| T.R | Title | User | Personal
Name | Date | Lines |
|---|
| 643.1 | There is no Santa Claus | POBOX::LENOW | Your friendly Logistics Business Partner | Tue Dec 21 1993 11:47 | 35 |
| Let us look at the facts. The DOW is running ahead of the broad based
market indicators such as the S&P or the Wilshire. Utilities are down
and transports are not following the market. Bears are getting ready to
cash in? Look at Investors Intelligence and there is no sign that the
bears are ready to cash in.
What holds the market up? Excess cash at the mutuals...they are not
illiquid and cash is still coming in. Slow growth supports the market.
There are many opinions at this time and you could pick the ones you
believe. So what? What difference will it make to you? If you knew
could you make some money? Could you pick the losers?
In short, economists are people who depend on history to do their
regression analyses or their time series or their tea leaves. This is a
market that is much different from the past. We have slow growth,
little inflation and low interest rates and now cheap oil. How many
times have we seen that in the past?
The small investor has no other recourse than to do value investing. Do
a lot of research to find the winners and invest and hold them. If you
are in this computer business you may be able to identify the next MSFT or
CISCO. Look real closely at ROSS. Pick stocks with low big investor
interest, consistent profits, growing business, consistent EPS growth.
Ask yourself, would you buy this business?
If you cannot do the above for lack of tools or time then pick a good
mutual like Vanguard's Windsor Fund or Fidelity's Balanced Fund and
sleep well every night.
Yes Virginia, there is no Santa Claus.
Cordially,
Moish
|
| 643.2 | what is the story behind ross ? | STOWOA::FERNANDEZ | | Wed Dec 22 1993 11:26 | 5 |
| .1 - what is the story behing ROSS ?
Thanks in advance
luis
|
| 643.3 | what i know; anyone else? | ZENDIA::FERGUSON | Red X | Wed Dec 22 1993 13:36 | 16 |
| re <<< Note 643.2 by STOWOA::FERNANDEZ >>>
-< what is the story behind ross ? >-
> .1 - what is the story behing ROSS ?
i was looking into this company about 2 months ago. it was trading at 12
then. now it is around 7 or so. they do client-server software. they used
to concentrate mainly on the VMS platform, however, when the VAX started to
fall from grace, they fell too. now, i reckon, they are getting back on their
feet, moving away from the vms platform to other platforms, and this being
a client-server world, they have a chance at building up their business once
again.
i'm still taking a look - the stock seems to be at a bottom, right around
6.50 - 7.50 a share.
|
| 643.4 | More on Ross Systems | SMAUG::DANA | | Thu Dec 23 1993 10:06 | 21 |
|
Re .1 - ROSS
They have added support for HP platforms to some of their client
software, the rest is in progress. Between this new area of revenue
and the customers upgrading to Alpha, hopefully the tide will turn
in their favor. They are also adding Sybase support.
They are not, however, another Microsoft or Oracle. They sell
software that resides on minicomputer platforms, which is not exactly
the mass market!
If things go reasonably well, at a price of around $7 they will have
a quite reasonable p/e next year. Lower than most software companies
and much lower than its expected long-term growth rate. But it will
be a bumpy ride.
Do some research and decide if you want the bumpy ride, before
investing.
Dana
|
| 643.5 | Pick'em Carefully in '94 | ODIXIE::GELINEAU | | Mon Jan 03 1994 18:46 | 24 |
| Depending on what stocks, or what stock sectors you have been in for
the past 8 months, you might have already seen a correction. From all
indications, both my own and that of professional analysts, this market
has provided one of the better rotations in recent history. As a
result a lot of the big runups early in the year have already corrected
and now represent buying opportunities. Evidenced by the DOW at
records and the broader indicies somewhat below all time highs.
However, with that in mind, I believe the real answer lies in the most
recent quarters earnings reports which will begine in about 2 weeks.
Interest rates have bottomed, at least for the time being, and the
stock prices already relflect much of the recent good economic news.
The only questionalbe item is earnings and trends for many of the
market leading high priced stocks.
What does all this mean? Basically the chance of forecasting the
upcoming enevitable market correction of at least 10% is about as good
as winning the lottery. 1993 was a stock pickers year and I beleive
for the reasons mentioned 1994 will be as well. S&P 500 expected new
gain for 94, including a 4% dividend yeild is about 7%. So pick'em
carefully.
Rgds,
|
| 643.6 | | CPDW::ROSCH | | Fri Mar 11 1994 11:35 | 4 |
| FWIW -
Zweig on 3/10 pm used words like bearish, negative, down to describe
his 'models'. He's 39% long. His Bond model is at the bottom of his
moderately bearish range (talk about obfuscation!)
|
| 643.7 | | ZENDIA::FERGUSON | Red X | Mon Mar 28 1994 12:43 | 6 |
| So, the market appears to be heading down,down,down. off 37 pts right now.
off 100 pts late last week. anyone care to take a stab at why and how far
it'll fall?
i'm thinking of bailing out now on some of my mutual funds...
|
| 643.8 | What's your time horizon? | TLE::JBISHOP | | Mon Mar 28 1994 14:40 | 14 |
| You might want to think a bit more: if a moves of a few percent make
you want to "bail out", maybe you shouln't be in equities at all.
You might want to ask yourself what you'd like to do if this were
the beginning of a 20% drop, to be followed by around a year dragging
along, followed by a jump up. How sure are you that you can pick
the right time to get back in the market? Historically, the "up"
moves are short and unexpected: if you want to get them, you have
to be in the market when they happen.
I wonder if the mass of new owners of mutual funds are weak hands
in a down-turn?
-John Bishop
|
| 643.9 | | CSCMA::BALICH | | Mon Mar 28 1994 17:37 | 252 |
|
Re .7 Here's one mans opinion ...
MARKET BEAT/by Tom Petruno ([email protected])
for Monday, March 28, 1994
copyright Los Angeles Times
How Converging Forces
May Fuel A Wild Ride
On Wall Street This Week
Investors who aren't vacationing this week may wish they
were by the time it's over.
Mounting pessimism on Wall Street could combine with
traditional end-of-quarter portfolio shifts to produce wild
turbulence in financial markets during this holiday-
shortened week.
The only good news is that the markets' penchant for
overreaction could present opportunities for buyers who can
look ahead a few months.
Wall Street's tone turned sharply negative on Friday,
when the bellwether 30-year Treasury bond yield jumped to
7.01% from 6.95% on Thursday, marking the bond's first close
above 7% since last May.
The stock market crumbled as bond yields surged: The Dow
industrials dropped 46.36 points to 3,774.73 on Friday, the
lowest close since Jan. 3. The broader Standard & Poor's 500
stock index fell 3.77 points to 460.58, its lowest close
since mid-November.
The problems suddenly ailing the markets are legion, of
course. Inflation fears are rising despite the Federal
Reserve Board's efforts to quash those worries by tightening
credit. In fact, the Fed's latest quarter-point boost in
short-term interest rates, last Wednesday, appeared to make
investors feel worse instead of better about prospects for
U.S. stocks and bonds.
Meanwhile, the Whitewater scandal is like a spreading oil
spill within the Clinton Administration; the shining promise
of Third World economic growth has been dimmed by the
assassination of Mexico's leading presidential candidate and
by the U.S.-China row over human rights, and North Korea may
or may not decide to go to war with South Korea.
''The markets now see bogymen in every direction,''
laments William Dodge, chief investment strategist at Dean
Witter Reynolds in New York.
It would be tempting to argue that Wall Street is already
so negative that sentiment--and stock and bond prices--can't
get much worse. But a convergence of special factors could
produce a selloff of surprising magnitude this week,
analysts warn:
* THIS WILL BE A FOUR-DAY WEEK for most traders because
most financial markets will be closed on Good Friday. The
federal government, however, will be working Friday, and
will report that day on March employment, the first major
economic statistic for this month.
If bond investors fear the March gain in jobs will be
above expectations--fueling new worries about the economy's
strength and about higher interest rates--they will have to
exit bonds before Friday because they won't be able to sell
on the actual news. That could mean heavy dumping of bonds
between today and Thursday.
It doesn't help that the 30-year T-bond broke through 7%
on Friday, leading many bond pros to raise their forecasts
for rate levels between now and the end of the year. John
Lonski, economist at Moody's Investors Service in New York,
said he now expects the T-bond yield to hit 7.3% by year's
end. He had been forecasting 6.9%.
* THE FIRST QUARTER ENDS on Thursday, which means markets
will be subject to the usual quarter-end window-dressing by
institutional investors. Typically, many big investors seek
to jettison losing investments at quarter's end, so clients
don't see too many dogs on their quarterly statements.
End-of-quarter activity this time around may also involve
a rush to raise cash, as a buffer against further market
turmoil. A money manager can raise cash by selling his dogs,
but late last week it began to look as if some institutions
were cashing in their winners as well--stocks such as
Chrysler, Deere, Motorola and other industrial and
technology issues that have led the market this quarter.
* ANOTHER DOWNWARD SPIRAL IN the dollar's value against
key foreign currencies last week could translate into
renewed selling of stocks and bonds by big ''hedge funds,''
many of which invest worldwide and use heavy leverage.
The dollar's plunge in early February, when the United
States and Japan entered their trade war of words, had
tripped many hedge funds that had bet on a strengthening
dollar this year. Because they use leverage, or margin, to
up the ante in their trading, hedge funds can't afford to
stay with a bet for long if markets turn against them.
The dollar finished at 1.666 German marks in New York on
Friday, near a five-month low. The buck also closed at
104.80 Japanese yen, a drop from 106.10 a week earlier.
''Every one of these hits [to the dollar] is a margin
call'' for hedge funds, warns Dean Witter's Dodge.
* THE MUTUAL FUND INDUSTRY will report on February fund
purchases later this week, but press reports will focus more
on March purchase and redemption activity than on February
results. The latest news isn't likely to be a confidence
builder for the markets.
Fund companies have admitted in recent weeks that the
tide of money flowing into stock and bond funds late last
year has ebbed considerably since Feb. 1, as markets have
turned ugly. In March, many funds have begun to see net
outflows of cash as would-be investors hold off, and
as nervous fund owners cash out rather than ride through
market turbulence.
* FINALLY, WITH APRIL 15 LOOMING, more investors will be
tallying their tax bills for 1993, and that may mean cashing
out investments to pay Uncle Sam--especially for high-income
investors who underestimated what they'd owe in the wake of
last year's income tax hike.
Despite the risk to markets this week, many Wall Streeters
argue that stocks and bonds face no serious threat of a
crash that would devastate most diversified portfolios in
the near term. The problem today is more a function of
investors having had things too perfect for too long, some
pros say.
Until late last year, bond yields had been falling
steadily for three years, lulling many investors into the
absurd belief that they might just fall forever. And stock
market volatility was so low in both 1992 and 1993, as share
prices moved steadily higher, that the return of even normal
volatility would be enough to spook novice and veteran
investors alike, at least initially.
To put it another way, the painful reminder that one
*can* lose money in stocks and bonds is settling into
investors' psyche this quarter, and that inevitably has to
translate into some long-overdue selling, probably across
the board.
All of which could mean that stocks are finally subject
to the 10% to 15% pullback that they have thus far avoided
in this 3-year-old bull market. And bond yields may be run
up another half-point or more in panic selling.
''Whenever you have a period of relative market calm, it
is inevitably followed by a period of above-normal
volatility,'' warns Morgan White, a principal at Woodside
Asset Management in Menlo Park.
But keep your eye on the horizon, many Wall Streeters
say. For the stock market, first-quarter corporate earnings
will begin to flow out within three weeks, and they should
look sensational given the economy's healthy pace. That
should help support stock prices, especially shares of
companies with the most to gain from ongoing economic
expansion (industrial and technology stocks, among others).
And for the bond market, remember that the higher long-
term rates go, the faster they become self-defeating. Higher
rates should eventually slow the economy somewhat, which
should dampen the inflation paranoia and create an
environment wherein rates can fall back again--at least
temporarily.
It's also worth remembering, however, that if you're more
inclined to believe in continuing global economic growth
over the next few years than a new global recession, stocks
offer more money-making possibilities than bonds.
Many pros believe that buying stocks on pullbacks still
makes sense, but that bonds should be sold on any market
rallies later this spring or summer, after the current deep
gloom subsides.
Does Higher Inflation Loom?
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan has been
ridiculed by some Wall Streeters for raising short-term
interest rates this year in the name of slowing the economy
and fighting inflation.
But where's the inflation? some frustrated economists
ask. Certainly not in government gauges such as the consumer
price index, which remain quite tame.
Some analysts, however, believe the Fed and the bond
market are recognizing nascent signs of upward pressure on
prices of goods and services that may not be readily
apparent.
John Lonski, economist at Moody's Investors Service,
cites the relative ease with which banks raised the prime
lending rate last week to 6.25% from 6%, the first hike in
the prime in five years. Although banks sought to justify
the increase by citing the Fed's half-point boost in short-
term interest rates this year, the fact is that the move
represents an increase in pricing power--something the banks
haven't had for years.
''If banks can lift the price of loans without being
adversely affected by a loss of lending volume, then
companies from other industries can do likewise,'' Lonski
says.
That renewed pricing power is already showing up in
commodity businesses. After years of oversupply, prices of
such diverse commodities as steel, chlorine and lumber are
rising as demand catches up with or exceeds available
supply.
The next pricing pressure could be in wages, which
account for two-thirds of production costs. Lonski notes
that the troubles of Mexico and other countries with low
labor costs could eventually result in more job creation in
the relatively safer (at least politically) United States--
effectively transferring some wage-pricing power back to
U.S. workers.
ase and
% ====== Internet headers and postmarks (see DECWRL::GATEWAY.DOC) ======
% Received: by mts-gw.pa.dec.com (5.65/13Jan94) id AA16172; Mon, 28 Mar 94 13:29:07 -080
% Received: from localhost by mail.netcom.com (8.6.4/SMI-4.1/Netcom) id MAA06556; Mon, 28 Mar 1994 12:06:33 -080
% Date: Mon, 28 Mar 1994 12:06:33 -0800
% From: [email protected] (Tom Petruno)
% Message-Id: <[email protected]>
% Subject: Los Angeles Times Market Beat
% To: [email protected]
|
| 643.10 | Weak stomachs = buying opportunities | ZENDIA::SCHOTT | | Mon Mar 28 1994 18:11 | 6 |
| I see a huge buying opportunity approaching. I think more and
more investors are keen to how a fluctuating market works and
how it produces the opportunity for large gains.
I still think we'll see 4000-4200 by years end. Imagine getting
it at 3600!
|
| 643.11 | | NETRIX::michaud | Jeff Michaud, PATHWORKS for Win. NT | Tue Mar 29 1994 02:10 | 4 |
| > ... how it produces the opportunity for large gains.
> I still think we'll see 4000-4200 by years end. Imagine getting it at 3600!
That's 11-15%. While a good %, not what I would call large :-)
|
| 643.12 | It's gonna get real ugly real soon. But first: | VMSDEV::HALLYB | Fish have no concept of fire | Tue Mar 29 1994 11:53 | 18 |
| As I write this the DOW is at 3735. I think the market is going to have
a rally attempt the next few days. Yes, there is plenty of window-
dressing going on but we're also coming in to the seasonally strong end
of month timeframe. And holiday-shortened weeks are usually more of a
concern to bears who cover their shorts (more than usual) in case of
adverse good news over the long weekend. As a general rule, shorts have
to be more careful than longs since their risk is unlimited. This is no
news to anybody, but I recommend selling into any strength.
Labor Secretary Robert Reich deserves a big razzberry for his decision
to go ahead and announce employment data when the markets are closed.
If there's a big reaction either way the results will probably be felt
worst in Asia on Monday morning, Sunday night U.S. time when the
GLOBEX markets open. Most of Europe is closed Monday the 4th but I'll
wager the large financial firms will have traders at GLOBEX terminals
when next week's trading opens (ca. midnight Sun/Mon GMT).
John
|
| 643.13 | | ZENDIA::FERGUSON | Red X | Tue Mar 29 1994 14:31 | 6 |
| Well, I have a fair number of good gains, and thought that I might take
a cash position while the market shakes out. It is still dropping (-35+
down right now). Profit taking, so to speak. When the market appears to
be hitting a bottom, i'll buy again. but, i suppose trying to time the
market is the big,big wildcard here. would i be able to pick the market
bottom? probably not... but, it was a thought.
|
| 643.14 | Not done yet | CADSYS::CADSYS::BENOIT | | Tue Mar 29 1994 17:14 | 4 |
| Dow off another 63...s&p off 16....10:1 decliners over advancers....time to get
out the checkbook.
/mtb
|
| 643.15 | | SMAUG::GOVOTSKI | Ray Govotski | Tue Mar 29 1994 17:40 | 11 |
|
Re: JC
I've been doing dollar cost averaging by investing monthly in my mutual
funds just to soften the blow of market swings such as this one. I know I
won't need to touch the money for awhile (2-4 years at least). I just hope
DCA pays off for me. There are no guarantees after all.
fwiw,
Ray
|
| 643.16 | Broad market correction in progress | 2155::michaud | Jeff Michaud - ObjectBroker | Fri Mar 08 1996 15:57 | 47 |
| Major Ouch! DJIA down over 210 pts at some point, down 170
right now. It appears to be very widspread as everyone one of
the 16 stocks in my portfolio (except the 2 tech. stocks in
my portfolio, INTC and AMD [I don't count DEC as part of my
stock portfolio] which is interesting) is down, most of them down
3-5% interestingly seems to be how much the DJIA is down even though
I've only got 2 DJIA stocks in my portfolio).
Even my retail stocks and other stocks that I thought would like
the employment report (see below) are down with the rest of them.
Update to the following, I forgot to mention that CNN HN had also
reported that in that 1st hour trading that 7 out of 8 stocks
were down (I don't remember if they said that was for the DJIA
stocks, or all the stocks on the NYSE).
Could this be the start of the long overdue correction (or worse,
a crash)? :-((((((((
Note: 705.11
Author: 2155::michaud "Jeff Michaud - ObjectBroker"
Topic: long term interest rates?
Title: Good economic news is once again sending markets into tailspin
Date: 8-MAR-1996 11:30
In case anyone has heard yet, the unemployment report that came
out before the market opened showed the best rebound since 1983.
For Feb. unemployment as 5.5% (compared to 5.8% for Jan.) with
705,000 new non-farm jobs added to the payroll last month.
This is driving all the markets down on the fear that the above
report has dashed all hopes for another easing of interest rates
by the Fed.
Delayed openings for lots of DJIA stocks and other controls
activated as sell orders piled up before the open, and the
DJIA was still down 120 points within the 1st 1/2 hour.
The 30 year bond down over 2pts in price driving up the yield.
Anyone getting a new morgage or refinancing better hope they have
a rate lock or better hope some other economic report shows the
economy is not headed for the recovery todays unemployment
report seems to indicate.
Todays unemployment report could just be a fluck with all those
new jobs being temp. ones in the media business to follow campain
1996 :-)))
|
| 643.17 | Day ending numbers (DJIA down 171.24 at the close) | 2155::michaud | Jeff Michaud - ObjectBroker | Fri Mar 08 1996 18:06 | 190 |
| End of the day summary. Of the 16 stocks in my portfolio, as
you can see only the two tech. stocks (both chip makers fwiw).
Also out of all the other stocks I watch only IHHI (healthcare),
OXHP (another healthcare), TSY (another tech stock), JTV (telecom),
PQT (internet/brokerage, interestingly some analyst recommended
shorting believe it will go all the way down to "1"), MOT (another
chip maker), ANN (retail clothing), CHTL (pharm., up a nice 11%
in this very down trading day), GEMS (another telecom), and IP
(cyclical, the only blue chip that closed up).
**** MY PORTFOLIO
Symb LastTrad Change %Chg Bid Ask DayLow DayHigh 52Wlow 52WHigh
INTC 53.5 +0.5 +0.9 53.5 53.625 51.5 54.125 39.5625 78.375
Z 14.125 -0.625 -4.2 V: 881300 14 14.375 9.375 19.375
DR 12.25 -0.5 -3.9 V: 45500 12.125 12.625 11 29.375
CWN 7.75 -0.125 -1.6 V: 54700 7.625 7.75 6.5 13.25
PYX 7.875 -0.125 -1.6 V: 38600 7.75 7.875 6.5 12.375
TBL 21 -1 -4.6 V: 54100 20.75 21.75 17.5 36.625
LTG 5.5 -0.125 -2.2 V: 58300 5.25 5.625 3.5 8
SEW 27.75 -0.875 -3.1 V: 82100 27.25 28.5 22 30.25
BSMT 2.875 -0.0625 -2.1 2.75 3 2.75 3 2.0625 6.625
BUS 3.375 -0.3125 -8.5 V: 137700 3.3125 3.625 1.75 5.6875
AXP 44.875 -1.75 -3.8 V: 2137000 44.75 45.75 31.875 47.875
ADM 18.625 -0.625 -3.2 V: 866800 18.375 19 14.25 19.625
AMD 17.5 +0.25 +1.5 V: 601600 16.75 17.875 16.125 38.875
TMX 29 -1.625 -5.3 V: 4650400 29 30.125 23 36.625
HDI 35.875 -0.875 -2.4 V: 253600 35.375 36.5 22 36.875
HUM 24.25 -1.25 -4.9 V: 739100 24.125 25 17 28.875
Symbol: DEC (DIGITAL EQUIPMENT) [NYSE]
Last Trade: 61 5/8, Change -2 3/8 (-3.71%) at Mar 08 4:02:50
Low & High: 60 1/8 & 64 1/8 (spread 4)
52 Week Low & High: 31 5/8 & 76 1/2 (spread 44 7/8)
Volume/# of Trades: 1524000 / 655 (2326 shares/trade)
P/E: 23.90, EPS: 2.68, Market Cap: 6579.00, Beta: 0.99, EPS Growth: -27.80
**** STOCKS I OWNED IN THE PAST
Symb LastTrad Change %Chg Bid Ask DayLow DayHigh 52Wlow 52WHigh
U 16.5 -0.5 -2.9 V: 307400 16.25 16.875 5.125 17.875
IHHI 2.5 +0.0625 +2.6 2.5 2.5625 2.3125 2.75 1.9375 3.125
RHI 44.625 -0.875 -1.9 V: 42200 44.625 45.25 19.625 45.625
MAN 33.375 -0.5 -1.5 V: 107000 33 33.625 23.625 34.25
CATH 7.75 -0.125 -1.6 7.625 7.875 7.5 7.875 6.125 13.25
SYBS 28 -1.75 -5.9 28 28.125 28 29.5 19.875 45.75
BOST 35.125 -2.25 -6 35.125 35.375 35.125 37 15.375 37.625
KM 7.625 -0.375 -4.7 V: 4512100 7.5 7.875 5.75 16.25
GTE 41.875 -2 -4.6 V: 2378200 41.625 44 31.875 49.25
UNH 62.375 -2.875 -4.4 V: 879100 62.375 64.75 34.125 69
TSO 8.125 -0.375 -4.4 V: 116900 8 8.5 7.25 12
DJT 23.75 -0.75 -3.1 V: 19800 23.625 24.25 11.375 25.625
TOY 25.625 -0.625 -2.4 V: 1158100 24.75 25.625 20.5 29.5
DEC1A 26.25 -0.5 -1.9 V: 23900 26.125 26.5 23.375 26.875
GTY 14.375 -0.375 -2.5 V: 900 14.375 14.625 10.75 15.625
HD 46.75 -1.5 -3.1 V: 2246900 46.375 48 36.625 49
NSH 10.875 -0.375 -3.3 V: 14800 10.875 11 9.125 20.25
ATC 3.25 -0.25 -7.1 V: 273500 3.125 3.5625 1.1875 5
MSFT 95.125 -2.1875 -2.2 95 95.125 94.75 97.5 62.875 109.25
WALL 14.25 -0.125 -0.9 13.75 14.25 13.625 14.25 13 55.5
HRVY 8.5 no change 8.5 9 8.5 8.5 6.25 17.75
AKSEF 4.125 -0.375 -8.3 4 4.25 4 4.5 2.4375 26.625
WMT 22 -0.75 -3.3 V: 3218800 21.875 22.75 19.125 27.5
CRUS 17.75 -0.125 -0.7 17.75 17.875 17.375 18.625 16.6875 61.125
SBP 0.6875 no change 0.5625 7.875
TACO 5.5 -0.2812 -4.9 5.5 5.75 5.5 5.875 4.375 7.375
**** HMO/HEALTHCARE RELATED STOCKS
Symb LastTrad Change %Chg Bid Ask DayLow DayHigh 52Wlow 52WHigh
HS 37.375 -1.125 -2.9 V: 368800 36.875 37.75 15.125 40.875
DR 12.25 -0.5 -3.9 V: 45500 12.125 12.625 11 29.375
HUM 24.25 -1.25 -4.9 V: 739100 24.125 25 17 28.875
USHC 46.875 -2.75 -5.5 46.75 46.875 45.625 49.375 26.5 50.75
OXHP 86.75 +0.25 +0.3 86.75 87.25 84.75 89.25 38.5 86.625
HHC 17.375 -1 -5.4 V: 767200 16.875 17.875 16.625 28
UNH 62.375 -2.875 -4.4 V: 879100 62.375 64.75 34.125 69
UAH 12.5 -0.5 -3.8 V: 26500 12.5 13 9.125 24.75
SHG 12 no change V: 176400 11.875 12 9.125 27.125
IHS 21.125 -1 -4.5 V: 108600 21 21.875 19.625 39.75
CVTY 15.75 -0.875 -5.3 15.75 16 15.75 16.625 11 31
FH 36.625 -1 -2.7 V: 416200 36.375 37.125 26.625 46.75
SMD 14.625 -0.5 -3.3 V: 54400 14.25 15 14.125 36.75
MAM 18.375 -0.5 -2.7 V: 21100 18.125 19 12.25 20.375
HRC 34 -1.625 -4.6 V: 491900 33.625 35.625 16.375 36.125
**** STOCKS THAT CAUGHT MY EYE AT ONE TIME OR ANTOTHER
Symb LastTrad Change %Chg Bid Ask DayLow DayHigh 52Wlow 52WHigh
F 31.25 -1.125 -3.5 V: 2684900 31 32.125 24.875 32.875
MYCO 17.75 -1.25 -6.6 17.5 18 17.5 19 7.75 20
MYL 19.5 -0.75 -3.7 V: 343300 19.5 20.125 18 24.5
WTHG 21 -0.75 -3.5 20.875 21 20.875 21.625 16.625 23.25
PLAB 18.75 -2.5 -12 18.5 18.75 18.5 21 18.25 41.25
CBRA 35.9375 no change 35.75 36 35.75 35.9375 20 38.375
ELY 24.5 -0.875 -3.5 V: 624500 24.25 25.125 11.25 26
IBM 113.75 -3.5 -3 V: 4680400 112.25 116.875 78.5 128.875
ORCL 47 -2.75 -5.5 47 47.125 47 49.75 28 55
KMAG 28.375 -0.625 -2.2 28.375 28.75 27.75 29.25 12.4375 37.4375
SBUX 19.5 -0.625 -3.1 19.375 19.625 19.125 20 11.125 23.5
WWY 58.875 -0.5 -0.8 V: 210800 58.5 59.5 42.875 62.875
CAT 67.25 -0.5 -0.7 V: 808300 65.875 68.5 48.25 75.25
DANB 15 -0.5 -3.2 15 15.25 15 15.375 11.125 22.25
BI 20.875 -0.375 -1.8 V: 11400 20.75 21.125 17.625 25.625
TSY 32.75 +0.125 +0.4 V: 5700 32.625 32.75 21.125 33.5
NWS1 19.625 -0.375 -1.9 V: 580800 19.5 20 16.125 22.125
JOIN 13.75 -1 -6.8 13.5 14 13.75 14 11.75 17.5
JTV 12.875 +0.125 +1 V: 2200 12.75 12.875 10.375 13.875
HAN 14.375 -0.25 -1.7 V: 3807900 14.25 14.625 14 19.75
PQT 11.625 +0.25 +2.2 V: 181800 10.375 11.75 1 27.5
MOT 52.875 +0.5 +0.9 V: 4448600 51.25 54 47.5 82.375
GEER 3.75 -0.75 -17 3.75 4 3.75 4.625 4 17.75
ERICY 20.25 -1.0625 -5 20.125 20.25 20.125 21 14.0313 26.25
WAG 33 -1.125 -3.3 V: 497000 32.875 33.875 22.625 36.375
PIR 12.125 -0.625 -4.9 V: 87700 12 12.625 7.75 13.875
DUR 51.125 -1 -1.9 V: 188900 50.75 52 41.375 55
HLT 90 -5.625 -5.9 V: 228600 88.5 94.75 60.375 99.625
MGG 37.375 -0.75 -2 V: 235000 36.875 38.25 22.75 38.375
CHTL 6.25 +0.625 +11 6.125 6.25 5.1875 6.375 1.875 28.125
CUTS 4.25 -0.375 -8.1 4.125 4.5 4.125 4.875 4.625 10.75
VIAB 41.875 -0.875 -2 V: 1112900 41.25 42.375 37.125 54.25
TOL 19.5 -0.875 -4.3 V: 389400 18.625 19.875 11.125 23.5
FDX 70.5 -2.25 -3.1 V: 291000 70.125 72.5 58.5 86
XRX 126.75 -3.375 -2.6 V: 601400 126.25 130.5 109.375 144.625
CCI 77.125 -2.75 -3.4 V: 3452700 75.5 78.625 39.625 81.625
ANN 17.75 +0.875 +5.2 V: 581700 16 18.125 9.25 38
TTI 5.375 -0.25 -4.4 V: 279800 5.375 5.75 3.75 7.5
BRK 37000 -900 -2.4 V: 17000 37000 37300 21500 38000
LSI 25.375 -0.375 -1.5 V: 2761000 25 26.25 22.75 62.5
TER 17.625 -0.375 -2.1 V: 1631500 16.875 18.25 8.5 34
CLN 43 -0.25 -0.6 V: 57500 41.5 43.5 31 47.5
GNT 34.25 -1.375 -3.9 V: 1552500 33.625 35 17.5 36.875
GEMS 34 +0.5 +1.5 34 34.5 30.375 35.25 17.4375 49.1563
SHO 12.375 -0.5 -3.9 V: 10900 12.375 12.75 6.625 15
**** MEXICAN (or RELATED) STOCKS
Symb LastTrad Change %Chg Bid Ask DayLow DayHigh 52Wlow 52WHigh
TV 23.625 -1.25 -5 V: 882400 23.625 24.75 12.125 30.125
TMX 29 -1.625 -5.3 V: 4650400 29 30.125 23 36.625
WMX 30.125 no change V: 4118799 29.5 31 26.125 32.5
MISS 21.875 -1 -4.4 21.875 22.25 21.875 23.125 15.375 25.125
**** AMERICAN AUTO STOCKS
Symb LastTrad Change %Chg Bid Ask DayLow DayHigh 52Wlow 52WHigh
C 57.75 -2.125 -3.5 V: 2155300 57.75 59.125 38.25 60.125
F 31.25 -1.125 -3.5 V: 2684900 31 32.125 24.875 32.875
GM 50.875 -1.625 -3.1 V: 2058300 50.625 52.125 38.875 54.625
**** DJIA STOCKS
Symb LastTrad Change %Chg Bid Ask DayLow DayHigh 52Wlow 52WHigh
ALD 55.25 -2.25 -3.9 V: 777700 55.125 57.125 37 59.25
AA 58.125 -0.625 -1.1 V: 1378200 57.5 60.125 36.875 60.25
AXP 44.875 -1.75 -3.8 V: 2137000 44.75 45.75 31.875 47.875
T 63.125 -1.75 -2.7 V: 3993000 60.25 63.875 48 68.875
BS 14.25 -0.625 -4.2 V: 962300 14.25 14.75 12.625 18.25
BA 78.625 -1.75 -2.2 V: 1788200 76.375 79.75 45.5 84.625
CAT 67.25 -0.5 -0.7 V: 808300 65.875 68.5 48.25 75.25
CHV 53.625 -1.875 -3.4 V: 1088900 53.5 55.25 44.5 58.875
KO 80.25 -3.25 -3.9 V: 2216600 80 82.875 54.75 84.375
DIS 65.875 -1.375 -2 V: 2258800 64.875 67.75 50.5 67.25
DD 76.125 -2.75 -3.5 V: 1788300 75.25 78.625 54.625 81.25
EK 72 -3.125 -4.2 V: 1029600 71.5 74.25 50.125 77.875
XON 79.25 -3.5 -4.2 V: 1190900 79.125 82.5 63.375 86
GE 74.75 -3.25 -4.2 V: 3177800 73.75 77.125 52 80.375
GM 50.875 -1.625 -3.1 V: 2058300 50.625 52.125 38.875 54.625
GT 50.625 -0.625 -1.2 V: 582300 49.5 51.125 33.75 51.875
IBM 113.75 -3.5 -3 V: 4680400 112.25 116.875 78.5 128.875
IP 38.375 +0.25 +0.7 V: 4204300 37.25 38.75 34.125 45.625
MCD 50.875 -1.875 -3.5 V: 2252900 50 51.875 32.75 54.25
MRK 64.375 -2.625 -3.9 V: 4683100 60.5 66.375 41.25 71.375
MMM 63 -2.75 -4.2 V: 623900 63 65.25 52.875 69.875
JPM 80.75 -4 -4.7 V: 850900 79.375 83.5 58.5 85.75
MO 99.75 -4.75 -4.6 V: 2301300 99.75 103.625 61.375 104.625
PG 85.25 -2.25 -2.6 V: 1405600 84.25 86.375 64.875 90.625
S 45.875 -1.875 -3.9 V: 819000 45.25 47.625 24.25 50
TX 82.375 -1.125 -1.4 V: 973600 82.25 83.375 62.875 83.75
UK 45.375 -0.125 -0.3 V: 567200 43.75 45.625 26.75 46.25
UTX 106 -3 -2.8 V: 551100 105 108.5 64.5 112.25
WX 18 -0.375 -2 V: 957900 17.875 18.375 12.625 21
Z 14.125 -0.625 -4.2 V: 881300 14 14.375 9.375 19.375
**** DOGS OF THE DJIA
Symb LastTrad Change %Chg Bid Ask DayLow DayHigh 52Wlow 52WHigh
MO 99.75 -4.75 -4.6 V: 2301300 99.75 103.625 61.375 104.625
TX 82.375 -1.125 -1.4 V: 973600 82.25 83.375 62.875 83.75
JPM 80.75 -4 -4.7 V: 850900 79.375 83.5 58.5 85.75
CHV 53.625 -1.875 -3.4 V: 1088900 53.5 55.25 44.5 58.875
XON 79.25 -3.5 -4.2 V: 1190900 79.125 82.5 63.375 86
DD 76.125 -2.75 -3.5 V: 1788300 75.25 78.625 54.625 81.25
MMM 63 -2.75 -4.2 V: 623900 63 65.25 52.875 69.875
IP 38.375 +0.25 +0.7 V: 4204300 37.25 38.75 34.125 45.625
GE 74.75 -3.25 -4.2 V: 3177800 73.75 77.125 52 80.375
EK 72 -3.125 -4.2 V: 1029600 71.5 74.25 50.125 77.875
|
| 643.18 | Elaine says we are only in the beginning of a correction right now! | 2155::michaud | Jeff Michaud - ObjectBroker | Wed Jul 24 1996 01:21 | 30 |
| Notefile: ABAcus::Trading
Note: 23.593
Author: VAXCPU::michaud "Jeff Michaud - ObjectBroker"
Topic: General Market Predictions
Title: Elaine says sell all your domestic stocks NOW!
Date: 24-JUL-1996 00:16
Lines: 22
> fyi, Elaine G. uses a forecasting model that keeps her either 100% in
> or out of the market. When the model drops below 30 (on on 1-100 scale),
> she sells everything and doesn't jump back in until the model goes over
> 65. Her model is at a neutral-to-bullish 48.5 as of July 8.
Well her model has gone to bearish. NBR reported (Tues's show)
that the reason for the sell off in the late afternoon trading
today was due to market guru Elaine G. telling her institutional
clients to sell all their United States stocks now because
she sees a 15-25% decline from the June highs. NBR also put
up this graphic:
Elaine Garzarelli, Garzarelli Investment Management
Sell all US stocks immediately
S&P 500 falls 15-25% from June peak
3-9 months before stocks resume rise
She attributes the sell signal due to the change in corporate
cash flows and other negatives similiar to the situation before
the Oct. 1984 correction.
|
| 643.19 | Who[m] do you trust? | EVMS::HALLYB | Fish have no concept of fire | Wed Jul 24 1996 08:42 | 6 |
| Funny about that. When she was on NBR a couple Fridays ago Elaine said
she didn't see her indicators turning bearish anytime soon. Then last
night she "couldn't be reached for comment". Either the whole thing
is a hoax or you can't trust her public interviews. Take your pick...
John
|
| 643.20 | Well I haven't cashed out yet, still holding | 2155::michaud | Jeff Michaud - ObjectBroker | Wed Jul 24 1996 11:36 | 20 |
| > Funny about that. When she was on NBR a couple Fridays ago Elaine said
> she didn't see her indicators turning bearish anytime soon. Then last
> night she "couldn't be reached for comment". Either the whole thing
> is a hoax or you can't trust her public interviews. Take your pick...
Yes, her recent NBR appearance was interesting. Her indicators
then seemed still too close to trigger her sell signal for her
to sit so pat.
In any case, right now it doesn't matter whether we trust her or
not, it appears her clients do (?). Just saw CNN HN also crediting
her with *predicting* the Oct. '87 crash [correction] (btw, I put
Oct. '84 in my last note because that's what NBR said, and I just
listened to it for the 3rd time and that's indeed what they said).
Does anyone know how many times Elaine has signaled a sell like
this that ended up being a false signal?
Only time can tell whether she got lucky twice or not :-) Hopefully
she's not trusted enough to cause a self-furfilling profecy :-(
|
| 643.21 | Her first Sell Signal in Six Years | 16632::GEORGES | | Wed Jul 24 1996 15:13 | 10 |
| After a 15 minute wait on the phone, I got through to the operator who
gladly FAXed me my copy of Elaine's alert. (For some reason, my home
phone number wasn't in my record, so I didn't get the "automatic" call
earlier in the day. Maybe they know I'm probably going to cancel my
subscription following the trial period. :-) )
The one-page alert says that her model just dropped 20 points to 28.5,
which gives a sell signal for all US equities.
|
| 643.22 | Was she right six years ago? | 2155::michaud | Jeff Michaud - ObjectBroker | Wed Jul 24 1996 17:07 | 11 |
| > Her first Sell Signal in Six Years
Hmm, so she doesn't sound like one of those analysts who are
no different than other future tellers who make hundreds of
predictions, and then when a couple of them become true
they say "I told ya" :-)
So 6 years ago was 1990, did the market indeed correct in the
range she predicted for that sell signal? And out of curiosity,
how far in advance was her sell signal prior to the Oct. '87
correction that she is being credited with predicting?
|
| 643.23 | | PCBUOA::KRATZ | | Wed Jul 24 1996 17:37 | 3 |
| She was let go (by Shearson-Lehman I believe) after some of her calls
a few years ago failed to materialize. A DWI arrest didn't help
either.
|