| T.R | Title | User | Personal
Name | Date | Lines |
|---|
| 898.1 | | NETRIX::michaud | Jeff Michaud, That Group | Fri Jul 28 1995 13:48 | 15 |
| > Did you see the story on Leptin the other night. Amgen is about to
> begin human trials on an anti-obesity drug.
I saw the story on NBR and CNN 2 days ago. From what I heard
human trials are *NOT* about to begin. They've only finished
experiments with mice, and monkeys would be next. Human experiments
wouldn't be til after that at the earliest. One of the experimentors
also said that in mice it's a single hormone for this fat fighting
hormone, but in humans it may be many more as yet un-identified
hormones.
I find it crazy the stock shot up that day and yesterday, given
that even if this single hormone does work on humans, and it's
approved by the FDA, that it wouldn't start making money for
Amgen for many years!
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| 898.2 | Still could be big $$$ ahead | ASDG::WATSON | Discover America | Sat Jul 29 1995 10:09 | 12 |
| Yes, a hormone. I did not catch the full story the other night. But
they have said on every report I have heard that it would be ready as
soon as 2000. I assumed human trials to have to be started soon.
In any case, this could be a big money maker. As a hormone, you must
continue to use the product, like insulin, for your entire lifetime.
Amgen gets what, about 17 years, of single source profits. Or is that
different for drugs?
If successful, Amgen stock is a steal. If, like many 1980's bio-farce
products and companies, it's a dud...atleast Amgen has some real
product lines aready unlike many one drug companies of the past.
|
| 898.3 | | NETRIX::michaud | Jeff Michaud, That Group | Mon Jul 31 1995 00:46 | 16 |
| > If successful, Amgen stock is a steal.
But is the recent buying spree logical given it's usefullness in
humans is highly speculative and that even if it does eventually
prove applicable to humans, that it won't translate into revenue
for at least 5 years?
Within the next five years Amgen could get sued royally for
one of it's current products, or cures and/or alternative
treatments could be founds by other companies for Amgen's
current top revenue generators, etc etc.
I personally I feel the only real money to be made on the
research findings that was released on the mice is by those
who bought at the pre-buying spree prices and have now sold
(ie. I see this as a blowout once people regain their senses :-)
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| 898.4 | | SSAG::SUSSWEIN | an adrenal gland is a terrible thing to waste | Mon Jul 31 1995 12:52 | 23 |
| RE: -.1
>>> I personally I feel the only real money to be made on the
>>> research findings that was released on the mice is by those
>>> who bought at the pre-buying spree prices and have now sold
>>> (ie. I see this as a blowout once people regain their senses :-)
I've been thinking about this a bit, and was wondering whether there
might be some short sell opportunities here. My thinking goes something
like this:
Lots of people who hear about this are going to believe (rightly or
not) that in a year they'll just be able to just take a pill to lose
weight, so why should they they go through the pain of dieting and
exercise now? I'd expect diet centers (Jenny Craig) and fitness
centers (Bally's) to see a sharp downturn in sales because of this
announcement. Might be some money to be made selling short in these
kind of companies.
Thoughts?
Steve
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| 898.5 | Rather see some profits first... | LACV01::CORSON | Higher, and a bit more to the right | Mon Jul 31 1995 15:01 | 7 |
|
My thoughts are buying *anything* five years out is about as
intelligent as purchasing a 286 PC for your kids "to play on".
But as Forrest Gump so aptly put it "Stupid is as stupid does".
the Greyhawk
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| 898.6 | Maybe, maybe not. | WMGEN1::abs003p2.nqo.dec.com::SteveS | Hakuna Matata? | Tue Aug 01 1995 10:22 | 11 |
| As the author of .11, my $.02
This product may/may not ever come to market, like every other drug
undergoing pre/clinical trials. IF it does come to market, and IF it
works well, it should be a huge product. Best guess would be IF it
comes to market ~ 2000, Amgem would have ~10 years of exclusivity before the
patent expires and generics (Mylan! :-) could compete. Patent life is from
the day of application (or issueance?) for 17 years.
If it DOESN'T come to market, Amgen (IMHO) is STILL a great company
(especially bought ~6 months ago or so at 31).
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| 898.7 | | NETRIX::michaud | Jeff Michaud, That Group | Tue Aug 01 1995 10:55 | 21 |
| > This product may/may not ever come to market, like every other drug
> undergoing pre/clinical trials.
At this point in time it is not even undergoing pre/clinical trials.
From what I understand, they are still at the "research" stage
(it wasn't even Amgen doing the research, it sounded like they
funded some University research).
As the original reports said, they don't even know if this single
hormone that works in mice will even work in humans (or any other
large animal). One of the researchers (I could be wrong that
it was one of the researchers FWIW) indicated that it's more likely
that in humans there is more than one hormone involved (the others
yet to be discovered if he's correct).
Also I've seen another news report that about only 20-30% of the
overweight people are that way genetically or such that the hormone
treatment could help. The rest are overweight by environment.
Whatever happened to that "fat cream" they discovered a couple of
years ago that you rub on your tighs and lose weight?
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