|
From: GAO::FERRIE "Liam Ferrie - Galway....dtn:822-2365 16-Jun-1989 1346" 16-JUN-1989 09:00
To: @IRISH.DIS,DECWRL::"[email protected]",FERRIE
Subj: Election News - 1
The boxes are still being opened in all the constituencies so
only preliminary estimates are available so far. The big news is
that the PD vote has collapsed. The opinion polls showed a
decline in support for the party but things are looking even
blacker for them than predicted. Pat O'Malley, Mary Harney,
Geraldine Kennedy and Ann Colley are among those likely to lose
their seats. Michael McDowell has conceded defeat in his
constituency.
The other surprise is the performance of the Green Party
candidates (that is green as in environment). They have
apparently done very well where they had candidates, which was
mainly the Dublin area. No one, including myself, had paid any
attention to them before the election. I do not think they are
likely to actually win any seats.
FF are doing much as the opinion polls predicted. FG likewise,
with maybe a slight increase here and there. The encouraging
news for the left, coming from the later polls, has proved
correct with Labour, the WP and independent socialist all doing
much better than in the last election.
The PD vote in Dublin seems to be going largely to FF with the
pundits on the radio saying that FF will probably scrape it.
However FF are suffering in some rural areas on specific issues,
such as the rod licence dispute and hospital closures.
- Galway West looks like no change in party representation.
Current betting is that Geoghegan-Quinn will stay ahead of O
Cuiv. There are no indications as to which of the FG
candidates will get elected. Michael D. has increased his
vote. Molloy will get elected but whether or not the PD
collapse has hurt him is not clear.
- In Mayo West A FF seat is at risk to independent, Frank Durcan.
- FF and FG will be fighting for the PD seat in Carlow-Kilkenny
- Brian Lenihan will top the poll in Dublin West. Austin Currie
will take the PD seat.
- FF will gain a seat in Dun Laoghaire.
- Clare - no change with Madelaine Taylor-Quinn polling the
better of the two FG candidates. Minister for the Marine,
Brendan Daly is likely to top the poll.
- Cork East is looking good for FF where they feared they might
lose a seat. FG may take a seat from the WP.
- Other Cork seats are not polling as well for FF.
- Cork North Central - Labour gain at the expense of PDs
- Cork North West - no change 2 FG, 1 FF.
- Donegal North East and South West - no change.
- FF to lose a seat in Sligo. Declan Bree, an independent
socialist candidate is polling well.
- FF may lose a seat in Roscommon with Sean Doherty in trouble.
An independent candidate looking to retain the hospital in
Roscommon town has surprised everyone with a strong vote.
- Michael Begley of FG may lose out to Labour's Michael Moynihan
in South Kerry.
- Tipp North - FF's Michael Smith will be fighting Lab's Ryan for
the final seat.
- Tipp South - Lab's Michael Ferris might take a FF seat here.
Some of the above could be totally wrong as some of the boxes are
still not open. For instance, Bree's strong vote is from the
Sligo town boxes. This will be diluted when the rural boxes are
opened. Also, little account has been taken of the possible
transfer patterns.
I will send something else from home this evening.
Regards
Liam
|
| Interestingly too, I heard this morning on Public Radio that back
in Britain, Maggie had had a battering at the polls - an exit poll
suggested that she'd got a percentage around the mid-30s, with her
main opposition, the Labour Party, getting a percentage of the vote
around the mid 40s. Looks like she is going to be losing a number
of seats... The Greens look like they've done well in Britain too.
Dunno if all the votes have been counted yet...
John
|