| T.R | Title | User | Personal
Name | Date | Lines |
|---|
| 1017.1 | | ASABET::SOTTILE | Get on Your Bikes and Ride | Fri Jul 12 1996 11:53 | 4 |
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re -1
probably both
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| 1017.2 | Xref | 2155::michaud | Jeff Michaud - ObjectBroker | Fri Jul 12 1996 12:06 | 1 |
| 864 CSCMA::BALICH 15-MAY-1995 42 Tech. stocks are surging today bigtime
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| 1017.3 | NBR special guest. | SHOGUN::JAMBU_S | Skating away on the thin ice of a new day | Fri Jul 12 1996 16:17 | 9 |
| last night the guest in NBR says some tech companies are getting
hammered although they might have good earnings coming up.
He thinks it might be an oppurtunity to buy( i guess if you have the
stomach for it.)
I think they have some in NBR tonight as well who is going to
talk about the recent tech sell off
but it sure does hurt....ouch...!!
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| 1017.4 | W$W | 2155::michaud | Jeff Michaud - ObjectBroker | Fri Jul 12 1996 18:55 | 14 |
| > last night the guest in NBR says some tech companies are getting
> hammered although they might have good earnings coming up.
> He thinks it might be an oppurtunity to buy( i guess if you have the
> stomach for it.)
I've seen a ton of analysts over the last couple months who
keep saying to buy tech stocks. In that time they've gone down
further and futher :-(
> I think they have some in NBR tonight as well who is going to
> talk about the recent tech sell off
The guest market monitor that is scheduled for tonight on NBR
is a regular panalist on W$W, Elaine Garzarelli.
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| 1017.5 | re -.1 | SHOGUN::JAMBU_S | Skating away on the thin ice of a new day | Sat Jul 13 1996 17:58 | 11 |
| >> I've seen a ton of analysts over the last couple months who
>> keep saying to buy tech stocks. In that time they've gone down
>> further and futher :-(
Yeah How true...
>> The guest market monitor that is scheduled for tonight on NBR
>> is a regular panalist on W$W, Elaine Garzarelli.
You were right Jeff, she seemed pretty upbeat though???
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| 1017.6 | | RAGE::JC | You name it, I do it | Sun Jul 14 1996 21:32 | 6 |
| I personally think we're close to a bottom on Techs.
they've fallen quite a lot; most of the surprises are out,
the qtr reporting is about to begin. somewhere between now
and early aug will be the bottom, then they'll drift upward....
fwiw
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| 1017.7 | | CSCMA::BALICH | | Mon Jul 15 1996 17:30 | 7 |
|
From the market peak of a couple of months ago to today (-161) .. this
market correction is worse than the '87 crash ... only differnce is
the market today is spiraling downward in spurts, unlike in '87 when it
took place in 1 day.
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| 1017.8 | huh? | WRLDYD::MENARD | Life, Liberty, and the Purfuit of Happineff | Mon Jul 15 1996 18:19 | 13 |
| > From the market peak of a couple of months ago to today (-161) .. this
> market correction is worse than the '87 crash ... only differnce is
> the market today is spiraling downward in spurts, unlike in '87 when it
> took place in 1 day.
Wasn't the '87 crash something like a 40% decline?
If the Dow closes ~5350, it's still less than a 10% decline,
and I don't think the NASDAQ is down 20% yet.
Dave
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| 1017.9 | | RAGE::JC | You name it, I do it | Mon Jul 15 1996 18:23 | 8 |
| > If the Dow closes ~5350, it's still less than a 10% decline,
> and I don't think the NASDAQ is down 20% yet.
i bet by the end of today it'll be pretty close! probably another
3-4% lopped off today, which will make it down about 15% since June 5th's
high.
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| 1017.10 | | STAR::MKIMMEL | | Mon Jul 15 1996 18:41 | 2 |
| ...and Intel reports tomorrow - after the close I think. Let's just
suppose that they disappoint - could just see that 20%.
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| 1017.11 | correction, not a crash | 2155::michaud | Jeff Michaud - ObjectBroker | Mon Jul 15 1996 18:53 | 15 |
| > From the market peak of a couple of months ago to today (-161) .. this
> market correction is worse than the '87 crash ...
From a technical standpoint most say '87 was not a crash, but
a correction, if you look at the trend line (the Oct '87
correction didn't fall below the bottom trend line).
> only differnce is
> the market today is spiraling downward in spurts, unlike in '87 when it
> took place in 1 day.
The big difference between Oct. '87 and today is that today
the NYSE has what they call "circuit breakers" which curtails
"program trading" when the market moves too fast in either (usually
down :-) direction.....
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| 1017.12 | DOW -100, S&P limit down as I write | EVMS::HALLYB | Fish have no concept of fire | Tue Jul 16 1996 13:53 | 17 |
| .7> market correction is worse than the '87 crash ... only differnce is
.7> the market today is spiraling downward in spurts, unlike in '87 when it
.7> took place in 1 day.
I still have the data. Believe me, the '87 crash looked a lot like
the current sell-off. The market headed downwards into September
and October and was off a total of 500 points on the 18th. The 19th
saw the one-day 508-point drop, but that was only half of the total
decline.
Circuit breakers seem to be doing a good job of preventing runaway
free-falls. So far. Also so far, the current drop looks like a minor
blip when viewed on the weekly charts. Which means either it's a
healthy correction, or we've got a lot more to go on the downside.
(I think we've almost hit bottom).
John
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| 1017.13 | Looking for more info or ray of hope | UNXA::ZASLAW | | Tue Jul 16 1996 15:26 | 8 |
| > (I think we've almost hit bottom).
Hope you're right, but why do you think so? Does anyone know what the phone
hotlines (or web pages?) are saying for market timers with good track records?
Is it time to switch our 401(k) portfolios into the fixed income fund? (How
fast are such switches processed, anyone know?).
--Nervous
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| 1017.14 | | 2155::michaud | Jeff Michaud - ObjectBroker | Tue Jul 16 1996 16:07 | 19 |
| >> (I think we've almost hit bottom).
> Hope you're right, but why do you think so? Does anyone know what the phone
> hotlines (or web pages?) are saying for market timers with good track records?
FWIW, at half past noon I was watching CNN (wanted to see the picture
of OJ wearing the Bruno Malli's) and a market update had an analyst
feeling the sell-off will continue into Wed or Thursday and Friday
it will level off.
> Is it time to switch our 401(k) portfolios into the fixed income fund? (How
> fast are such switches processed, anyone know?).
Just like most mutual funds, if you call before the market close
(4pm) you get the NAV that will be computed for that trading day
(and if you call after 4pm, you get the next trading days closing
NAV).
Also remember you only can do one reallocation in SAVE per
calendar month ....
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| 1017.15 | | RAGE::JC | Never trust a Prankster | Tue Jul 16 1996 17:59 | 6 |
| Don't be nervous, get psyched.
Psyched to buy at bargain-basement prices.
i'd also say a low is any day now. most of the bad
news is out, q2 is accounted for, time to move fwd to q3
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| 1017.16 | Opportunities are there.... | SMURF::STRANGE | Steve Strange, UNIX Filesystems | Wed Jul 17 1996 10:51 | 5 |
| Intel announced better-than-expected earnings yesterday, and they're up
over 5% this morning (74). Hopefully that will give others a boost...
Knew I should have bought into INTC at 66 yesterday around lunchtime.
Steve
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| 1017.17 | | RAGE::JC | Never trust a Prankster | Wed Jul 17 1996 10:53 | 4 |
| I think we saw the bottom of techs yesturday, oh, around 14:00...
up from here.
INTC positive results.
looks like MSFT will also report positive results (anyone know when? today?)
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| 1017.18 | INTC @ 66 (64) was an Intraday fluke (FWIW) | 2155::michaud | Jeff Michaud - ObjectBroker | Wed Jul 17 1996 11:22 | 5 |
| > Knew I should have bought into INTC at 66 yesterday around lunchtime.
BTW, CNN Moneyline reported that that drop in INTC yesterday
(it dropped as far as to 64 1/8) was due to a *false* "rumor"
that the cmopany would *delay* their earnings report.
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| 1017.19 | | STAR::MKIMMEL | | Wed Jul 17 1996 17:03 | 6 |
| I believe MSFT reports on Monday.
I'd watch this very carefully now. What we are seeing today could very
well be a sucker's rally. Lots of professional money would no doubt
like to make a few quick bucks right around now.
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| 1017.20 | Don't be a Market Timer | NCMAIL::YANUSC | | Wed Jul 17 1996 20:29 | 21 |
| I haven't posted in this notes conference for awhile - been busy with
customers and the like, but found some time while out of town in the
hotel.
Let's face it, no matter how good we may think we are, we are still
small players. Don't get into timing the market; if you do you'll only
make money for your broker. Money Magazine and others have factored in
the most important runups in market value over long periods of time.
If you were out of the market (in other words, weren't right on in your
market timing, but who really is?) during very, very short periods of
time, you missed out on large runups in the market. The bottom line is
that most market runups tend to be compressed into short time periods.
Miss those periods and you've missed out on a substantial portion of
the overall increase in market valuation.
If you have a longer term horizon, and anyone still in their working
years should, keep to a good mix in your overall portfolio, and stick
to your guns. PT Barnum would have loved to be a broker to individuals
who thought they were market timers.
Chuck
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| 1017.21 | Those who fail to learn ... | EVMS::HALLYB | Fish have no concept of fire | Thu Jul 18 1996 09:14 | 21 |
| > small players. Don't get into timing the market; if you do you'll only
> make money for your broker.
On the other hand if you have unlimited free mutual fund switching,
this does not apply.
> Money Magazine and others have factored in
> the most important runups in market value over long periods of time.
These kinds of studies always show up when the market is overvalued.
Where was Money Magazine in 1974, when the market as really cheap?
Where will they be at the next market bottom?
As early as 1912, and probably long before then, a sharp broker noted
that at market tops all his clients were "long-term investors". And at
market bottoms, when the market is a screaming buy, all his clients
were short-term traders moving in and out of the market.
I don't know about you, but I'm going to bet history repeats itself.
John
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| 1017.23 | | SLOAN::HOM | | Fri Jul 19 1996 14:56 | 21 |
| The number of comments that I've regarding holding for the "long
term", "can't lose", etc... is getting scary as John H. says.
Long term equity investors should not be surprised if future long term
returns are meager.
Some historical perspective:
Over the ten year period from '65-'74, the SP500 returned
an average of 1.2%. From '66-'75 it was 3.3%.
But what about a twenty year period? From '59-'78, the
average return was 6.5%.
But this time is different.
Gim
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| 1017.24 | | PADC::KOLLING | Karen | Fri Jul 19 1996 16:42 | 4 |
| Re: .23 But this time is different.
Say more :-)
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| 1017.25 | Perhaps you too detect a note of irony? | UNXA::ZASLAW | | Fri Jul 19 1996 18:06 | 7 |
| > Re: .23 But this time is different.
>
> Say more :-)
Perhaps he is referring to the fact that history often DOES repeat itself
despite the assurances to the contrary heard from investment Pollyannas.
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| 1017.26 | Standing up for Money Magazine | NCMAIL::YANUSC | | Fri Jul 26 1996 11:27 | 22 |
| John (re: .21)
Sorry about the lateness of the reply to your reply to my note in .20 -
been on the road with little time for Notes. In fairness to Money
Magazine, which I do enjoy, two years or so ago they trumpeted "Buy
Stocks" in bold letters on their cover. This was when sentiment was
still bearish, and in hindsight we were near a market bottom. They
were right on. Also, for some time Michael Sivy, a very savvy
editor/writer of theirs', has been forwarning month by month by month
to go cautious with the market. He has been saying specifically,
starting last year, that 1996 would have a 15-20% correction. He even
went so far as to not tell people to get out early (i.e. pre-1996), but
be aware that the correction would come in 1996.
While they might have missed other historical bottoms such as 1974
(although I wasn't reading it then so I cannot confirm or refute this
point), I feel they have very honest with their readers over time.
That is the main reason I enjoy their issues. But as with any
investment, read the prospectus carefully before investing any money!
Chuck
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