Conference nyoss1::market_investing

> As of close on Friday, March 6, 1997
> Symb LastTrad  SoldAt	Diff	#Shares
>    U  22.375	6.625	15.75	4000	$63,000.00
>  AMD  39.5	17.375	22.125	200	$ 4,425.00

As of close on Wednesday, March 12, 1997
Symb LastTrad  Change %Chg    Bid      Ask    DayLow   DayHigh  52Wlow   52WHigh
   U  26.5    +1      +3.9   V:  1541500      25.25    26.625   15.125   26.5
 AMD  45.375  +3.625  +8.7   V:   318300      43.625   47.75    10.25    42.25

	which translates to an additional 4.125/share gain (or another
	$16,500.00!) I missed out on US Air[ways] and 5.875/share
	gain (or $1,175.00) on AMD.

	AMD was upgraded from buy to strong buy by some analyst, and U
	was given as the top airline stock to buy by the guest market
	analyst on last Friday's NBR.

I believe you're basically right Jeff - in the short time I've traded stocks,
I would have done much better to just 'sit tight' on some of them rather than
sell off. Some notables for me have been AMAT (bought at ~37, dropped to mid
20s, sold when it rebounded to 39, now it's about 51), CPQ (similar story -
sold off at about break-even around 47, now around 79), and others - all just
in the past year.

I've been hurt by watching my portfolio too closely and seeing negative
numbers next to a certain stock for too long. I end up feeling that I'd better
cut my losses, when instead I end up locking them in and missing a potential
gain.

If the health of the company really isn't a question in your mind, you should
probably just hold the stock until it comes back in favor. But if a stock goes
down and the reasons you bought the stock in the first place change, you do
need to evaluate whether or not you'd buy it at the current price (ignoring
the fact you already own it). If not, then you may want to sell. However if
the long term prospects still look good, you may want to hang on.

I've gone to both extremes, however in this market it appears that eventually
every dog has its day.

-Jeremy

    Jeff,
    
    I commend you for putting out there what many have suspected for some
    time now - that you don't know stocks from a hill of beans!
    
    Just kidding.  I commend you for admitting what many find unable to do,
    which is admit that we tend to misstime the market when purchasing
    individual stocks.  It is easy to do - we don't have nearly the time to
    research the markets correctly, we rely upon our human emotions, and so
    forth.  I, too, can admit that I have made many mistakes in this
    regard, Digital stock being the most apparent.  And while I have had
    some notable successes, where I have doubled or tripled my $ in a short
    period of time, I suspect that I would have been further ahead by
    following another path, namely:
    
    1. Invest in a solid portfolio of mutual funds, such as a variety of
    index funds, not just the S&P500.  This group has not always had the
    success it has had recently, so be prepared for its eventual downturn
    by investing in other indices, too.
    
    2. If you want to continue to invest in individual stocks, and are not
    that speculative of an investor, build a portfolio of strong, dividend
    paying (if possible) stocks.  They weather downturns much better than
    non-paying stocks, and generally give excellent returns over time.
    
    One of the problems I think many investors have right now is this push
    to deliver market-beating returns.  While admirable, it causes many of
    us to take undo risks, which is murderous to our net worth over time. 
    For recent market investors, used to seeing 20+% returns from the last
    few years, it is difficult to imagine the historic market average over
    time of 10% or so.  At 10% your money will double in approximately
    seven years.  That is a solid return, but most people are very
    dissatified with that.  But I suspect that the approach I mentioned
    above in #1 and #2 will give at least those rates of returns.  For
    those who try individual stocks, especially the uninitiated, I daresay 
    the returns will be somewhat less.
    
    Enjoy reading your notes, Jeff.
    
    Chuck
                

> I commend you for admitting what many find unable to do,
> which is admit that we tend to misstime the market when purchasing
> individual stocks.

	I think you mis-understood, my problem is not mis-timing the
	market when "purchasing" individual stocks, but when "selling"!

> 2. If you want to continue to invest in individual stocks, and are not
> that speculative of an investor, build a portfolio of strong, dividend
> paying (if possible) stocks.  They weather downturns much better than
> non-paying stocks, and generally give excellent returns over time.

	Well there is a downside to dividend paying stocks, at least
	if living here in NH.  We don't have a broad based income tax,
	but we do have a dividends and interest tax (with an exemption
	for the first so much $).  But we have no capital gains tax.

>> As of close on Friday, March 6, 1997
>> Symb LastTrad  SoldAt  Diff	#Shares
>>    U  22.375	6.625	15.75	4000	$63,000.00
> As of close on Wednesday, March 12, 1997
> Symb LastTrad  Change %Chg    Bid      Ask    DayLow   DayHigh  52Wlow   52WHigh
>    U  26.5    +1      +3.9   V:  1541500      25.25    26.625   15.125   26.5

	:-((((((((((((  Talk about selling the goose that lays the golden
	eggs :-((((((((((((

	That's *exactly* $110,000 of *additional* gain/profit I missed
	out on by selling 2 years too early :-((((((((((((((((((((((((

Symbol: U (USAIR GROUP) [NYSE]
Last Trade: 34 3/8, Change 5 1/2 (19.05%) at Apr 23  4:01:46
Low & High: 29 1/4 & 34 3/8 (spread 5 1/8)
52 Week Low & High: 15 1/8 & 29 1/8 (spread 14)
Volume/# of Trades: 4167400 / 793 (5255 shares/trade)
P/E: 10.70, EPS: 2.70, Market Cap: 1573.00, Beta: 1.11, EPS Growth: 82.80

	FWIW, the airline released MUCH better than expected earnings today,
	a good profit compared to a loss same Q last year.

	From $4/share on Dec. 30th 1994, to almost $35/share today,
	talk about a growth stock!!!