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Conference rusure::math

Title:Mathematics at DEC
Moderator:RUSURE::EDP
Created:Mon Feb 03 1986
Last Modified:Fri Jun 06 1997
Last Successful Update:Fri Jun 06 1997
Number of topics:2083
Total number of notes:14613

2077.0. "Markov Chains" by NETRIX::"[email protected]" (P. Krishna) Thu Jan 23 1997 14:14

T.RTitleUserPersonal
Name
DateLines
2077.1JAMIN::OSMANEric Osman, dtn 226-7122Fri Jan 24 1997 13:474
What is a markov chain ?  Is it a mathematical thing ?

/Eric
2077.2SPECXN::DERAMODan D'EramoFri Jan 24 1997 19:014
        It's how you determine probabilities of landing on a
        particular property in Monopoly. :-)
        
        Dan
2077.3IOSG::CARLINDick Carlin IOSG, Reading, EnglandMon Jan 27 1997 05:256
    Krishna
    
    Have you tried the web? If not, try searches on "monte carlo", "gibbs
    sampler" etc.
    
    Dick
2077.4matrix software a possible?MSE1::PATTERSONMon Jan 27 1997 07:316
    Also, depending on representation, you might be able to use some matrix
    manipulation package to solve an eigenvalue/eigenvector problem.
    
    what -is- the application, anyway, if we may ask?
    
    carl
2077.5NETRIX::"[email protected]"P. KrishnaMon Jan 27 1997 11:0957
Hello,
	This is a single reply to .1-0.4. First of all for (0.1), let
me define Markov Chains. Before that let me define Markov Process.

A Markov process is a stochastic process whose future state depends
solely on the present state and not on how the process arrived in
that state.

If the state space is discrete, then the markov process is called a 
markov chain.

If you are interested in markov chains/stochastic processes, please
refer to:
L. Kleinrock, Queueing Systems, Vol I & II.
K. Trivedi, Probability & Statistics with Reliability, Queueing, and
            Computer Science Applications.

-----------------------
I was interested in modeling a threshold based congestion control
mechanism. Without going into much details, let me give an overview
of the problem.

A single queue with a feedback loop to the input. The service rate of 
the queue is mu. When the queue occupancy is less than HIGH, the 
arrival rate into the queue is lambda. When the occupancy is more than
HIGH, the queue goes into a throttle mode, and the arrival rate is 
throttled to lambda_c. The arrival is throttled till the occupancy 
drops below LOW, when, the throttle is removed and the arrival rate 
increases back to lambda. 
For such a system, (apart from other things), I would like to 
determine the variation of throughput with different choices of HIGH
and LOW, and lambda_c.

This problem requires modeling the queue occupancy distribution. 
Basically, I would like to represent the queue state by (n, m), where 
n is the number in the queue, and m is the state of output link of 
the queue.
n: 0,1,....,HIGH
m: 0,1 (it indicates if the link is congested or not)

lambda and lambda_c are the arrival rates when m = 0, and m = 1, 
respectively.

pi(n, m) = probability that the queue size is n, and link state = m.

The size of the markov chain increases with the value of HIGH. Thus,
computing the transition probabilities by hand will be possible only
for small values of HIGH. That is why I am looking for some tools that
can numerically solve such chains.

I think (as also stated by 0.3 & 0.4) I can use some matrix
manipulation packages. Any help(pointers) will be appreciated.

Thanks,
Krishna
226-5406
[Posted by WWW Notes gateway]
2077.6subversive mathsAUSS::GARSONDECcharity Program OfficeMon Jan 27 1997 21:3929
    re .1, additional to .5
    
    <brain_dump rusty>
    
    In other words, imagine that a system exists in a certain state and for
    any other state has a probability of transitioning to that state
    (possibly the probability is zero for some or most pairs of states),
    this area of maths answers such questions as what is the long term
    behaviour of the system.
    
    One example is I think "Drunkard's Walk". In the 1D version you start
    at the origin on the X-axis and each step is a random step either
    forwards (+1) or backwards (-1) with equal probability. What is the
    average distance from the origin in the long term? Answer: 0 if memory
    serves - proving that drinking gets you nowhere. (-: In the 2D version
    you wander over the 2D lattice of points with integer coords and again
    if memory serves the expectation of the distance after n steps [the
    distance is a random variable] is sqrt(n).
    
    In some cases solving this problem means finding what M^n converges to
    where M is a matrix (obviously square) which in turn can be
    investigated by finding eigenvalues/vectors.
    
    </brain_dump>
    
    P.S. A famous text book on the Markov Process was banned by the
    communist authorities in Czechoslovakia because "process" means "trial"
    (as in a court case) and they assumed that the book was about the trial
    of some dissident, Markov. (Admittedly the name is suitably Slavic).
2077.7DXML's LAPACK routine?HPCGRP::MANLEYFri Feb 07 1997 12:146
        Re: .4,.5,.6

        The eigenvalue routines in the LAPACK portion of DXML (Digital
        eXtended Math Library) probably meet your needs.