Northern Ireland elections that only
    in ONE constituency is the Orange versus Green divide reflected
    in the possible outcome. This is in South Down where the SDLPs
    Eddie McGrady beat out Enoch Powell by only 731 votes last time
    out. The SDLP will pull out all the stops here to retain the seat
    against the Unionist candidate, with the Alliance, Sinn Fein and
    the Conservatives looking on and hoping to improve their vote.
    
    All the interesting contests are within rather than between 
    both parties. One is in West Belfast where Joe Hendron of the
    SDLP will be hoping to overturn Gerry Adams 2,200 majority.
    Given enough Protestant votes, he could do it, but Sinn Fein
    is not to be underestimated with its back to the wall. Probably
    the prospect of triumph in the British press if Adams loses will 
    earn him enough Nationalist votes to hold on.
    
    In Fermanagh-South Tyrone, Ken McGinniss of the Unionist party
    will definitely hold the seat once held by Bobby Sands and Owen
    Carron of Sinn Fein. Sinn Fein failed to persuade a fusion
    candidate (Peter Quinn President of the GAA) to run, ensuring 
    that the Nationalist majority will split between SDLP and
    Sinn Fein. A similar situation in Mid-Ulster will give the
    seat to Rev McCrea of the DUP.
    
    On the Nationalist side, John Hume and Seamus Mallon will 
    definitely win in Foyle and Armagh. 
    
    On the Unionist side, the rivalry is three-way between Unionist
    ,DUP and Alliance. Alliance hope that its leader John Alderdice 
    who has gained a favourable high profile in the media, may give
    them their first Westminister seat. 
    
    In the North there are basically 2 issues - peace and the
    Union (or the Border, if you wish) - taxation, jobs and
    the environment take back seat to these. In a way, it makes it
    an easy election to call. Proportional Representation, as we have
    it in the Republic, would earn 2 more seats for the Nationalists
    (one for Sinn Fein in Fermanagh), and ensure that Joe Hendron 
    would win in West Belfast. It might in fact ensure the election
    of more moderate candidates all round.
    
    Toby
    
    Toby 

    Whoever wins West Belfast, Toby, I hope they take their seat at
    Westminster.  The people of West Belfast have been disenfranchised for
    far too long, with nobody in the House to represent their interests
    and call attention to their plight.  In my opinion, for what it's
    worth, it has left the security forces, in particular the Army, with 
    too free a hand to do what they like within the constituency.
    
    Joe

    
    A survey in West Belfast found the following issues affecting the
    electorate:
    
    (Out of Ten):
    
    Tit-for-tat killings:					9.2
    Accidents caused by "joyriders" (=teenage car thieves)	8.7
    Security Forces Harrassment					8.65
    City-Centre Bombings					8.56
    Car Thefts by "joyriders"					8.3
    
    Sinn Fein support is strongest in the 34-44 age group and the
    unemployed. If non-voters vote, they will go 2-to-1 for the 
    SDLP. Understandably, the SDLP is concentrating on getting this
    vote out. Oddly, it is Sinn Fein who are going for the soft-focus
    media stuff: posters, glossy brochures etc. SDLP seems to be going
    for the hard slog on the doorsteps. One would expect it to be the
    other way round, but then Sinn Fein never seems to be short of
    ready cash.
    
    Like I said above, the only "debate" is within each community,
    SDLP vs Sinn Fein, and DUP vs Unionist vs Alliance. Last week
    the Unionist party refused to debate John Hume on radio because
    "we are not competing with him for votes". It exemplifies the
    divided community in the North. 
    
    Most commentators seem to be opting for no change in the seats:
    
    	Unionists:		10
    	DUP:			 3
    	SDLP:			 3
    	Sinn Fein:		 1
    
    Toby

    
    An opinion poll published this weekend shows a surprising amount
    of support for the Conservative Party in Northern Ireland (10%),
    and a sharp decline in support for Sinn Fein (to 7%).
    
    Howver, opinion polls in Northern Ireland are notoriously 
    inaccurate.
    
    The major speculation is whether a "hung parliament" with no one
    getting an absolute majority will mean greater leverage for the
    Unionists, who will have about 10 to 12 seats to bargain with.
    Such a scenario would endanger the Anglo-Irish agreement. 
    We can only wait and see.
    
    Toby

    Only news I've heard so far is that Gerry Adams, Sinn Fein leader, has
    lost his seat in West Belfast.  
    
    Tories/John Major have been re-elected as the government in UK with a
    majority of 17 seats.
    
    		Brian.
    
    		

    
Yes, Joe Hendron of the SDLP has taken the seat with a majority of 
approx 500.  Much to the consternation of unionists, Hendron recieved
a lot of votes froom the protestant Shankill area of the constituency.

Has anyone got any news on the result in South Down?

    I was listening to Radio Eireann last night and at about 12.30 they
    went over to Belfast City Hall to pick up the latest on the count. At
    that stage the boxes from the Shankill area were being opened and the
    tally men reckoned that Joe Hendron was pulling 1 in every 3 votes. 
    
    There was a recount but the result was confirmed at about 7.20 this
    morning. Apparently, Gerry Adams made a very bitter speech claiming
    that Joe Hendron's vote was an "anti-nationalist" vote. Obviously,
    there was that element in it, but the SDLP did canvass down the
    Shankill and probably picked up a lot of moderate unionist votes as
    well.
    
    I haven't heard anything from South Down yet. 
    
    Jimmy

    
    I am in the U.S. right now, so I heard Fri. morning that Gerry Adams
    lost his seat.
    
    I am delighted for Joe Hendron, who is a hard-working constituency
    man. My fear is that this will destroy Adams' authority within 
    Sinn Fein, and it will once again withdraw in on itself. Sinn Fein
    before Gerry Adams was a lunatic fringe ......... to his credit
    Adams has tried to bring it into mainstream politics. This
    failure may hand it back to the loonies again.
    
    The bombs in London are being interpreted here as a response by
    the IRA to the victory of John Major and to Adams' defeat. This
    is wrong ........ it must take weeks for the IRA to plan and
    set up a bombing like this. It is ludicrous to think that there
    would be no bombs if Labour won. The real messae is that 
    NO MATTER WHO WINS THE IRA WILL CONTINUE ITS CAMPAIGN.
    
    One can only respond with the words of Abraham Lincoln
    ".... among free men there can be no successful appeal from
    the ballot to the bullet, and those that do so must learn that
    they are apt to lose their case......."
    
    Toby

    
    My heart may be sorry for Labour, but my head tells me that this
    is the best possible outcome for Northern Ireland.
    
    Firstly, the spectre of the Unionists holding the balance of 
    power has been dispelled.
    
    Secondly, it will ensure continuity in discussions with the 
    Irish government and the inter-party talks.
    
    The fact is that the Conservatives have been the British party
    who delivered most on Northern Ireland: they prorogued Stormont,
    negotiated the Sunningdale Agreement, and the Anglo-Irish
    agreement. Labour caved in on the Loyalist Workers strike, did
    a deal with the Unionists to stay in power during the late
    '70s, and gave us Roy Mason, the most callous Northern Ireland
    secretary of them all.
    
    All in all, nothing to dance in the streets about, but a relieving
    of tension nevertheless.
    
    Toby

    
    Last time I heard Father Des Wilson speak, he said:
    
    "When the people choose their leaders, all must listen ...."
    
    Now that they have done that, will HE listen?
    
    Toby

    
    Sinn Fein supporters are going through some extraordinary convolutions
    of logic to explain away Adams' defeat.
    
    Apparantly, Adams base vote did not shrink in numerical terms. What
    was decisive was the approximately 3,000 to 3,500 Protestant voters
    who plumped for the SDLP. This is extraordinary in Northern Ireland,
    but Adams and his followers are claiming victory because "the majority
    of Nationalists voted for him".
    
    The deduction is that Protestant votes somehow don't count, only 
    Catholic ones. Democracy, how are ya!
    
    Overall, Sinn Fein's vote is down to 10% in NI, and across Ireland
    it is now about 3%. 
    
    Other losers in the election have been Ian Paisley's DUP whose
    share of the votes in NI (like Sinn Fein's) has been dropping
    off in election after election. When the "Big Fella" himself
    retires, his party will probably fall apart. Paisley is the
    longest serving MP in Northern Ireland.
    
    It has been a triumph for the SDLP and John Hume. They regained
    Gerry Fitt's old seat in West Belfast, and held South Down
    with a majority increased from 800 to 6000. They have clearly
    seen off the challenge of Sinn Fein, and handed that party a
    major propaganda disaster in its own heartland. In Mid-Ulster they 
    seem set, if they continue to win votes back from Sinn Fein, to gain 
    Rev. McCrea's seat which he holds for the DUP.
    
    As always, in NI it is unwise to predict any future, but the 
    election has been a victory for moderation as called out in the
    base note.
    
    Toby

    A technical political question for Toby.
    
    A group of middle-aged men approached me for a contribution in a pub on
    Saturday night. They had what were termed Easter Lillies, small emblems
    which were to be fastened to the lapel of a jacket with a pin.
    
    I found out later they were collecting for some republican party, what
    I need to know is which one??
    
    Nobody could give me a straight answer, I was told however, that it is
    customary in that part of the county. 
    

    
    During the split in the "Republican movement" in the early '70's,
    the so-called "Officials" were nicknamed "Stickies" because they
    wore Easter Lily badges stuck on by gum. Thus the "Provisionals"
    used pins to stick on their Easter lilies. So you may have been
    meeting the latter variety of "Republican".
    
    Reminds you of Gulliver's Travels, where a war broke out over
    opening a boiled egg at the pointed end or the round end.
    
    I put "Republican" in inverted commas above because these people are
    as far from true Republicanism as Pol Pot is from Mother Theresa.
    
    Toby