T.R | Title | User | Personal Name | Date | Lines |
---|
618.1 | | SUBPAC::MISTRY | | Mon Dec 16 1996 18:36 | 7 |
618.2 | | NPSS::NEWTON | Thomas Newton | Mon Dec 16 1996 20:03 | 9 |
618.3 | Don't get too excited! | UNIFIX::HARRIS | Juggling has its ups and downs | Tue Dec 17 1996 08:58 | 20 |
618.4 | not quite dead yet .... | TROOA::MSCHNEIDER | Nothing witty to say | Tue Dec 17 1996 09:49 | 12 |
618.5 | yea, but... | UNIFIX::HARRIS | Juggling has its ups and downs | Tue Dec 17 1996 12:56 | 29 |
618.6 | Microsoft also hints... | DECWET::16.64.48.150::berkun | A False Sense of Security | Tue Dec 17 1996 18:13 | 38 |
618.7 | Investment Bankers..pah ! | RDGENG::WILLIAMS_A | | Tue Dec 17 1996 18:37 | 30 |
618.8 | | NPSS::NEWTON | Thomas Newton | Tue Dec 17 1996 19:50 | 16 |
618.9 | | BIGUN::nessus.cao.dec.com::Mayne | Sturgeon's Law | Wed Dec 18 1996 16:06 | 5 |
618.10 | | COL01::LINNARTZ | | Tue Jan 07 1997 10:59 | 102 |
618.11 | | INDYX::ram | Ram Rao, PBPGINFWMY | Tue Jan 14 1997 17:59 | 4 |
618.12 | done | ROM01::OLD_CIPOLLA | Bruno Cipolla | Mon Jan 27 1997 13:06 | 17 |
|
+ IBM WITHDRAWS WINDOWS NT (POWERPC EDITION)
As recently as November 19 that IBM issued an Ivory (customer
letter) trumpeting the launch of Windows NT 4.0 for the PowerPC
but this week, a mere two months later, the company puts out
another Ivory saying "effective immediately, IBM is withdrawing
Windows NT 4.0 (PowerPC Edition) from marketing and will not
ship the product as originally announced in Software
Announcement 296- 454, dated November 19, 1996." And in what
must be among the shortest statements of direction on record:
"In addition, IBM does not intend to complete fulfillment of
Statements of General Direction regarding Windows NT (PowerPC
Edition), including those announced in Software Announcement
295-267 on June 19, 1995" and "IBM does not intend to continue
further Windows NT development for the RS/6000."
|
618.13 | Interesting news | NPSS::NEWTON | Thomas Newton | Tue Jan 28 1997 21:06 | 21 |
|
+----------------------------------------------------------------------+
| <http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970127/tech/stories/apple_1.html> |
| |
| Apple Mulls closer Intel, Microsoft Ties - Paper |
| |
| NEW YORK - Computer maker Apple computer is considering closer ties |
| with semiconductor power Intel and software giant Microsoft, the New |
| York Times reported Sunday. |
| |
| Company executives told the newspaper Apple was weighing a line of |
| machines that run on Intel microprocessors. |
| |
| ... |
| |
| [Amelio] told the Times that within two or three years, "I would |
| like to have the most compatible personal computer in the industry, |
| able to run more software than anyone -- period." |
| |
| ... |
+----------------------------------------------------------------------+
|
618.14 | | NPSS::NEWTON | Thomas Newton | Mon Feb 10 1997 15:55 | 24 |
|
Now Windows NT on the PowerPC is officially dead:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
MICROSOFT DECISION GIVES BOOST TO DIGITAL
Boston Globe, 02/08/1997
Executives at Digital Equpment Corporation yesterday celebrated the
announcement from Microsoft Corp. that it would stop making its
Windows NT operating system for computers based on the PowerPC chip.
...
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
They can celebrate all they want, but I bet what John Q. Public is thinking is
MIPS -> Strike 1
PowerPC -> Strike 2
Alpha -> Strike 3 ... Digital just doesn't know it yet
and RISC is out!
|
618.15 | WNT already took off! | ROM01::OLD_CIPOLLA | Bruno Cipolla | Tue Feb 11 1997 03:10 | 10 |
| * MICROSOFT announced new data showing that its Windows NT Server
network operating system was the world's best-selling server
operating system in 1996. According to the latest sales report
from International Data Corp., sales of Windows NT Server grew by
85% in 1996, or about six times the rate of Novell NetWare.
Another analysis said the rapid customer adoption of Windows NT
Server has driven the overall growth for network operating
systems. (PR Newswire 01:08 PM ET 02/10/97) For the full text
story, see
http://www.merc.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=1479525-c31
|
618.16 | Best-selling != Highest % growth in sales | NPSS::NEWTON | Thomas Newton | Tue Feb 11 1997 08:29 | 15 |
|
Re: .15
Windows NT Server may have been the best-selling server OS, but those
IDC numbers certainly don't prove it. Without knowing the base sales
on which the percentage increases were calculated, there is no way to
determine which OS sold more total copies.
For instance, if Microsoft sold 2,000 copies of NT Server in 1995 and
3,700 copies in 1996, that would be an 85% increase. Now assume that
Novell sold 50,000 units in 1995 and had a 14% increase in sales (85/
6). Their total sales would be 57,000 units - making them the "best-
seller" despite a lower growth rate.
These are completely bogus numbers - but should illustrate the point.
|
618.17 | | BHAJEE::JAERVINEN | Ora, the Old Rural Amateur | Tue Feb 11 1997 09:11 | 6 |
| re .16: if you have a look at the article, there's a bit more detail.
According to an IDC forecast (of April last yer) NT should sell about
720,000 servers in '96, Novell about 1,097,000. I have no idea what the
real numbers were. NT has overtaken UNIX in any case.
|
618.18 | | BHAJEE::JAERVINEN | Ora, the Old Rural Amateur | Wed Feb 12 1997 04:07 | 9 |
| Updated numbers for 1996 from mid-January (IDC):
NT Servers 720,000
Unix servers 636,000
NT clients 3,008,000
Unix clients 843,000
Other researchers have other figures..
|
618.19 | just to add "depth" ;-) | NAMIX::jpt | FIS and Chips | Mon Feb 17 1997 07:58 | 53 |
| > NT Servers 720,000
> Unix servers 636,000
IMHO:
What ever the numbers are, before we can make business, we must
understand that these numbers don't describe the market segments,
and before we understand the segmentation well enough it is next
to impossible make strong conclusions (rewenue, margin etc) of
different areas.
Also judging segments by cold numbers WILL lead to misjudgements
and wrong decisions. It's easy to say for example that "PC's have
taken the world and have outselled RISC servers", this has been
true for years, and NT itself does not change this. The real
content and value for us is to uderstand how SEGMENTS develope
(NT vs UNIX is NOT a segment!!!) and what drives customer
investements in near future and long term.
I just want to stress one point: With Windows NT only, Digital would
be dead quicker than you imagine. Even number of units is satisfactory
and in some SEGMENTS exceeds the number of units of for example
UNIX servers we sell, the Windows NT market is still in low cost
high volume systems, when UNIX market is mostly mid/high end
solutions with totally different prices and margins. By the way,
before someone trys to challenge this, yes, there is market
demand for High End Windows NT systems (we could have sold
1st 8000 series WNT servers at '95 TurboLaser announcement ;) but
size of that market is significantly lower TODAY than the UNIX
market size in same area. Price difference between Intel and
Alpha based high end servers can be even surpricingly small,
but the demand is still too low.
About the NT Servers: We must sell huge numbers of NT servers to
be profitable AND maintain Digital ~60k employee company. It would
be same if we'd try to survive selling 1000A class machines only
with 4000 series "boost and support". Alpha product line alone
on NT world would be suicide, we need strong and coherent
Intel/Alpha message to be key player in markets:
Re: MIPS - PowerPC .... Alpha? w/ Windows NT support...
You're right, customers are asking this, and that's why
you should point out sources like:
http://www.microsoft.com/corpinfo/press/1997/Feb97/PowerPr.htm
It focuses on PowerPC, but is very favourable towards Alpha :)
-jari
|
618.20 | | STAR::KLEINSORGE | Frederick Kleinsorge | Mon Feb 17 1997 13:59 | 48 |
| The raw unit numbers *do* say something. Maybe not everything.
Yes, you need the complete numbers to understand things. While I've
seen parts of the numbers from time-to-time, like many people, I have
to make guesses about the real picture.
What has been put to me by a number of better informed individuals is
that: NT is losing money, but the slope of the curve is towards
increasing volume, and profitability. VMS is making money, but it's
growth and profits are flat. Unix is losing money, and its curves are
flat.
So, religion aside, the business folks are milking VMS for all it's
worth (a slash & burn strategy is well under way), and we continue to
focus on NT assuming that if the curve is extended to infinity (a
questionable assumption) - is a growing and profitable segment. UNIX
is being marginalized into niches where the NT business has not yet
caught up (as is VMS being marginalized 2-3 years ahead of the UNIX
business).
If you want to slice this all from a different perspective, you need to
take a look around at what drove the UNIX market:
- Cheap software
- Lots of programmers (UNIX was universal at most colleges)
- Leverage over vendor for HW price
At first blush, this was great, but as time went on, customers and
vendors find themnselves just as vendor locked as they were with VMS or
MVS.
Windows 95/Windows NT provide the basis for delivering what UNIX only
promised:
- Cheap *universal* software
- Lots of programmers
- Leverage over vendor for HW price
When Windows was confined to DOS PC, it could not compete with UNIX for
the high-end applications. It now can.
This is *bad* for companies who sell HW. We are now all racing towards
a real commodity business. No more customer lock-ins (like VMS).
Unfortunatey, there is *nothing* inherent in UNIX, VMS, AIX, MAC-OS,
etc, that cannot be provided on a Windows based platform - given enough
time and demand.
|
618.21 | | SAYER::ELMORE | Steve [email protected] 4123645893 | Mon Feb 17 1997 15:19 | 13 |
| re .-1
That was the most clear and concisely written history of what
has happened in our industry I have read for awhile. I think you hit
it right on.
I think the business hierachy at Digital must see it the same way.
They are probably praying we can profit on hardware and perhaps
services. Someone has to supply hardware though. The question is can
we do that efficiently and profitably?
The last five years however says hardware is a tough business to make
any money in. Bill Gates chose the more sure thing it seems.
|
618.22 | Alpha NT declared dead by misinformed user | NPSS::NEWTON | Thomas Newton | Mon Feb 17 1997 15:45 | 14 |
| The other day, I was in a computer chat room. One of the people there
insisted that Alpha would not be supported by Windows NT after V4.0.
I tried to correct him, but he kept insisting that he was right, I was
wrong, "and if you don't believe me, ask DEC Sales & Support".
He said he had gotten a letter from DEC saying Windows NT would not be
supported on his AlphaStation 255 (I think that's the model...).
Then he said DEC cancelled development of Alpha NT (!!!). He may have
said the reason was that Microsoft asked too much money; I know that's
supposed to have been the reason IBM and Motorola dropped NT/PPC work.
How do we counter FUD/misinformation like this?
|
618.23 | Developing CPU chips seems to be an opportunity | WIBBIN::NOYCE | Pulling weeds, pickin' stones | Mon Feb 17 1997 15:51 | 5 |
| > The last five years however says hardware is a tough business to make
> any money in. Bill Gates chose the more sure thing it seems.
Many of Intel's customers are having trouble making money, true.
But Intel itself seems to be raking it in.
|
618.24 | | NPSS::NEWTON | Thomas Newton | Mon Feb 17 1997 16:12 | 10 |
| >> Many of Intel's customers are having trouble making money, true.
>> But Intel itself seems to be raking it in.
That's because chip-making has formidable barriers of entry, and Intel has
a near-monopoly on the x86 market.
Anyone with a bit of seed capital can start a clone business, building PCs
out of the components you see in the back of Computer Shopper. So you get
thousands of vendors, and cut-throat competition among all of them (except
for the top brand names).
|
618.25 | It's not just hardware | DOGONE::WOODBURY | | Mon Feb 17 1997 16:21 | 28 |
| Not to ignore .22, but rather to continue on Fred's good comments,
I think that many smart companies today are generating margin from
more than one source towards the same end customer so that they
can (when competition dictates) share the margins across a larger
piece of business. Microsoft gets the OS and applications so
they can be more aggressive in that application market where their
product isn't cutting it alone. Micron made memory chips and
PC's so they could afford to be more aggressive in the commodity
desktop (too bad for them, the memory market dropped through the
floor!). Intel does CPU chips, peripherals, and now they can
control and dictate the high volume motherboard business - and they're
certainly not hurting...
I'd like to think that Digital is in a great spot now, with the
diversity - we make CPUs (both high performance and low power winners),
servers, OSs, Networks, and do services (to name a few). One
problem is that we still havn't aggreed to let these margins spread
across the true "we". Instead we have had seperate business groups,
competing sales, and different delivery channels. Hardware isn't
dead as a business, but we've got to act a lot smarter. I'm seeing
encouraging signs of corporation at the sales incentive level but
it sure would be sweet to get back the momentum that was building
before last Q4's slam... We've lost a lot of time.
Of course, it wouldn't hurt to have a monopoly like Wintel!
sigh.... mark
|
618.26 | | NPSS::NEWTON | Thomas Newton | Mon Feb 17 1997 17:04 | 10 |
|
>> Windows 95/Windows NT provide the basis for delivering what UNIX only
>> promised:
>>
>> - Cheap *universal* software
>> - Lots of programmers
>> - Leverage over vendor for HW price
Linux running on PC and Mac clones may deliver most of what commercial
Unix products did not.
|
618.27 | | STAR::KLEINSORGE | Frederick Kleinsorge | Mon Feb 17 1997 18:07 | 27 |
| Cheap Universal software == binary compatability == shrink wrapped SW
== Windows.
Linux is a great new toy for Universities, and for the last generation
of O/S tinkerers. Don't get me wrong here, I think Linux is cool. But
it isn't what your secretary will run on her desk, what your kids will
learn on in elementary school, and what you will run down to buy SW
for at the local Wal-Mart.
Now, I'm sure people will be quick to point out anecdotal evidence that
there are commercial users that have started to use Linux... but I
don't think it's going to be much more than a sub-culture of true
believers (just like there will always be Mac fanatics, and VMS
fanatics) that will use Linux for commercial, bet-your-business work.
PCs and Windows *is* what most small business bet-their-business on.
They keeps their books, do their payroll, and all of the day-to-day
operation of the business. Everyone from my plumber to my tax
accountant. And it's what mid-sized, and large customers will also
start to move to with NT servers combined with their PC desktops.
Resistance is futile ;-) About the best attempt to find a way out of a
Microsoft future was the SUN JAVA and Oracle Network Computer strategy.
But it looks like MS recognized the threat, and is heading it off by
embracing it, and making it their own.
|
618.28 | | MSE1::PCOTE | Rebuilt NT: 163, Rebuilt VMS:1 | Mon Feb 17 1997 18:38 | 17 |
|
imo, one of the best industry trends is the "thin client" concept.
I don't care who makes'em but select digital (alpha servers) to
supply the compute power and select digital (storageworks) to
supply your mega data requirements and select digital to supply
your high availability requirements (clusters). That's where
the margins are anyway.
These desktops PCs (wintel) are a pain. And I'm a seasoned user.
Me thinks digital should really be pushing this trend. And I think
digital has a very good message and solution.
Not to mention that thin clients may finally bring an end to
the o/s religious war campaign. (yawn)
fwiw
|
618.29 | | NPSS::NEWTON | Thomas Newton | Mon Feb 17 1997 18:48 | 8 |
|
If you define "cheap universal software" as == shrink-wrapped binaries
available from many retail outlets, then only (DOS, Windows)/Intel and
MacOS/(68k, PowerPC) qualify.
Linux isn't what I'd recommend for every secretary's desktop, but for
workstations and servers, it is often a realistic alternative. Unlike
NT, it is free, and doesn't lock you into one source of OS support.
|
618.30 | well done, Fred! | CERN::HOBBS | Congrats to the Ignoble Peace Prize winner! (http://www.eecs.harvard.edu/ig_nobel) | Tue Feb 18 1997 02:04 | 9 |
| ,27> Resistance is futile ;-) About the best attempt to find a way out
fya: http://www.gvc.dec.com/digital-at-cern/hobbs/borg.html
.29> [LINUX] is free, and doesn't lock you into one source of OS support.
More like it locks you into 0 sources of OS support.
-cw
|
618.31 | | STAR::KLEINSORGE | Frederick Kleinsorge | Tue Feb 18 1997 08:32 | 15 |
|
Being member of the Order of Operating System Developers, in the
Priesthood of Computer Programmers... I can only wish Linux all the
luck in the world. Windows and Windows NT have the likely potential
to kill most O/S development, short of CS masters thesis research, and
work in Redmond.
Linux is the latest example of the Stallman concept of free software,
charge for documentation, training, and support. If Linux was
binary compatable with Win32, it might have a chance. None of this
Windows-on-X11 cruft, translators, emulators, but a real, reverse
engineered, unencumbered Win32... it might keep MS honest. Of course,
it would also attract an expensive legal assault by MS as well.
|
618.32 | | WRKSYS::INGRAHAM | Andy | Tue Feb 18 1997 09:37 | 11 |
| > .29> [LINUX] is free, and doesn't lock you into one source of OS support.
> More like it locks you into 0 sources of OS support.
Some would question the level of support available from Microsoft. Maybe
not so for corporations, but for the little guy it's just not worth it.
Then again, with so many MS users, someone in your neighborhood is likely
to be able to help. That's the same as it is with Linux, except the
numbers are fewer (but the users perhaps better informed? and better able
to understand/fix it, having sources available).
|
618.33 | Linux is free; how cheap is WABI? | BBPBV1::WALLACE | john wallace @ bbp. +44 860 675093 | Wed Feb 19 1997 05:15 | 4 |
| Linux may be free-ish (my local s/w shop now advertises Caldera Open
Linux for �40) but WABI is advertised for �150+. That's a lot of money
to have to pay for the inevitable occasions when a Wintel application
is *required* even if Linux could offer 98% of the rest.
|
618.34 | Linux is a toy | KERNEL::CARPENTERS | One inode short of a file system | Wed Feb 19 1997 05:36 | 7 |
| Linux is OK for OS tinkering (don't forget that NetBSD also runs on
Alpha) but our customers run applications. I don't see SAP, Oracle,
Informix, Sybase, etc releasing products for the free Unix clones so
the argument is dead.
Stephen.
Unix Tech Support
|
618.35 | TANSTAAFL | BHAJEE::JAERVINEN | Ora, the Old Rural Amateur | Wed Feb 19 1997 07:06 | 3 |
| re .33: ...and add a few other commercial add-ons (Motif, ...) it'll be
more expensive than Windows NT server.
|
618.36 | | WRKSYS::INGRAHAM | Andy | Wed Feb 19 1997 07:19 | 9 |
| Re: .34
This is not necessarily in support of Linux ... but I have seen
applications at least in the CAE/CAD space advertised with Linux support.
Stating that Linux is a toy --> Linux is dead, sounds familiar to a certain
Intel architecture in the early 1980's, running an OS by a company that had
experience making BASIC interpreters. Linux might not have a future as a
serious contender, but there's much more to the argument than simply that.
|
618.37 | WNT multiuser and thin (very) clients | ROM01::OLD_CIPOLLA | Bruno Cipolla | Wed Feb 19 1997 14:38 | 8 |
| i believe/hope that the future is multiuser WNT servers (w/Citrix
winframe) and thin clients like Winterms from Wyse, NCD etc.
This at least for all the millions of non-power users of PCs
i currently have a lan with five PCs at home (WNT, W95, WIN311 and even
a rainbow) and i'm just fed-up of "managing the fucking thing"
Bruno
|
618.38 | | BHAJEE::JAERVINEN | Ora, the Old Rural Amateur | Wed Feb 19 1997 15:45 | 15 |
| re .37:
>i currently have a lan with five PCs at home
Well that's your own fault, Bruno... :-) sipping a glass of Sangiovese
is much more relaxing than managing a network.
Seriously though, I think something alonmg the lines of WinFrame must
be the answer, at least in corporate environments (though the Citrix
stuff leaves a lot to be desired; we have one in production use at the
office, it's still at 3.51 and not terribly stable). FWIW, there's a
new one in the game, NTERPRISE (see www.exodustech.com). They claim
it's an unmodified NT (though the fact that they aren't on NT 4.0 yet
either makes me a bit suspicious).
|
618.39 | Powerpc... long from cg | ROM01::OLD_CIPOLLA | Bruno Cipolla | Mon Apr 07 1997 09:40 | 166 |
|
+ POWERPC - A FALSE DAWN?
PowerPC. A coup that became a fiasco. Will it degenerate into
farce as the future of Apple looks bleaker than ever? Timothy
Prickett analyzes the current players and their strategies.
From Multimedia Futures, a sister publication.
Like everybody else that staked money on the PowerPC, Martin
Burns, manager for Motorola's European operations, is concerned
about the desktop market in general and Apple in particular.
"I think PowerPC is pretty well positioned for network
computers," he says, "and any desktop that doesn't come from
Intel." As for Apple, he says that Motorola will do all it can
to help Apple sell its own and clone MacOS, and he is adamant
that Rhapsody, Apple's forthcoming operating system based on
the NeXtStep object-oriented environment, will run on PowerPC
chips. "Apple will never move to Intel. PowerPC still has the
best price/performance and multimedia performance in the
market. If anything, Rhapsody will couple Apple more closely to
PowerPC,"he said. However, not everyone shares his point of
view. "NeXt runs on Intel chips, not PowerPC, and Apple is not
committed, long-term, to the PowerPC," declares Stephen Smith,
an analyst and managing director at Paine Webber. "IBM promised
Apple that it could deliver twice the performance of Intel
chips and it dropped the ball. PowerPC has been a technical
failure as well as a marketing failure." Even so, why would
Apple risk a chip change at this stage and put Rhapsody on
Intel chips? According to Smith, the move would be less
disruptive than many might assume. 70% of the current installed
Macintosh base is still using the Motorola 68K chip, he says.
And, of the remaining 30%, the majority of those customers are
still running 68K programs emulated on the PowerPC platform.
"Frankly, PowerPC is a niche player," says Christopher Goodhue,
research director of end user computing at Gartner Group.
Goodhue expects IBM to sell a fair number of its forthcoming G3
PowerPC Unix workstations. He says that IBM will have to push
its new Windows NT Pentium Pro workstations a lot harder,
adding that "The volumes are going to be from users who want to
spend less money than they would on Unix workstation - or users
who want to run NT applications." Goodhue believes that IBM can
make some headway, but he is less optimistic about Apple's
prospects with the PowerPC machines. "The Mac market share of
desktops is shrinking, although the Mac clone market is
growing. Apple's whole strategy lacks coherence and
credibility. Copland didn't play out, and we have to wait two
more years for Rhapsody. Even where Apple has the advantage - a
better fit and finish - Wintel is good enough for 95% of the
market. In 1997, being different is not being better." Lamar
Potts, vice president of operating system and technology
licensing at Apple Computer, believes that the situation is not
as dire as the industry watchers are suggesting. He argues
there is no confusion about Apple's support for the PowerPC.
"The PowerPC is our platform of choice... and we plan to use it
up to 2000, with more general plans beyond that." Rhapsody, he
says, will run on the PowerPC, which does not preclude Apple
from examining other processors. As to the immediate issue of
selling as many Macs as possible - Potts adds: "Apple has to
turn the Macintosh around. For one thing, it is hard for Apple
to invest in moving Mac technology forward if we don't get the
units up." In the wake of Heidi Roizen's departure - she is the
the Silicon Valley hotshot hired only last year to cultivate
independent software developers for the Mac - Apple is
particularly sensitive about its software problems. "Software
developers write programs based on seats and driving up that
number will make independent software vendors more enthusiastic
about MacOS," says Potts. He points out that Apple is making
moves to address the needs of personal computer buyers, who are
looking at features and price just as much as they are
software. According to Apple and Motorola Computer Group - it
sells embedded systems, clone Macs and motherboards to Apple
clone suppliers - key to the Mac revival, will be the Common
Hardware Reference Platform (CHRP). Aka, the PowerPC Platform.
CHRP to the rescue
CHRP is a set of hardware and software standards that enables
Mac clones to use common personal computer components and be
compatible with real Macs. The original intent was to support
AIX, as well as MacOS and Windows NT on the CHRP, but NT on the
PowerPC is finished and AIX is deemed inappropriate for most
customers. The CHRP is expected to be finalised in May. Both
Apple and Motorola think this will be instrumental in helping
establish a viable and large Macintosh clone market. "This will
be the first time people can really make clone Macs," says
Potts. "Apple has only a dozen MacOS licensees. Intel has
somewhere between 8,000 and 12,000 partners pushing its
products. If we can get a fraction of these vendors to go with
MacOS and CHRP, we will get the Mac base to grow." Apple says
that it predicts the number of MacOS licensees will be in the
hundreds by the end of this year, and as a bare minimum, it
expects the clone market to triple from 1996's figures of
200,000 unit shipments. Those numbers sound low, even to the
Motorola Computer Group, which sold 44,000 of its StarMax
Macintosh clones in the three weeks following announcement last
November. It is still selling high-end Mac clones at that clip.
The Group not only sells Macintoshes, but like IBM, it is
permitted to sub-license the Mac operating system out to other
parties. According to Dennis Saloky, marketing director at
Motorola Computer Group, the company has four MacOS
sub-licensees today and expects to double that number this
year, and again the year after. He says that the Group wants to
build a $1 billion systems business by the year 2000, and that
CHRP, which will cut at least 10% out of the cost of building a
Mac clone, will go a long way toward bringing Macintoshes into
parity with Windows.
Full Circle
Not everyone is convinced that the CHRP will save MacOS and
PowerPC on the desktop. "The future of PowerPC on the desktop
is tied to Apple, and that is not a pretty picture," says
Nathan Brookwood, principal analyst for microprocessors at
Dataquest. "Apple has not convinced me that it will grow the
Mac market, which we see flat this year and shrinking next
year. As far as I can tell, Apple is not growing the base, it's
just shifting where Mac buyers get their computers. Everybody's
eating at the same table." Brookwood is convinced that the Mac
base will continue to dwindle, but he holds out one hope that
for Apple that may give it enough time and money to get its
Rhapsody plans in order. Some people believe that a Mac upgrade
cycle could help prop up sales for Apple in the near-term. But
even with that, Brookwood says he is still pessimistic about
the PowerPC's prospects in bringing in new customers or
attracting software developers. "The Mac clone business is
different from the Intel clone business," he says. "The Wintel
market is driven by Microsoft and Intel, and no one is worried
about their long-term prospects. If an Acer or a Gateway 2000
evaporates, it has very little effect on the personal computer
market as a whole. But if Apple goes down, the whole Mac clone
business goes down with it. The difference is extremely
important." Dataquest is equally unimpressed with the record of
IBM's PowerPC efforts. "It doesn't have a good high-end PowerPC
workstation, and at the low-end, Sun is running roughshod over
IBM," says Brookwood. "IBM's PowerPC server business is a good
one, but Unix is a stagnant market. Most of the growth in the
midrange will be driven by Windows NT, which PowerPC no longer
supports. Many argue that Unix variants such as AIX are better
operating systems than NT, but Microsoft has the resources to
change that, and it will." None of this means that either IBM
or Motorola will abandon PowerPC. "I don't expect PowerPC to go
away any time soon," says Linley Gwennap, editor of The
Microprocessor Report. "IBM and Motorola will continue to
invest heavily in PowerPC chips, and for the most part they
seem to be keeping pace with Intel in performance. IBM is very
committed to PowerPC for both the RS/6000 and the AS/400. It
will continue to invest regardless of Apple." So where does all
that leave PowerPC? In just about the same place that the
Motorola 68K was during the years before the PowerPC was
announced. Before 1991, the 68K chip was used as the main brain
in Apple computers, and it is likely that 68K circuits were the
basis of the CMOS processors in IBM's AS/400 and 9370 mainframe
systems. Motorola still has a very strong embedded processor
market and is looking to adopt faster technology. The real
difference this time around is that Apple is much weaker, and
that can be attributed to the unremitting efforts of Intel and
Microsoft. If IBM and Motorola had pipped Intel to the post,
launching speedy chips, the odds are that Apple was still
likely to stumble with Copland and fail to foster a lively clone
market. All the excitement over the PowerPC effort and the
fight for desktop control has amounted to nothing much. The
Intel-Microsoft tag team has taken out the IBM-Apple-Motorola
triumvirate without any real blood being spilt.*
|
618.40 | | DPE1::ARMSTRONG | | Mon Apr 07 1997 19:43 | 25 |
| > <<< Note 618.39 by ROM01::OLD_CIPOLLA "Bruno Cipolla" >>>
> -< Powerpc... long from cg >-
Bashing Apple articles are more common that bashing DEC, and even less
factual.
DEC should be so lucky to have its VMS customers 'just running their
old software in emulation'. PowerMacs run ALL the old 68K code
perfectly in emulation, and much faster than the old 68K machines
ever dreamed. this is a problem?
Its true that native apps run faster? This is news?
>"IBM and Motorola will continue to
>invest heavily in PowerPC chips, and for the most part they
>seem to be keeping pace with Intel in performance.
Keeping pace? Apple just announced a 300MHz PowerMac...double the performance
of a 200MHz Pentium/MMX. No Intel based laptop can touch a PowerPC laptop.
There are 450-500MHz PowerMacs coming out soon. this is keeping pace.
We in DEC should understand how difficult it is to be steamrolled by
Intel/uSoft. Apple is right along side us getting crushed. But I hope
no one here believes all the mistatements in this article.
bob
|
618.41 | On the desktop ? Hah. | KAMPUS::NEIDECKER | EUROMEDIA: Distributed Multimedia Archives | Tue Apr 08 1997 03:19 | 19 |
| The 300 Mhz 603e is a nice low-power chip, but it's nothing to
write home about in terms of performance. Quoting from the press
release:
The 300 MHz PowerPC 603e microprocessor has an estimated SPECint95
of 7.4 and an estimated SPECfp95 of 6.1.
Compare that to 6.41/4.66 for the Pentium-MMX/200 I don't see
a factor of 2 (it's 15% and 31%, respectively). In the non-laptop
market (which is what Apple announced), you have to fight the
Pentium Pro (and soon Pentium II):
Pentium Pro 180/256 7.28 5.59
Pentium Pro 200/256 8.20 6.21
Pentium Pro 200/512 8.58 6.48
So announcing a chip that falls somewhere between a Pentium Pro
180 and Pentium Pro 200 in a much more aggressive (0.25um) process
technology is not my idea of excitement.
|
618.42 | | DPE1::ARMSTRONG | | Tue Apr 08 1997 11:15 | 9 |
| > Pentium Pro 180/256 7.28 5.59
> Pentium Pro 200/256 8.20 6.21
> Pentium Pro 200/512 8.58 6.48
The PowerPC chip comparable to the Pentium Pro would
be the 604e, not the 603e. Where did you find the
benchmarks for the PowerPC?
thanks
bob
|
618.43 | www.spec.org | KAMPUS::NEIDECKER | EUROMEDIA: Distributed Multimedia Archives | Wed Apr 09 1997 04:25 | 8 |
| The PowerPC 603e/300 number is from the Motorola press release. The
SPEC numbers for the PPC 604e/200 are:
Motorola MVME2604-2161 9.34 8.92
Motorola PowerStackII Pro3000/200 8.00 6.31
IBM RS/6000 43P-140 7.22 5.23
All of these results are from the official SPEC submissions
|