Conference nyoss1::market_investing

I too bought novell for 19 1/2 and it is selling below what i paid for it.
however, i'm in it for the long haul as i think the stock price will go up
over time.


you need to understand your goals before you decide.  are you in it for the
short-term or long-term?  do you need the money right now?


i say hold.

    
    re: .0
    
    Why did you buy the stock in the first place?  In your analysis of the
    stock (before you bought it), did you think that it will go up in about
    a year?  If so, then hold; if you're revising your analysis and
    expectations and think that it'll be lower, then sell.
    
    Do you know why Novell is dropping in price?  Once you determine this,
    do you think the cause is short-term or long-term?  I saw an article in
    the Boston Globe about Novell trying to get other companies to buy-in
    to a standardized UNIX (or something like that) and the other companies
    did not go for it.
    
    

re         <<< Note 586.2 by 11SRUS::DENNY::PERIQUET "Dennis Periquet" >>>
                     -< Go back to your initial analysis >-

>    Do you know why Novell is dropping in price?  Once you determine this,
>    do you think the cause is short-term or long-term?  I saw an article in
>    the Boston Globe about Novell trying to get other companies to buy-in
>    to a standardized UNIX (or something like that) and the other companies
>    did not go for it.
 
I have a similar article posted outside my office cut out of this Monday's
paper.  The UNIX trademark is being given up to be used for free by any
s/w vendor.  It seems that many people are worried about NT and its
potential future grip on the market.  This move is seen to thwart NT
penetration.  Novell is just one [scared] player in the whole game.
    

     I owned NOVELL and was stopped out at $21.5 (thank God) with a
     10% loss.  The way I see it there are some short term pressure on
     this stock from Microsofts' NT.

     If I was you, I will put a stop at a comfortable position
     (resistance has been around $17) and get out if it falls below
     that.  With the upcoming quarterly results as well Comdex in
     November one never knows what might happen (good or bad).

     Again long term (over a year) this might not be a bad stock to
     own as it still is the volume leader on NASDAQ on most days.


     

    
    Putting a limit order like .-1 suggested might be a good idea even
    though you might think that it's a good long term investment.  If it
    goes down far enough, you can buy it back cheaper.
    
    But, be careful because depending on how many shares you own, you could
    be losing lots of cash on commissions.
    
    Dennis
    

Novell was the volume leader on the NASDAQ yesturday - up 1 5/8 I reckon to
close at 20 3/4.

Did they announce something positive (earnings) ?  The Globe didn't say 
anything, either that or i missed it.

    Re -1:   Novell is up in the $22 range today.  Called the investor
    relations.  They will announce their Q4 and year-end-result on the week
    of December 6th.
    
    Also noticed that the short interest in Novell has dropped shrply (in
    today's WSJ).  May be a lot of short covering.  Nice comeback though.

	Ray Noorda, 69, has announced that he is stepping down. 
	Novell was up a 1/4 today. 

NOVELL is at $24 or so right about now, up 1/2 today.

Are there any rumblings about the pending earnings report due out next
week?  

Looks like bad qtr results came out of NOVL:  down to 20 5/8 as of 10:35 or so.

    On the Business Channel this am they wre saying the Q4 results were
    $.22 vs. expectation of $.23.  They kill you with a $.01 difference.
    Also Novell was downgraded yesterday by some analysts...

�                     <<< Note 586.11 by SWLAVC::HOSSEINI >>>
�                              -< $.22 per share >-
�
�    On the Business Channel this am they wre saying the Q4 results were
�    $.22 vs. expectation of $.23.  They kill you with a $.01 difference.
    
    I don't think it was just the $0.01 difference. I think if you excluded
    gains from USL, they would end up pretty poorly. I think also that
    revenues were up but the earnings were down, possibly indicating that
    cost of sales was high or the expenses are not in control.
    
    Raja

Novell was off 3 5/8ths yesturday.  Painful day!  


Lesson learned:   Don't forget to set a stop-loss.

    
    Re. -1: 
            Novell trades on OTC. Most brokers won't allow a stop-loss on
    OTC stocks. You will have to set a mental limit and follow it up by 
    calling every 15 minutes ! :-(
    
    Cheers, Nitin.

    Any news today on Novell? They are up to $23 again?

Probably pulled up by Lotus' 6+ point gain yesturday.

    I believe one of the brokerage houses issued a rosy forcast and a
    buy recommendation on it yesterday. Don't recall who it was.

    Novel was up again today.  I think it close at 25 5/8.  A number of
    good things are happening:
    
    1. They will sell "source licenses" to Unix programs (see attached wsj)
    2. They had a decent earning report same earning but higher rev.
    3. They have been recommended by a few analysts.
    
    I have been told (by a broker!) that if Novell goes over $26 and stays,
    it's a good hold.  If on the other hand dropps below $24 (support?) to
    get out.  I am not that good with charts, but FWIW that's what he said.
    May be some of more technical noters could comment on Novell's chart.
    All I know this company with over 300 Mil shares outstanding is
    probably overvalued.  Then again why fight the trend since "trend is
    your friend"
    
    
    
    
<><><><><><><><>  T h e   V O G O N   N e w s   S e r v i c e  <><><><><><><><>

 Novell - In talks to sell 'source licenses' to Unix program to big computer
	firms
	{The Wall Street Journal, 18-Feb-94, p. B3}
   The move could bring the company more than $100 million.  People familiar
 with Novell's Unix business said that the highest-volume resellers of Unix pay
 about $25 in royalties on every computer they sell.  Low-volume licensees
 might pay $100 a copy.  Altogether, Novell's yearly licensing revenue from
 Unix is in the range of $100 million, but only a fraction of that comes from
 the computer makers to which Novell is offering the up-front arrangement.  The
 first sale could be completed within two months, said Novell CEO Ray Noorda.
 Analyst worry that the effort to sell licenses reflects Novell's inability to
 sell a single Unix package that is acceptable to all its major customers.  Mr.
 Noorda conceded that the sale of license might further fragment Unix, whose
 acceptance has been slowed in the past by the proliferation of different
 versions.  But he argued that this was unlikely to happen if Unix supporters
 hewed to a standard that ultimately will make it possible for the same
 application to run on many varieties of Unix.  An executive at Sun
 Microsystems, who confirmed that negotiations were under way, said that Sun was
 attracted to the prospect of saving money in the long run by buying a
 license.  The deal also could pave the way for Sun to someday offer an
 entirely home-grown operating system that has no ties to Unix other than its
 ability to run familiar Unix applications.  Already, Unix licensees such as
 Sun often don't rely on much code from Novell, but they still need access to
 the trade name Unix and to be able to legally represent the Unix conventions.
 A spokesman for HP confirmed that it was in talks with Novell, but declined
 to comment further.  An IBM spokesman declined comment.

I used perhaps half of it for VNS. If you're interested in Novell you might
want to read the entire article, the remaining details of which I don't recall.

						Trace