Conference nyoss1::market_investing

    The sixty year cycles make sense, but I'm curious to know what 500-year
    cycles Davidson has observed.

    I am a lifetime subscriber to Strategic Investment, have been for 
    10 years now, and have virtually every issue ever published. I find the
    newsletter fascinating reading even without the stock and futures picks.
    
    Davidson predicted the fall in oil in late '85-'86, when it dropped
    from the $30 area to the $15 area. He WAS a few months early, so it
    wasn't the sort of quick profit we all dream about.
    
    In 1986 he predicted the fall of Communism, citing Gorbachev as a true
    reformer, NOT another old guard boss-man. This was when the US Liberals
    were still trying to ram through their various placate-the-Soviets
    schemes. No, he didn't say WHEN, only that it was a certainty under
    Gorbachev. (Hey, *I* think that's a pretty good call). The rationale
    is well described in Chapter 5 "The Twilight of Communism" of his
    book _Blood in the Streets_. Published early 1987, this book also
    forecast a market crash and major economic depression. (Half credit.)
    
    In 1991 after the Gulf War victory, with George Bush'es favorability
    ratings wayyyy up there, as high as 91%, Davidson not only predicted
    Bush would lose in the 1992 elections, he even GAVE 4-1 odds to a
    skeptic -- $10,000 to $2,500 -- to underscore how confident he was.
    Reason? Bush giving in on taxes would lead to an election-year recession.
    
    He feels that Clinton will also be a one-termer and indeed one of the
    SI contributing editors thinks Clinton will be out of office this year!
    
    In addition to _Blood in the Streets_ he has written a more recent book 
    _The Great Reckoning_ where he discusses the post-Communist world and
    continues to forecast a major economic downturn, caused by government
    spending to extreme. In a recent newsletter he points out that government
    today has become a major intrusive force in everyone's life, just as
    religion did 500 years ago. In both cases the hardworking productive
    members of society are/were shackled by parasitic taxes and regulations
    designed according to ideals that ignore the economic impact of laws.
    
    Naturally he sees the low-tax, low-regulation booming economies of the
    Far East as the place where fortunes will be made in coming generations.
    America and Western Europe will not be able to compete as long as taxes
    stay high and thereby reduce the level of wealth compounding possible.
    
    He's a literate writer, an eloquent speaker and a perceptive thinker.
    He has had a superb intermediate-term forecasting record. But he's not
    the kind of guy to pick a stock that's going to skyrocket the day after
    you buy it. But his track record is one good reason to read his theories 
    before you make major lifestyle decisions.
    
      John

 Thank you John,

  He sounded pretty accurate and convincing to me, however I am not
informed enough to properly judge.

 So, in a nutshell, he says that the western economies are going down for the 
count and bankrupt while the eastern economies are going to boom.


>    In a recent newsletter he points out that government
>    today has become a major intrusive force in everyone's life, just as
>    religion did 500 years ago. In both cases the hardworking productive
>    members of society are/were shackled by parasitic taxes and regulations
>    designed according to ideals that ignore the economic impact of laws.

 What an excellent way to put government controls into perspective!

  Thanks, I will subscribe to his newsletter!



    Dave

    Please offer the 800 # or an address to subsribe.

>    He feels that Clinton will also be a one-termer and indeed one of the
>    SI contributing editors thinks Clinton will be out of office this year!
 
    That would be pretty extraordinary. How does he think this will happen?
    Impeachment? Assasination? Whatever you may say about Bill (and who
    doesn't?), you have to admire his determination. Look how he stuck by
    his guns on NAFTA, in the face of strong opposition from his own party.
       
>    Naturally he sees the low-tax, low-regulation booming economies of the
>    Far East as the place where fortunes will be made in coming generations.
>    America and Western Europe will not be able to compete as long as taxes
>    stay high and thereby reduce the level of wealth compounding possible.
    
    Yes, take that famous low-regulation economy in China. One can achieve
    admirable reduction in labor costs through the use of forced labor
    camps (there is a well-trenched system of them, 1000 documented so
    far), child labor, and 15 hour work days. And one can count on a
    continued low level of those bothersome worker safety and environmental
    regulations just by judicious repetition of Tianamin (sp) Square. I'll
    take our system, with its drawbacks. Remember that many of those
    regulations also limit government's power over *you*.

>    Yes, take that famous low-regulation economy in China. One can achieve
>    admirable reduction in labor costs through the use of forced labor
>    camps (there is a well-trenched system of them, 1000 documented so
>    far), child labor, and 15 hour work days. And one can count on a
>    continued low level of those bothersome worker safety and environmental
>    regulations just by judicious repetition of Tianamin (sp) Square. I'll
>    take our system, with its drawbacks. Remember that many of those
>    regulations also limit government's power over *you*.


  I don't want to get into a heated discussion on this, but I will say that
  with regard to human rights, working conditions and such, the way that
  China's MFN status was continued demonstated that this government and
  all of the other ones are ALL talk and NO ACTION when it comes to MONEY.



re: How to order.

   They give an address:

     	Strategic Investment
	824 East Baltimore St.
	Baltimore, MD 21202


    and a FAX #

 	(410)539-7348

    Dave

RATHOLE ON   :)

>  I don't want to get into a heated discussion on this, but I will say that
>  with regard to human rights, working conditions and such, the way that
>  China's MFN status was continued demonstated that this government and
>  all of the other ones are ALL talk and NO ACTION when it comes to MONEY.

I disagree.  Money (i.e. the economy) is important to the U.S. government,
as it should be, but I believe the implication that the government
abandons moral leadership whenever money is involved is not accurate -
and in particular that this decision is not good evidence of that.
(Sure, there have also been plenty of other examples to support your statement)

Regarding MFN for China -

*Our government's first (moral) responsibility is to its own citizens - the 
 economic loss to the U.S. from not renewing MFN was clear

*Dictating to other countries often just hardens the resistance to our 
 preferred outcome.

*Failure to renew MFN would have simply driven the Chinese to U.S. business
 competitors (Autobus instead of Boeing, Komatsu instead of Caterpillar)

*And the key argument...reducing trade between our two nations reduces our
 political clout in the area...and *reduces* the chance of human rights
 improvements in China over the long-term.  This was Bush's argument.
 Most people who have been to China, as I have, can see that opening up
 the country to free enterprise (and the trading contact that goes with it)
 is exactly what will empower (and educate) the average Chinese citizen and
 ultimately doom the Chinese dictatorship.
 (Even a Democratic President can figure that out when he/she takes time off
  from demagoging to thoughtfully study the issue)  :)
  Sorry, probably shouldn't have added that last statement, but couldn't resist.

RATHOLE OFF?  (probably not)

    Please, folks, let's keep the discussion to the basenote topic.
    
    If someone wants to start a basenote on China trade policy and how that
    ties in with investing, go right ahead. Maybe there are Chinese prisons
    that plan to go public; if so the employee stock purchase plan might be
    something worth discussing. But not in this note.
     
      John (Moderator)

RE: .6 and how to order

>  They give an address:
>
>    	Strategic Investment
>	824 East Baltimore St.
>	Baltimore, MD 21202
>
>
>   and a FAX #
>
>	(410)539-7348

How much is it?  Or is this a case of if I have to ask I can't
afford it?

Telephone number for humans:

   410-234-0691

Person who took my call told me a bit about
the newsletter and offered to send me a sample copy.
Very nice.  Forgot to ask price.

-Jerry

    The "retail" price is $109 per year (12 issues). As with most
    newsletters, chances are you can get a "special" lower price.
    I would bet Jerry in .-1 gets a flyer offering a lower price if
    he subscribes "soon".
    
      John