Conference nyoss1::market_investing

>    ps.. Digital was a great short term buy earlier today.  I expect a 25%
>    move during the next 60 days from today's low.
    
    In what direction?

JUL 30 calls had traded from 1 15/16 - 2 15/16 yesturday!
that's a pretty good range for an option, i think.  is
this typical?

    
    All depends, of course, on the high and low for DEC yesterday, but
    that range doesn't seem unreasonable.

    Although it seems like the trend has probably broken to the down side
    for some time to come, there are some good opportunities.  A couple
    that I am watching:
    
    Adobe Systems (NASDAQ: ADBE) is well below its' highs, trading around
    24.  I will look at this if it gets to the low 20's say (20-22).  With
    the acquisition of Aldus and a stronger economy, this major supplier of
    laser printer fonts will be a good hold.
    
    On the more conservative side, I like SCE (Southern Cal. Edison), with
    a yield of close to 8.6%, this major utitility stock has a good
    reputation of innovation and some possibilities of move in the
    international markets.  One drawback is that there is a rumor that SCE
    might cut their divididents.  I dont think that's the case though as
    they are have plenty of cash.
    
    On the more speculative side, I like the generic drug maker Mylan Labs
    (NYSE: MYL) currently trading around $17.  I think any major health
    plan will benefit the generic drug makers and Mylan is a large one in
    this group.  The stock is well over 50% below its' high and might see a
    nice rebound from here.  There is also a possibility of a
    merger/takeover by a major drug company as the health industry is
    consolidating in view of the healthcare reform.
    
    Again, these are some stocks I am watching.  I have not invested in any
    of them yet.  All usual disclaimers apply. 

    re .0  Any good revalued picks?
    MediaVision has to be mentioned here... down to 8 and change Wed.
    They said they're going to lose money this quarter, and they've been
    absolutely pummeled.  Thursday they did dead cat bounce back a point.
    kb
    
    Along these same lines, are there any good overvalued picks?
    I would think anybody deriving a large portion of income from
    mortgage refinancing is in for some real hard times (long bond popped
    up another quarter % this morning, 7.00 -> 7.25% on the rotten
    (or great, depending...) unemployement news).  What would be the
    best way to play this?  (FannieMae/FredieMac/banks/others?)  

GUNDLE (AMER:GUN) is down to the mid-6's now.  About 3-4 months ago, it was
around 9 and change.  When it reported its earnings, it dropped 3 pts...

Acclaim Entertainment (AKLM) : is down to 15, from 25 about
two weeks ago..

    Woolworth, in spite of its recent troubles might be worth looking at. I
    would wait for about 6-8 week for the accounting irregularities to play
    it self out. Their  current divident is $1.16 (ticker Z on NYSE)

    Look into IVX folks.  This stock is fundamentally sound since it makes
    money every quarter, quarter after quarter.  Recently it got hit
    because Zenith Labs is going to market one of the drugs that IVX has
    been making tons of money on for the lst 3 years - Verapamil.  
    
    FDA has it's pipeline of drugs for approval.  I have been following the
    stock and buying on dips since I really think that this one is a I.Term
    winner i.e 12-24 months.  Clinton cannot touch such "moneysavers".  IVX
    only makes drugs that usually NOONE in their right mind would want to
    think of duplicating - MYL usually does not compete with them.  
    
    So, look first, reseach next and then TAKE THE LEAP - As always never
    take a hot tip from anyone 'cause as soon as you touch it - IT WILL BE
    COLD.......
    
    Good Luck and Good Trading in the 1990's.
    
    Ken

    Re MYL...
    
    Since I've had SUCH success in this sector (Bolar/Circa ;-( in the
    past, I'll keep at it.
    
    I think/hope Mylan will come out a big winner whichever way the wind
    blows in healthcare. They have a reasonable PE, a very strong pipeline
    of ANDAs, and would make a strong takeover candidate for takeover IMHO.
    I went in on a few 100 shares recently at 16 3/8...we'll see.
    
    FWIW, a client of mine invested the same amount in Cisco...with a
    friendly wager that the loser in the market would also be a loser over
    lunch.

    
    re .-1
    
    Actually Circa (aka Bolar) is doing much better these days.  I wouldn't
    be surprised if it hits 20 by years end.  Been going up rapidly the
    last few days.

    RE .9
    
    What is with IVX today?  Last I checked it was trading around $17.50
    (down > $6).  Was there a bad financial report?

    I got the answer.  As usual IVX reported their Quarterly results
    (.25/share) vs >.30 estimates and there goes the stock.  I think it
    closed at 17.375.  Is it now a good SPECULATIVE buy?

    What company is IVX? I can't find it listed in the paper, since the
    local paper doesn't give ticker symbols.

    The explanation I heard on IVX was that they're a generic drug company
    that came under pricing pressure from, you guessed it, other generic
    drug companies.  kb

    Yes, since I mentioned IVX, it has gone down due to a bad earnings
    report.  While there is now competition on Verapamil, it is still a
    $200M per year annual sale.  On the brighter side Elmiron could be
    approved any time - potentially a $80m-$100 per year drug for IVX. It
    has such a HUGE PIPELINE of VERY DIFFICULT TO DUPLICATE DRUGS, that I
    am going to be a buyer of this one, NO MATTER WHAT.  
    
    It is continuing to acquire companies - for eg McGaw acquisition of an
    unrelated business!.  
    
    This stock has a lot of potential left in it yet.  It ONLY DUPLICATES
    WHAT MOST OTHER MANUFACTURERS DOES NOT WANT TO TOUCH. 
    
    Good Luck and Good Investing.  
    
    Ken

    I've been waiting for PROMIS to correct (and it's gone up 4-5- points).
    What do you folks think of it long term ?
    Earnings,growth rate have been great. Is it already in the stock ?
    

    
    
    How about Digital ???  Been moving up lately.
    
    So far today ...
    
    DEC 23 1/4, change +1; DJIA 3740.56, change +7.67 at 12:15.
    
    I think NOW is the time to BUY, when the stock is out of favor!
    You want to buy when nobody else does.  DEC is definitely a speculative
    stock though.     WS likes changes and DEC appears to be agressively
    making changes to CUT costs.

    
    
    How about KMART or WOOLWORTH ?
    
    Both give great dividends and are selling at yearly LOWS.
    However both are surprising WS, but unfortunatly on the NEGATIVE side!
    
    Do any of these look like 'comeback stocks' ?
    
    Do you think they will CUT their dividends ?
    

    Re: -1
    
    �How about KMART or WOOLWORTH ?
    
    I would prefer Woolworth (NYSE:Z) between the two. Looks like most of
    the bad news is out. There was some speculation prior to the last board
    meeting that the dividend may  be cut, but that didn't happen. So I
    think it is safe. I have been following it for a while now, might buy
    when the price gets a little stable (it dropped almost 2 yes'day due to
    restating of losses).
    
    K-mart is going to issue more shares (diluation) and spend the money on
    refurbishing its stores.

The retailing business is growing at about 5-8% per
year. If Walmart is growing at 20% (and indeed they are)
who's going to loose?

What plans and strategies are Kmart and Woolworth putting
in place to counter Walmart?

Gim

Note that Walmart is also at or near a 52-week low.

K-mart is moving out smartly on its new SuperK stores. SuperK's are 5 acres
under roof with food (Safeway/Kroger like) and specialty shops targeted at
on-stop shopping. You can drop your car off too have tires put on, get a hair
cut, stop at the bank, pick up some pork & beans and a new pair of jeans and
never leave the building.  Those built to date have higher sales per sq ft 
than the standard Kmarts thus Kmart Corp. interests in building more and 
expanding/remodeling old stores. However this expansion takes cash which may 
hurt in the short term.

    Re: .24, Super Stores
    
    Kmart's current problems is because it can't operate efficently.
    In fact since it's current CEO Antonini took over in 1987, the 
    stock has dropped about 25%. Meanwhile, Walmart stock has tripled -
    though as .23 points it, it is near a 52 week low.
    
    Would just opening super stores turn the company around? Walmart  by
    the way, will be opening 40 supercenter stores this year and  Walmart
    stores have a 3-4% gross margin advantage over Kmart in store sales. 
    
    Anyone in the MA/NH area can visit Kmarts and Walmarts. After 10
    minutes in the stores, the reasons for Walmart's efficiency becomes
    apparent. 
    
    	Gim

> Anyone in the MA/NH area can visit Kmarts and Walmarts. After 10
> minutes in the stores, the reasons for Walmart's efficiency becomes
> apparent. 

	Please elaborate for those of us who have visited both Kmart
	and Wallmart (in the Nashua, NH area) and still don't know
	what you refer to as apparent :-)

    Re -1:
    
    When the new KMart opened in Tweksbury a year or so ago I went there to
    see if the "new KMart" was any better then the "old" one in Billerica.
    As a stock buyer, I always look at a business from the angle ... 
    'Would I want to buy stock in this company'. I had always noticed in
    the Billerica store that their product line was like an old general
    store. How many times have you been shopping and felt an impulse to
    buy Spic and Span or dental floss? I'm not kidding: look at how much
    space they devote to common household items. If I need this stuff I 
    usually get it while grocery shopping. With the amount of money per
    sq. ft that they must spend for their footprint, they need a much
    better product line.  
    
    I think Kmart's layout is fine for the general store of 100 years ago,
    but not in the era of the mall. 
    
    Wal-mart has a lot of the same items : TV's , clothing, but they don't
    try to have everything I MIGHT need in the next 180 days - only 
    what's profitable and what they're competitive at. Products that they
    can get high turns on: maybe only make .05 but sell tons of them.
    
    As for the main comparison between them:
    Walk through the KMart at the intersection of Rt 38 + Rt 495 and
    then try a Wal-Mart. At Kmart at 6pm I was one of 8-10 customers in the
    store. At any Wal-Mart , I'm usually one of 100 or so people . 
    At the Wal-Mart, people are cheerful/helpful. At KMart, they're 
    confused/complaining.
    
    Needless to say, I didn't buy any KMart stock
     

    
    Several possible ideas.  I have been accumulating some DEC stock;
    however, the most recent rise can be attributed to the fact that the
    May buy is coming up and it would be grand larceny to buy at $15.
    
    Another idea I have had recently and would appreciate feedback on is
    MAXTOR.  With the burdgoning server business it seems that disk drives
    will be in high demand.  Also, our own disk business is doing so well
    we just raised prices at the end of Q3.
    
    What do ya think?
    
    Rgds....

    Well, MYL worked out OK (so far!, bought at 16 3/8, trading at ~21) any
    comments about CompUSA? Too-rapid-to-maintain expansion plans impacted
    both forecasted revenues and margins (as new stores came on-line) but I
    think they know what they're doing. Ex-retail (dept stores execs),
    great products (where I spend TOO much of my market_investing profits
    :-), and now trading at a reasonable PE at a 52 week low.
    
    Whaddya think???

re       <<< Note 710.29 by PARVAX::SCHUSTAK "Join the AlphaGeneration!" >>>
                            -< CompUSA (NYSE: CPU) >-

the WSJ just had a bit saying they might report a loss in the upcoming
quarter.  stock hit a new low yesturday: 9 and change.

    To be truthful, I did expect a "dead cat bounce" yesterday (when it
    dropped the day before from 12ish to 9 and change).  Alas it was only
    up 1/2, which sort of indicates to me that it's not going back up
    anytime soon.

    
    Some new ideas.  LOTUS (LOTS) down significantly due to lower than
    expected quarterly earnings.  Buying Softswitch which should position
    well in the LAN/WAN communications market.
    
    COMPAC (CPQ) currently 32 and change looks good at 30 by early next
    week.