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Conference rusure::math

Title:Mathematics at DEC
Moderator:RUSURE::EDP
Created:Mon Feb 03 1986
Last Modified:Fri Jun 06 1997
Last Successful Update:Fri Jun 06 1997
Number of topics:2083
Total number of notes:14613

1614.0. "Average length of a queue" by NSDC::RATCLIFF (Heisenberg may have been here) Wed May 20 1992 12:16

Dir/title=que didn't provide anything along the lines of what I'm looking for...

In "The Economist Numbers Guide", pp 163ff, I have a nice table showing
"number of people likely to be waiting for service", given 
1) the number of service points (1-6)
2) the "utilisation rate", defined as the average number of arrivals
   divided by the potential number of servings in one unit of time (0.1-5.8)

This table assumes multi-channel queuing, Poisson arrivals and
exponential serving. For instance, if on average four customers
arrive each hour, and it takes � an hour to serve each, the
utilisation rate is 2 and the table reveals that
- with 1 or 2 queues, there's an infinite # of customers waiting
- with 3 queues, 0.889 customers are waiting
- with 4 queues, 0.174, etc.

Hence my questions:
1) is the number of customers waiting the *total* number summed
on all queues, or is that customers per queue?
2) what precisely is meant by "exponential serving"?
3) how are these figures derived? in particular, suppose I have a
distribution that is not Poisson-based, or that the time for serving
is not exponential (eg, constant); what would the formula be?

Thanks in advance, John.
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1614.1Finally, something that I know...GRANPA::BAYOUNGReally CHOVAX::YOUNG...Sun May 24 1992 18:4355
    Actually this example makes a couple of other (very important)
    assumptions as well.  The most important is that there a a potentialy
    infinite number of customers and that their arrivals are independent of
    each other or the state of the service center.
    
>Hence my questions:
>1) is the number of customers waiting the *total* number summed
>on all queues, or is that customers per queue?
    
    The number of customers waiting (according to standard definitions) is
    the total of all queues.  By the way, a customer is counted as being in
    a queue, even if it is actually in service.  Thus the queue includes
    the service center.
    
>2) what precisely is meant by "exponential serving"?
    
    Precisely:
    
    	Let X be a continuous random variable that can assume any
    nonnegative value.  X is an exponential random variable if:
    
                 /
    		| 0,		t < 0
    pdf.X(t) = <     
    		| L*e^(-L*t),	t >= 0
    		 \
    
    Where:
    		t	=	Time...
    		pdf.X	=	the probability density function(pdf) of X
    		pdf.X(t) =	the pdf of X over time...
    		L	=	Lambda, the average arrival rate of
    				 customers.  (a positive real number)
    
>3) how are these figures derived? in particular, suppose I have a
>distribution that is not Poisson-based, or that the time for serving
>is not exponential (eg, constant); what would the formula be?
    
    The *formula* is already extremely complicated.  Take away these
    simplifing assumptions and it either becomes *incredibly* complex
    (except in some special cases) or an unsolved problem.
    
    These figures are derived using Probability theory, statistical theory,
    the theory of Stochastic functions, Markov Chain theory and the
    indispensible Little's Law.  It can get REAL messy.
    
    These figures (and related stuff) are crucial to several important
    fields, including Operations Analysis and Computer Performance Analysis
    (which uses Queueing Network Analysis).
    
    One of the definitive references for the mathematical formula (and the
    one I use heavily) is "Computer Performance Modeling Handbook" by
    Steven Lavenberg (Academic Press, 1983).
    
    --  Barry