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Conference nyoss1::market_investing

Title:	Market Investing

Moderator:	2155::michaud

Created:	Thu Jan 23 1992
Last Modified:	Thu Jun 05 1997
Last Successful Update:	Fri Jun 06 1997
Number of topics:	1060
Total number of notes:	10477

329.0. "Mutual Funds. Market Timing and Horse Manure?" by SPECXN::KANNAN () Thu Dec 10 1992 12:38


  I have a question for those experienced with Mutual fund newsletters
  and market timing using these. I have been subscribing to the Donoghue
  newsletter for about two years now and have some real doubts about
  the claims that he makes about returns on portfolios he suggests.

  I have been tracking the performance of my investments using Lotus 123
  and it was never as good as what Donoghue claims for his suggestions
  even though for a while I was following all of his buy, sell, hold 
  recommendations.

  Recently I just picked a couple of good families and have been consistently
  dollar-cost averaging. I seem to be doing better all by myself.

  Are all these guys for real? Or is there something I'm missing.

  I am eager to hear from people who have been using these newsletters
  and actually getting the returns these guys claim?

  Any discussion appreciated.

  Nari

T.R	Title	User	Personal Name	Date	Lines
329.1	How long using each method?	SANFAN::STONEAL		`Thu Dec 10 1992 20:41`	10
	Over what period of time did you use Donoghue's recommendations, and what return were you able to achieve? Similarly, how long have you been dollar-cost averaging (in what funds?) and what has the return been? I have been considering Donoghue also, but have not yet made the commitment. Any info on your experiences will be appreciated.
329.2	Less hype -- works great	VMSDEV::HALLYB	Fish have no concept of fire.	`Fri Dec 11 1992 07:29`	16
	I -don't- have the same problem as the author in .0. I tele-switch using a market timer and have no problems. He gives clear, specific signals, e.g. "we are now on a BUY signal and tomorrow will take a 20% position in Fidelity Select Technology and a 30% position in Fidelity Select Financial Services. The rest of our portfolio is in cash, awaiting further signs of strength." Gave a clear-cut, no-holds-barred buy signal a week -before- the big rally last December, sold in Feb. Latest buy came Oct. 12th of this year. $205/year for newsletter and hotline from The Sy Harding Investor Forecasts, 1-904-446-0823. For circa $50K accounts he'll also manage your money thru Chuck Schwab. John
329.3	Market Timing and Dollar-cost averaging.	SPECXN::KANNAN		`Fri Dec 11 1992 12:53`	30
	>>>> Over what period of time did you use Donoghue's recommendations, and what return were you able to achieve? >>>> I used Donoghue's recommendations in 1991, all year. His top rated funds at that time 20th Century ULTRA and Janus Twenty, he claimed astronomical returns somewhere around 90%. I got about 58% (no complaints here!). There were other funds such as SAFECO Growth that was on the Buy list for a long time with his return of about 46% or so. I sold it when he told me to but still I managed only about 12%. This year I just stuck with Janus and 20th Century, a couple of their funds and in Nov or so when there was a dip in the DOW I started a Vanguard Equity Income fund. Now I have a 55% return on this and about 10% overall which is better than what Donoghue is doing with his portfolio (about 8% or so). So the question in my mind is why the hell am I paying this guy 100$ for? I have a guess as to why this difference exists. If I were Donoghue and trying to get the maximum returns that I want I WOULD NOT BE DOLLAR COST AVERAGING but buying funds when the graphs show me a dip. So my conclusion from all of this is that timing letters really don't help you if you ALSO want to dollar-cost average. Any more insights appreciated. Nari