| T.R | Title | User | Personal
Name | Date | Lines |
|---|
| 502.1 | Perception beats truth, anyday! | TOLKIN::DALY | | Fri Jun 18 1993 08:36 | 13 |
| An interesting stock here...and seems to be performing about as well as any of
the "environmentals" that I know of. Unfortunately, at least in my case, my
experience with one such stock has been a lot less than stellar. Perhaps some-
one could comment. The company is Rollins Environmental Services (REN). I
bought it several years ago at 18ish, it promptly split 5-4 and dropped like a
rock from there. Seems that like many environmentals, their technology became
suspect (incineration of hazardous waste) and thus the perception of their
future became questionable (my read).
I believe that Gundle may has a similar track record and one should look at
them as promising, but with an eye in the rear view mirror.
Bob
|
| 502.2 | | DSSDEV::PIEKOS | Zoo TV | Tue Jul 06 1993 12:13 | 2 |
| Gundle has a p/e of about 120 right now ($.05 a share last year).
|
| 502.3 | Price/Sales a better long-term measure? | MCIS2::BONVALLAT | | Wed Jul 07 1993 14:06 | 26 |
| >Gundle has a p/e of about 120 right now ($.05 a share last year).
There are times when a P/E ratio should be regarded as NMF "Not Meaningful".
I would argue that Gundle's current P/E fits that description.
P/E is not very helpful as a valuation tool when evaluating very cyclical
companies or companies that have experienced an aberrant year (as Gundle has).
If earnings are "normalized", the P/E usually gives a clearer picture of value.
In the case of Gundle we have a company with a history of steadily rising
sales and a net profit margin that generally fluctuates a bit around 7%
(from memory). Under normal conditions, the company would experience a
slight increase in sales this year (to $140 million) and a normal 7% net
profit margin which would yield about $1.00/share in earnings (for a P/E of 7).
More realistically, sales should be about flat (due to price reductions) and
the profit margin should be tighter than normal - hence, analyst predictions
of .50/share (for a P/E of 14).
The current 120 P/E reminds us that last year was a very bad year for the
company due to: competitive pressures, low point in industry cycle, bad
weather, recession, and write-offs.
*BTW, one thing I didn't include in my original write-up was the fact that
Gundle's earnings are annually understated by about 10 cents/share.
7 cents/share goes toward annual amortization of goodwill, and I believe
accelerated depreciation is faster than actual depreciation to the tune
of 3-10 cents/share.
|
| 502.4 | | ZENDIA::FERGUSON | Your recipe is so tasty | Mon Jul 12 1993 10:50 | 1 |
| Up $1 this past week; closed at 7 5/8ths I reckon on friday.
|
| 502.5 | Still climbing | ANOVAX::JWICKERT | Moe, Larry, the cheese! | Thu Jul 15 1993 21:50 | 3 |
| It hit 8 bucks today. Any news on this stock to justify the rise in it?
JRW
|
| 502.6 | | SUBWAY::SAMBAMURTY | Raja | Fri Jul 16 1993 15:01 | 5 |
| Re: -1
I think they announced their quaterly results yes'day (I can't remember
the exact numbers, but I saw it scroll off the reuters screen; it was
higher than the previous quater)
|
| 502.7 | | MSBCS::HURLEY | | Fri Sep 03 1993 11:33 | 6 |
| Jeff,
You hit it on the head again with this one. Up 33% $9.00 since
your note. I have some money coming in shortly (2 weeks) and wondering
what your thoughts are on gundle now since it has gone from $6 to $9 a
share?
|
| 502.8 | Still on track | MCIS2::BONVALLAT | | Mon Sep 06 1993 23:45 | 13 |
|
Thanks....I still think the stock is headed for the high teens sometime
during the next 6-12 months, so I guess it is still a buy. It may stall
around 10-12 since their is some technical resistance in that area, and
a 10-15% market correction could bring it back to about $8. If I were
you, I'd probably limit my buying to $9 or less.
Despite ongoing problems with the weather, Gundle earned .15/share in
the June quarter. Their restructuring (cost cutting and capital investment)
has begun to payoff for them. The September quarter is seasonally the
strongest and the Subtitle D deadline (now a "firm" April 1994) is
starting to generate orders.
|
| 502.9 | news? | FLAM01::CONCORDIA | later | Mon Dec 13 1993 16:08 | 7 |
| Gundle down 3 3/8 today to 7...
I assume there was some "bad" news... anyone know what it was?
Does this mean anything for the long term prospects...
-Dave
|
| 502.10 | Negative earnings surprise | MROA::BONVALLAT | | Tue Dec 14 1993 20:32 | 20 |
| GUN close: 7 1/8 -3 1/4 High 7 1/2 Low 6 1/2
Here's the bad news....
The stock opened down sharply on an early morning news release by the company
stating that the company expects to report 3rd quarter earnings results that
are "significantly below" Wall Street analyst expectations of .21-.23/share.
The press release cited increased competitive pricing pressure and poor
weather for two large projects as the reasons for the shortfall. For the
fiscal year ended March 31, 1994, Gundle expects to report earnings in the
.50-.60/share range, up from .05 in fiscal year 1993. Looking out into 1994,
Gundle still expects very good overall market growth as a result of the
government's Subtitle D regulation.
I'll admit, this certainly caught me by surprise. Earnings had been coming
back strongly the past two quarters. Now, the rebound has been put on hold.
My best guess is that the stock will trade around its lows (6 1/2 to 8) for
awhile, and then attempt another rally to double digits - probably after
the quarterly report in late January. From a long-term perspective,
Gundle appears to be once again very undervalued on a historical
price/earnings basis. It looks like some patience will be required though.
|
| 502.11 | | NYOSS1::SAMBAMURTY | Raja | Tue Apr 26 1994 16:00 | 5 |
| I thought the Apr 1, 1994 deadline to implement EPA regulations would
give a boost to this stock. Looks like it is going no where in a hurry.
ANy updates on this ?
thanks
|
| 502.12 | Gundle update & 4th Q report | MROA::BONVALLAT | | Thu May 05 1994 13:59 | 54 |
| >I thought the Apr 1, 1994 deadline to implement EPA regulations would
>give a boost to this stock. Looks like it is going no where in a hurry.
>ANy updates on this ?
Subtitle D is now in effect. This has already stimulated demand for Gundle
products (in late 1993 and early 1994) and the positive sales effects from
Subtitle D are expected to be increasingly large over the coming few years.
Gundle should experience a gradual and consistent growth "spurt" from
Subtitle D, rather than a one-quarter demand surge.
The problem at Gundle has been that competitive pricing pressures have
slowed net revenues and kept profits under wraps - despite excellent unit
volume growth. This is because competitors added capacity in expectation
of the increased industry sales. Ah...the free market at work again!
What we should see happen now is a gradual absorption of industry capacity
as demand increases - and this should coincide with a gradual improvement
in industry profit margins. In the end, we should see a return to normal
profit margins on a much higher sales base - and I expect Gundle to experience
record sales AND profits. Whether this happens this year or 2 years from
now I cannot be sure, but the good news is that the stock will begin to
anticipate this happy occurrence in advance.
For now, the operative words are patience and value. Actually, it is very
easy to have patience if you are convinced that the current stock price
exhibits tremendous value. I believe that is the case, and there is an
old stock market saying that "value will out". The short-term is less
predictable in the stock market, but longer-term those stocks with value
will outperform. There are many popular high-flying stocks that today sell
for many multiples more than their "intrinsic value" - and because of the
competitive nature of free markets most of them will eventually get a
reality check. Gundle, on the other hand, is not a popular stock and looks
like a bargain in terms of sales ($120M annually) to market value ($65M), and
potential cash flow to market value (using "normal" industry profit margins).
Also, Gundle is the market leader in a growing niche industry.
After the sharp stock drop in December, I said I thought Gundle would trade
between 6 1/2 and 8 for a reasonable period of time. The stock has extended
those boundaries by 1/2 point on both the upside and downside, but has
essentially been building the base that I expected. My best guess is that
the basing process is nearly complete and that the next large move will be up.
We overcame one important hurdle yesterday when Gundle issued their 4th Quarter
financial report: 1994 Q4 Sales and EPS - $17.3M & .10 loss per share
1993 Q4 Sales and EPS - $13.3M & .36 loss per share
The loss was no great surprise since the March quarter is seasonally soft -
and the stock edged up a bit on the news. Gundle earned $5 million (.49/share)
for the year. Management also revealed that they are considering building a
plant in Southeast Asia to better serve that large and growing market area.
We're now entering the seasonally strong summer period, so we should be
seeing at least a couple good earnings reports. If we do, the stock should
perk up - or better yet perk up now in anticipation of good earnings.
Those are my thoughts (and only my thoughts - not to be taken as a
recommendation of any kind). Good luck!
|
| 502.13 | | SCHOOL::DESAI | | Thu May 05 1994 14:53 | 2 |
| sounds interesting...pl. keep us updated on any significant news/moves
in the future.
|
| 502.14 | | ZENDIA::FERGUSON | You'll never get out of this maze! | Fri May 06 1994 10:21 | 5 |
| GUN did up-tick yesturday from 6 1/4 to 6 3/4 - must have been the earnings
report because that stock was rock solid in the 6 1/4 range for the last
few weeks....
|
| 502.15 | | CPDW::ROSCH | | Fri May 06 1994 10:23 | 176 |
| Gundle Environ Ticker: GUN Exchange: American
19103 Gundle Road
Houston TX 77073
(713) 443-8564
Description: Prod/install polyethylene lining systems
| Industry # 09 | Industry # 095
Company |Business Services |Business Services: Waste
| |Management
Multiples | |
| |
Price/Earnings ......... 28.3 | 18.2 | 19.2
Price/Earnings-5yr Avg.. NM | 17.8 | 41.0
Price/Book ............. 0.93 | 3.21 | 1.73
Price/Sales ............ 0.5 | 1.4 | 1.4
Price/Cash flow......... 8.0 | 10.8 | 8.7
Dividend Yield (%)...... 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0
| |
| |
PE to EPS Growth........ NE | 1.7 | 1.1
| |
| |
| |
Annual Growth Rates | |
| |
Revenue (%)............. 6.7 | 16.5 | 21.9
Cost of Goods Sold (%).. 8.6 | 14.9 | 25.1
Gross Operating Inc (%). 1.8 | 15.0 | 15.5
Net Income (%).......... -44.9 | 1.0 | -18.9
EPS-Total (%)........... -48.3 | 1.8 | -13.1
EPS-Continuing (%)...... -48.3 | 2.6 | -13.1
Cash Flow (%)........... -8.5 | 5.9 | 0.0
Dividend (%)............ 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0
INCOME STATEMENT DATA
Indicated Dividend ($): 0.00
Quarterly, Ending
93/12 93/09 93/06 93/03
-------- -------- -------- --------
EPS-Total ($)........... 0.10 0.34 0.15 -0.36
EPS-Continuing ($)...... 0.10 0.34 0.15 -0.36
Dividend ($)............ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
92/12 92/09 92/06 92/03
-------- -------- -------- --------
EPS ($)................. 0.06 0.22 0.13 0.04
EPS-Continuing ($)...... 0.06 0.22 0.13 0.04
Dividend ($)............ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Annual, Ending
Last
12 Months 93/03 91/12 90/12 89/12 88/12
---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
Sales $M.... 122.5 115.3 134.9 120.0 91.7 88.9
CoGS $M..... 94.1 87.4 96.5 89.9 66.2 62.9
Gr Op Inc $M 28.4 27.9 38.4 30.1 25.5 26.0
Net Inc $M.. 2.6 0.6 8.5 5.9 4.4 6.5
Gr Margin %. 23.2 24.2 28.5 25.1 27.8 29.2
Net Margin % 2.1 0.5 6.3 4.9 4.8 7.3
EPS-Total $. 0.23 0.05 0.83 0.62 0.46 0.70
EPS-Cont $.. 0.23 0.05 0.83 0.62 0.46 0.70
Cash Flow $. 0.81 0.59 1.17 0.97 0.73 0.84
Dividend $.. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Payout Ratio 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Shares (Mil) 10.2 10.4 10.6 9.6 9.6 9.6
BALANCE SHEET ($ in Millions)
Annual, Ending
93/03 91/12 90/12
-------------- -------------- --------------
Current Assets................. 50.4 61.3 52.2
Net Fixed Assets............... 30.5 30.0 26.5
Other Non-Current Assets....... 26.4 27.4 27.2
-------------- -------------- --------------
Total Assets.................. 107.3 118.7 105.9
============== ============== ==============
Current Liabilities............ 13.2 19.9 21.9
Long-Term Debt................. 25.0 29.0 37.2
Other Non-Current Liabilities.. 2.7 2.1 1.9
-------------- -------------- --------------
Total Liabilities............. 40.9 51.0 61.0
Preferred Stock................ 0.0 0.0 0.0
Common Stock Equity............ 66.4 67.7 44.9
-------------- -------------- --------------
Total Liabilities & Equity.... 107.3 118.7 105.9
============== ============== ==============
Total Capitalization........... 91.4 96.7 82.1
Industry # 09 Industry # 095
RATIOS Company |Business Services|Business Services: Waste
| |Management
Profitability: | |
|
Gross Profit Margin (%).... 23.2 | 56.0 | 50.2
Net Profit Margin (%)...... 2.1 | 3.6 | 0.2
Return on Total Assets (%). 2.2 | 3.1 | 0.3
Return on Equity (%)....... 3.3 | 10.9 | 1.2
| |
Liquidity: | |
Quick Ratio................ 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.4
Current Ratio.............. 3.8 | 1.9 | 1.8
| |
Debt Management: | |
Tot Liab to Tot Assets (%). 38.1 | 74.5 | 77.4
LT Debt to Capital (%)..... 27.4 | 15.2 | 20.0
| |
Asset Management: | |
Total Asset Turnover Ratio. 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.6
SHARE SUMMARY
Price Last: 6.50 52-Week High: 12.50 52-Week Low: 6.25
93/12 93/09 93/06 93/03 92/12
-------- -------- -------- -------- --------
Price Close ($).... 6.50 7.38 10.50 6.75 7.88
1993 1992 1991 1990 1989
-------- -------- -------- -------- --------
Price Close ($).... 7.38 9.00 14.38 12.88 13.88
High ($)..... 12.50 21.13 18.63 16.00 25.00
Low ($)...... 6.25 7.38 10.38 6.63 11.50
Moving Average-200 Day ($)............ 8.64
Relative Strength-52 Week (%)......... 87
Beta.................................. 0.62
Average Weekly Volume-52 Week......... 343
Market Capitalization ($Million)...... 66.3
Institutional Holdings (% of Shrs).... 57.4
VALUATIONS
EPS | Dividends | Cash Flow | Sales |
Current Marke Multiplier: m ... 28.3 |******** | 8.0 | 0.5 |
| | | |
Latest Reported ($/shr): lr ... 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.81 | 12.01 |
| | | |
Annual Growth Rate (%): g ..... -48.3 | 0.0 | -8.5 | 6.7 |
| | | |
Trend ($): t = lr * (1 + g) ... 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.74 | 12.81 |
| | | |
Valuation ($): v = m * t ..... 3.37 | NC | 5.93 | 6.41 |
|
|
PE Average Market Multiplier: m NM |
|
Valuation ($): v = m * t ..... NC |
|
| 502.16 | | SCHOOL::DESAI | | Mon Jul 11 1994 14:19 | 2 |
| what's with GUN? Down to 4 7/8 from 6+ a few weeks ago. What's the
bad news?
|
| 502.17 | Source of FUNDAMENTAL NEWS?... | POBOX::PATEL | | Mon Jul 11 1994 18:53 | 22 |
| RE: .15 - Where did you get all this Fundamental information from - Is
it something that you have been building - Did you retype it from S&P
Report or Do you subscribet to an online service. If you got it from an
on-line service could you provide me details - I am looking for a
service that will provide that.
Of course this question is not in the stream of the topic going on -
Pardon me folks. So let me put in my 2 cents as I see it for this on
going discussion.
Gundle has broken it's technical support by trading that low, but then
if you watch the Environmental funds you will find that all the
environmental stocks have been taking it on the chin lately - Maybe
that's the answer to the .16 note.....
If you want to make it a personal response, please send e-mail to
POBOX::PATEL.
Thanks
Ken
|
| 502.18 | | CPDW::ROSCH | | Tue Jul 12 1994 09:59 | 1 |
| It's from the AAIISI program from AAII
|
| 502.19 | chart support removed | MROA::BONVALLAT | | Mon Jul 18 1994 14:01 | 16 |
| .16
> what's with GUN? Down to 4 7/8 from 6+ a few weeks ago. What's the
> bad news?
GUN broke some strong technical support around 6 a couple weeks ago.
This is obviously not a good sign for the short-term. Volume was also heavy.
I don't know any fundamental reason for it. The company says they know
of no reason and that "nothing has changed". I suspect we might get a
clue tomorrow. Quarterly earnings are due out Tues. July 19.
The stock now trades at adjusted book value (after subtracting Goodwill).
They have $12 per share in annual sales and have consistently been profitable.
Earnings are the big variable. They have a history of large cyclical
earnings swings. As has been the case for the past year, Gundle's industry
is exhibited by approx. 15% annual sales growth, but continued overcapacity.
|
| 502.20 | Q1 earnings results | MROA::BONVALLAT | | Tue Jul 26 1994 21:15 | 11 |
| For those interested, here are the quarterly results Gundle posted last week.
Gundle: Q1 1994 1993
Sales $27.3 million 27.5 million
EPS .07 .15
Results were nothing to write home about, but not a disaster either.
The stock didn't react when the announcement was made. Without any
blockbuster earnings on the immediate horizon, and with the stock
breaking important technical support at 6, it looks like the date for
Gundle's big price advance has probably been postponed for awhile longer.
|
| 502.21 | what gives? | SCHOOL::DESAI | | Mon Sep 26 1994 13:35 | 6 |
| GUN is up to 6 1/2. Does anyone have the details for the rise from ~5
to 6.5 in last couple of weeks?
thanks,
- Rajesh
|
| 502.22 | possible reasons | MROA::BONVALLAT | | Mon Sep 26 1994 19:30 | 15 |
| > GUN is up to 6 1/2. Does anyone have the details for the rise from ~5
> to 6.5 in last couple of weeks?
Yes and no. None of the brokerage firms which follow GUN have changed
any opinions, and the company says they have no idea why the stock is moving.
It started to move after the last quarterly report was mailed...maybe because
it had a comment to the effect that "bidding activity was up 50% over the same
period last year."
Or maybe it is just that investors get more interested in the stock during
Gundle's seasonally strong period of the year (summer/fall).
I do know that some of the buying during the past couple days has been due
to technical buying. The stock broke above its 200 day moving average
on Friday when it went through 6 1/4. That's the first time since December
that GUN has been above its 200 day MA. All in all, it has a good look to it.
|
| 502.23 | | ZENDIA::FERGUSON | The Janitor of Coding | Tue Sep 27 1994 10:32 | 2 |
| I was just about to ask this! good to see that it has now moved back into
the 6s.
|
| 502.24 | merger | RICKS::IVES | | Thu Mar 30 1995 15:34 | 13 |
| Gundle agrees to a Wembely unit merger - WSJ 3/30
Gundle Environmental Systems agreed to merge with SLT Environmental Inc.
in a stock transaction valued at about $36.7 million.
Under the agreement, SLT, a unit of Wembely Ltd, will receive 7 million
shares of Gundle common stock, which has been trading at about $5.25 a
share. In addition, Houston based Gundle will assume SLT's debt of $34
million.
Gundle stock added 50 cents, or 9.3%, to $5.875 a share in American Stock
Exchange composite trading.
|