Conference nyoss1::market_investing

>    But for now, does anybody have some reasonable guesses where one could
>    venture out there into the wilderness?  I'm thinking of breaking my
>    little pot into four $5K chunks and playing away with them.

Auto stocks.

	Las Vegas?

    I heard on this morning's business report that George Soros has taken a
    position anticipating that interest rates will soon increase.
    
    Perhaps you can bet with Soros by buying put options on treasury
    futures!

   Digital stock?

   :-) :-)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>> My spouse has given me permission to play with $20K.!!!

     Vow, I wish my wife was that generous..  She only allows me to play 
     with that much money if I could absolutely guarantee that I will win!!!


>>>> .... I thought I'd make a quick gain on DEC.  ...

     I personally do not like to chase after DEC stock for a quick gain.  
     As an employee I am too emotional and always take the wrong side....
     Currently I have sold all my holdings (with a loss ofcourse) and
     will wait for the Q1 results and see if there is a reasonable trend.

>>>> But for now, does anybody have some reasonable guesses where one could
     venture out there into the wilderness?  

     I like the healthcare sector as a short term speculation.  
     In my view they are already beaten to death by the uncertainty of
     the Clinton Plan.  Among the ones I have TRADED recently and will 
     trade are HMO stocks.  I like them because I think with/without the
     passage of Healthcare Plan, they are the winners..

     Some examples: 
     (Note: I always use stop-loss for the short term trades and recommend 
            it very highly to preserve capital)

     FHP International (NASDAQ: FHPC).  Been in the range of $19 - $22 on
     a weekly basis.  Todays' price was $19 7/8's.  Bought at $20 will exit
     at $21.5 or $18.5 (stop loss).

     Foundation Health (NYSE: FH).  Been in the range of $22 - $24

     PacifiCare (NASDAQ: PHSYA). range of $31 - $35.  On this one it is
     hard to get in at a low price as the difference between ask/bid is
     almost $1.  

     Some Hints:
    
     I avoid the high fliers (Oracle, Intell, Telecomm, etc.) as the
     saying goes "Don't chase a train once left the station"

     Avoid the ones with sharp drop..  as one noter would say "Hoping to 
     catch the bottom is like trying to catch falling knife.. you
     get bloodied"  I did a few times.

     And finally always go after the companies that are MAKING money NOW
     and you are reasonably sure that they will be profitable...... 
     not hoping to get into BLACK in the future.  That was my mistake
     with DEC.
     
     As always the usual disclaimers apply....

     Good Trading....
              

    Gold

    Disney is a great buy in the 30's. Don't believe all you read about 
    the impact of a slow Europe. Disney is adding a large amount of rooms
    at Disney World.
    
    This would be where I would plunk 5k or better buy a hundred shares.
    
    Mutual fund like FIdelity Purtian is a steady and constant return at
    least for the last couple years. I thisk the return is in the high
    teens.
    
    How about Boston Chicken--DO you eat! this appears to be a winner in
    the short term.
    
    
    some leads 
    ron

    If you believe all the current hype in terms of entertainment in
    general...

I've always found Disney to be creative in their approach to entertainment.
They came up with the concept of "children's classic", which basically means
run the same movie on a 7 year cycle (or the length of a "child's" life cycle).
Don't, under any circumstances (like packed movie theaters), extend the showing
of the movie past the "out of school new movie" or the "Christmas break new
movie"  timeframe.  Make it a commodity.  Hook these children so hard that when
they become adults (in three or four cycles) they pull their kids into the
circle.  Better yet, as actor's become more expensive, "animate them", it's
cheaper.  But put some of your profits in your animation so it's the best.
Now.....comes video cassettes....what's their life span (probably about 7 years)
promote and release these films on video, but refuse to keep them on the market
even if they are still selling, state that they will only be on the market a
short time, so "buy yours now"....chances are your copy will be long since
forgotten when you grow up and have kids, and the first thing you do is run
out and order "Aladdin" before it's even out!  Remember Disney is more than
just an amusement park....it's a multimedia blitz.

I think it can be summed up with a little blurb I recently read.  Robin Williams
(the voice of the genie in Aladdin) wanted to do a Disney film for his kid.  So
he worked for minimum actor wage ($425 an hour).  Disney was so pleased when it
was all over the sent him a Picasso as a token of their esteem.....yeah their
not making good money.
                                                                             
my .02 cents

Michael

    If you want to Speculate, buy OEX Call options at 3:30 pm on 10/25.
    Maybe $1,000 worth of near- or at-the-money Nov. calls.  I predict an
    up move next week based on expected short-term oversold conditions
    and favorable seasonal factors.
    
      John

    John,
    
    Can you be a little more specific for a neophyte?  What do I need to
    do?  When?  What safety nets should I put in place; if possible?  If I
    were tro speculate with $1K what might I realize in returns if your
    speculation were to pay off?  And any other thoughts you might have.
    
    	Regards,
    
    	Ron
    

    Not that I would ever want to disagree with Mr. Hallyburton, but I
    don't think a purchase of index options is the right place for a
    beginner to start investing in.
    
    But, to answer .11's questions:
    
    >What do I need to do?  When?
    1. You need to get approved to trade options.  This probably involved
       completing a form with your broker, and demonstrating certain 
       minimum net worth and net income requirements (which aren't very
       strict)
    2. On the appropriate date determine the current index value, and 
       lookup (in a periodical like the WSJ) the available November
       options.  Search for the option with a price closest to the
       current index value.
    3. Ask your broker what that option is trading at, determine how many
       'contracts' you can purchase with $1000 (or whatever) and buy them.
    
    As for 'safety nets' it is a little difficult; you have to be prepared
    and willing to lose the *entire* investment in potentially a single
    day, if the market suddenly tanks.  It is difficult to put much of a
    safety net in place with these options.

    re .12
    
    Well; I "lost" more than $1K for three days straight with DEC; Why, I'm
    so used to losin' money I thought I'd give this a try. ;-)
    
    On this particular deal, if things were "successful" for me would I end
    up buting the actual shares and then have to sell them?  Or would I
    resell the option at a later date?  Is there a difference between these
    two methods on the amount I could make if things were successful?
    
    I read in an earlier note that people don't generally "buy" the stock
    as they have to pay more in commissions this way.  Is that true here?
    
    What is a reasonable gain on what was offered as a suggestion in .-2
    should this be successfu?  In other words, if I'm willing to risk $1K
    in a day, what is the other side of this in success?
    
    	Regards,
    
    	Ron
    

    
    Typically one closes an option position by selling the option, rather
    than using the option to buy the underlying security and then selling
    the security.  For people paying commissions on each trade it is
    cheaper to simply sell the option.
    
    Index options are always settled in cash, not securities.  So
    excersising an 'in the money' index option delivers cash, not stock. 
    But even so it is usually easier to sell the option, and the option
    almost always trades at some premium to its excersise value.
    

    I'm not one to disagree with Mr. Bouchard, but I think that index
    options are probably the _best_ way to start speculating.  They are
    highly liquid, less volatile than individual stock options and not
    subject to those annoying margin calls.
    
    But, as noted, you must be prepared to lose your entire stake.  For
    the specific case mentioned, look to double or triple your stake by,
    say, 3-Nov.  Don't think about any kind of delivery, just buy the
    option at the market and plan to sell the option for whatever it will
    fetch at the market on or about Nov. 3rd.
    
    This is assuming the market is down into Monday.  Don't take the trade
    if the market is moving up (meaning, say, S&P 100 is higher Monday P.M.
    than it is now (428.50)).
    
      John

    I've been a Gold bug for many years... Now I'm a Gold dinosaur!!!. If
    ever you want to make it rich quick (over the next 2-3 years), Gold is
    the way to go. Gold Funds like Scudder, Vanguard, and Invesco are best.
    Gold stocks like Atlas, American Barrick, Sunshine Mines, and  Placer
    Dome are best. In fact, if you want to further diversify, by junk
    silver pre-1965 coins and Silver Bullion in the 100 oz size. On the
    bullion, you'll pay that day's closing price plus a commission.
    Commissions vary, so ask around....and make sure the silver says
    Englehard On it. Mark

Why not try a risky mutual fund instead?  Scudder Latin America is up over 40%
since it opened the second week of January.  It's as simple as filling out an
application and mailing in a check....;-)

Michael

     re: .15
    
     Here is the OEX data for the close of trade on Friday 10/22/93:

     OEX: High: 428.66  Low: 424.14   Close: 424.15

     OPTIONS:
     Strike Price:      420           425            430
     ==============    ===========   =============  ==============

     Nov.               7 1/8  -2    4     -1 1/2    1 3/4  -1 1/8
     Dec.               9 3/4  -2    6 5/8 -1 3/4    4 1/8  -1 1/2

     John, is the Nov. 425 the closest near the money?  With 20 trading days
     left till expiration, is that a fair price to pay for call options?

    The Nov. 425 Calls Friday were fairly priced at 3 7/8, so a closing
    price of 4 is pretty reasonable.  Those are the ones to buy.
    
    Options expire November 19, i.e., 25 days from today.
    
      John

    Re -1,.15:
    
    Why would you want to exit out of those options on or about 3-NOV-93?
    Is that a firm date? or should we see how OEX behaves between now and
    then?
    

    That's a firm date, based on approximate cycle high due then.

    RE: 
    
    Note 592.21 -< Trade mindlessly >-
    
    If you apply this formula over the next 12 months, what level of
    return do you expect.
    
    Or looking back, what has been your compounded annual rate of return
    over the last couple of years when using mindless trading?
    
    
    /Joe

John,

Since the OEX had a run up yesterday, is the OEX already at a high for the
November 425 calls?  I got a copy of your quarterly pattern and have used it 
over the last couple of weeks (thanks for the dough).  How does the run up 
effect the pattern now?

    I think there's ~4 more days to come.  Hold, unless you can't sleep
    with your position.  Of course with the market closing yesterday at
    the magic Elliott Wave figure of 3686, give or take 2, it does give one
    pause to consider.
    
      John

    Just for the record, selling at Tuesday's close yielded an option price
    of 6 or so, with a buy price of 4 and change.  Not bad, not a killing.
    
      John

    re -1.  Thanks a lot John.  Not bad at all; 50% in 9 days is more than
    I expected. Is it time now to buy some put options? 

>    ... Is it time now to buy some put options? 
    
    Let's take the short-term plays over to TRADING and leave INVESTING
    for the longer term perspective.
    
      John

    Where is the TRADING conference?
    
    Thanks,
    
    	Jon