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| Title: | Market Investing |
|
| Moderator: | 2155::michaud |
|
| Created: | Thu Jan 23 1992 |
| Last Modified: | Thu Jun 05 1997 |
| Last Successful Update: | Fri Jun 06 1997 |
| Number of topics: | 1060 |
| Total number of notes: | 10477 |
648.0. "Updated Donohue Signal #'s" by CPDW::ROSCH () Wed Dec 22 1993 21:53
[from a source on the net]
Sorry for the delay in getting back to you, but I was
out of town for a bit.
For what it's worth, the Donoghue signal has switched to a
"sell" the past few weeks for the first time since I have
been following it (going on two years). I've appended a
chart of the data that Donoghue follows.
Personally, though, I think Donoghue's method is a little
simplistic, and I am more inclined to make my own investing
decisions based on the results of Marty Zweig's model from
the book "Winning on Wall Street." Zweig's model follows
a variety of indicators including prime rate; discount rate
and reserve requirement; consumer installment debt; and
trends in the Value Line Composite Index (a broad index of
stocks across the market). The model is currently at an 8
out of a possible 10, which would still be fairly bullish.
However, consumer installment debt (the ratio of the most
recent month available divided by the level a year previous)
is trending upward, and may give what Zweig considers a
bearish signal by sometime in spring. If the Fed increases
the discount rate and/or the prime rate goes up, and if the
Value Line index (i.e. the stock market) begins to fall,
all of the above taken together would constitute what Zweig
considers a clear sell signal. So -- I'm not cashing out
yet, but imagine the magic moment might come sometime in the
spring. (Naturally the above is not investment advice; I'm
just relating my own thought processes.)
Frank
Donoghue signal data:
Date Matur Return Average Signal
2/25/92 57 3.78 3.78 buy
3/3/92 57 3.75 3.77775 buy
3/10/92 57 3.72 3.773419 buy
3/17/92 56 3.72 3.769413 buy
3/24/92 55 3.73 3.766457 buy
3/31/92 56 3.73 3.763722 buy
4/7/92 56 3.74 3.761943 buy
4/14/92 57 3.66 3.754298 buy
4/21/92 58 3.62 3.744226 buy
4/28/92 59 3.59 3.732659 buy
5/5/92 60 3.55 3.718959 buy
5/12/92 61 3.51 3.703287 buy
5/19/92 62 3.51 3.688791 buy
5/26/92 61 3.47 3.672382 buy
6/2/92 62 3.49 3.658703 buy
6/9/92 61 3.45 3.64305 buy
6/16/92 61 3.44 3.627822 buy
6/23/92 61 3.42 3.612235 buy
6/30/92 62 3.44 3.599318 buy
7/7/92 62 3.35 3.580619 buy
7/14/92 63 3.24 3.555073 buy
7/21/92 62 3.19 3.527692 buy
7/28/92 62 3.14 3.498615 buy
8/4/92 64 3.11 3.469469 buy
8/11/92 64 3.08 3.440259 buy
8/18/92 64 3.05 3.41099 buy
8/25/92 63 3.03 3.382415 buy
9/1/92 64 3.01 3.354484 buy
9/8/92 63 2.96 3.324898 buy
9/15/92 64 2.9 3.293031 buy
9/22/92 63 2.88 3.262053 buy
9/29/92 65 2.87 3.232649 buy
10/6/92 65 2.83 3.202451 buy
10/13/92 65 2.77 3.170017 buy
10/20/92 64 2.79 3.141516 buy
10/27/92 65 2.74 3.111402 buy
11/3/92 66 2.75 3.084297 buy
11/10/92 65 2.74 3.058475 buy
11/17/92 63 2.74 3.034589 buy
11/24/92 63 2.74 3.012495 buy
12/1/92 62 2.75 2.992808 buy
12/8/92 60 2.79 2.977597 buy
12/15/92 59 2.8 2.964278 buy
12/22/92 59 2.83 2.954207 buy
12/29/92 57 2.86 2.947141 buy
1/5/93 56 2.92 2.945106 buy
1/12/93 58 2.83 2.936473 buy
1/19/93 59 2.77 2.923987 buy
1/26/92 60 2.77 2.912438 buy
2/2/93 61 2.74 2.899505 buy
2/9/93 61 2.73 2.886792 buy
2/16/93 61 2.71 2.873533 buy
2/23/93 61 2.69 2.859768 buy
3/2/93 61 2.71 2.848536 buy
3/9/93 61 2.67 2.835145 buy
3/16/93 60 2.66 2.82201 buy
3/23/93 60 2.65 2.809109 buy
3/30/93 60 2.66 2.797926 buy
4/6/93 60 2.67 2.788332 buy
4/13/93 62 2.64 2.777207 buy
4/20/93 63 2.63 2.766166 buy
4/27/93 63 2.61 2.754454 buy
5/4/93 63 2.62 2.74437 buy
5/11/93 63 2.59 2.732792 buy
5/18/93 64 2.6 2.722833 buy
5/25/93 64 2.59 2.71287 buy
6/1/93 64 2.62 2.705905 buy
6/8/93 62 2.62 2.699462 buy
6/15/93 61 2.62 2.693503 buy
6/22/93 60 2.62 2.68799 buy
6/29/93 60 2.63 2.683641 buy
7/6/93 60 2.63 2.679618 buy
7/13/93 61 2.64 2.676646 buy
7/20/93 61 2.63 2.673148 buy
7/27/93 61 2.65 2.671412 buy
8/3/93 61 2.65 2.669806 buy
8/10/93 61 2.64 2.667571 buy
8/17/93 62 2.64 2.665503 buy
8/24/94 63 2.64 2.66359 buy
9/1/93 63 2.64 2.661821 buy
9/8/93 63 2.64 2.660184 buy
9/15/93 63 2.64 2.658671 buy
9/22/93 63 2.65 2.65802 buy
9/29/93 63 2.65 2.657419 buy
10/6/93 63 2.68 2.659113 sell
10/13/93 63 2.64 2.657679 buy
10/20/93 63 2.65 2.657103 buy
10/27/93 64 2.64 2.655821 buy
11/3/93 64 2.66 2.656134 sell
11/10/93 63 2.65 2.655674 buy
11/17/93 61 2.67 2.656749 sell
11/23/93 61 2.67 2.657743 sell
12/1/93 61 2.69 2.660162 sell
12/8/93 60 2.69 2.6624 sell
12/15/93 59 2.69 2.66447 sell
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