Conference nyoss1::market_investing

    On AST, I've heard rumors of upcoming terrible earnings.
    Also, I know some people who are very familiar with AST and
    work for a major brokerage firm in NYC who are shorting it heavily.
    I think there are better buys.    

    re .1
    
    is that why stock was up yesterday and is up today?
    
    jessie

    
>    is that why stock was up yesterday and is up today?
    
Probably, but of course that wasn't a 2-day forecast.  The stock has
already had a big decline and is certainly entitled to a bounce or two
along the way, but I'll stick to a neutral/negative outlook on AST.
With so many very good companies out there, why would you want to put
your capital in a company dedicated to an industry characterized by
intense, and recently accelerated, price competition?  and also an
industry which has become a victim of commoditization?

I'll admit that my comments on AST are pretty much off-the-cuff.  I
havn't researched the company.  However, the industry characteristics
and the rumor from a usually reliable source about poor upcoming earnings
are enough to make me want to pass on it.

Title:     AST Research, Inc. - Company Report
Author:    Rohrman, C.
Publisher: First Boston Corporation (The)
Date:      8/4/92

The company's final period sales rose 26% to $266 million on a 23% jump in
desktop revenues to $176 million, while Notebook revenues more than quadrupled
to $59 million. Desktop volumes reached 109,000 units, up 41% from a year ago,
and selling prices averaged $1,614. Higher-priced 486 machines have finally
reached the critical mass point at which unit gains overcome declining 386
prices, raising average selling prices. AST reported 4Q:92 results of $0.59,
9% below year-ago results. A lower-than-expected tax rate of 28.1% contributed
about $0.04 to the bottom line. Revenues climbed 26% to $266 million, and 486
sales increased 60% sequentially to $80 million on a 71% increase in volume
shipments to 36,000 units. Corporate gross margins fell to 29.2% from 30.5% in
the previous period as tremendous pricing pressure continued.

    re .2
    One of the criteria I use is, I want to buy a good stock (a company
    that will be around) when nobody else does.  It has paid of well in the
    past.
    
    JEssie

    RE .5 Looks like your strategy has worked on AST.  It was up today
    closed at 17 7/8.
    
    Re: .1 I hope the people you know in NY are covering their shorts.

    I wish I had bought LOTS when the base note was written.
    
    In any case, after hitting 85+ last spring, LOTS hit a bottom of
    30 or so only a few weeks ago. Since then it has jumped to 44 as
    of today. 
    
    What are the chances of a repeat performance i.e. reaching 80s again
    in next six months to a year? Mind you, today's price may have 
    absorbed all the bad news e.g. revised downward forecasts for the
    current quarter, weak european sales etc. SO any good announcements
    should boost the stock price - in my opinion.
    

Symbol        : ASTA        Exchange    : NASDAQ
Description   : A S T RESEARCH INC
Current Price : 13.000      Volume      : 10958300
$ Change      : -5.000      % Change    : -27.78  
Bid           : 13.000      Ask         : 13.125   

	Well the rumors are over, it's now official, Lotus is a takeover
	target.  IBM is offering to buy Lotus for about $60/share.  LOTS
	is already trading in the 3rd markets trading (?) near $60.
	Now why didn't anyone in here say anything last week :-)

ps: FWIW, ASTA was indeed a good buy (like alot of tech. stocks :-) at 13

Symbol        : LOTS         Exchange    : NASDAQ
Description   : LOTUS DEV CORP                               
Last Traded at: 32.5000      Date/Time   : Jun 02 
$ Change      : 3.2500       % Change    : 11.11   

Volume        : 79000        # of Trades : 2301     
52 Week Low   : 25.0000      52 Week High: 58.5000  

Symbol        : ASTA         Exchange    : NASDAQ
Description   : AST RESEARCH INC                             
Last Traded at: 18.1250      Date/Time   : Jun 02 
$ Change      : -0.3750      % Change    : -2.03   

Bid           : 18.1250      Ask         : 18.5000  
Day Low       : 18.1250      Day High    : 18.5000  
52 Week Low   : 10.3750      52 Week High: 19.2500  

I called waterhouse.
trading on LOTS is halted right now.
they expect a mid-50s opening.

all those people holding LOTS are psyched today!

	And FWIW, the reason it's a hostile takeoever they say is
	because talks between IBM and LOTS about a friendly buyout
	had failed.

	IBM is supposedly paying for this with cash on hand.  IBM
	was down 2 pts in very early trading.

    LOTS is up 27 and change, selling near 60. IBM? Off a point right now,
    trading as low as 90 and high as 93�.
    
    Update on an old Johnny Carson joke: "Just last week my investment advisor, 
    Bombastic Bushkin, had me sell all my Lotus stock and invest it in IBM..."
    
      John

	Interesting day high for LOTS (more than 10% higher than IBM's bid).

Symbol        : LOTS         Exchange    : NASDAQ
Description   : LOTUS DEV CORP                               
Last Traded at: 60.0000      Date/Time   : Jun 05 11:15:04
$ Change      : 27.5000      % Change    : 84.62   

Volume        : 435100       # of Trades : 4408     
Bid           : 60.0000      Ask         : 60.2500  
Day Low       : 55.0000      Day High    : 68.0938  
52 Week Low   : 25.0000      52 Week High: 60.1250  

Symbol        : IBM          Exchange    : New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)
Description   : INTL BUSINESS MACHINES                       
Last Traded at: 92.8750      Date/Time   : Jun 05 11:15:38
$ Change      : -1.3750      % Change    : -1.46   

Volume        : 2661400      # of Trades : 255      
Day Low       : 90.2500      Day High    : 93.5000  
52 Week Low   : 54.5000      52 Week High: 97.8750  

	BTW, anyone who bought LOTS or options on LOTS last Friday
	be forewarned that the SEC is investigating that it's pretty
	obvious there was some insider trading that day .....

    An analyst was being interviewd on NPR this morning about the Lotus
    deal; he was asked what it was that IBM wanted from Lotus. Mainly
    they want desktop software, to help them compete with Microsoft. The
    interesting thing was that the analyst said that the DB and
    spreadsheet software was less of a consideration because Microsoft's
    products already have dominance in that arena. What they really want,
    he says, is NOTES. From the description, it sounded a lot like DEC
    Notes; but when asked whether there were any competing products, he
    said no.
    
    Is Lotus NOTES so much different than our product that we
    couldn't compete with them? Lotus' product was described as very
    expensive and not marketed as well as it could be. Sounds like we have
    an opportunity here...
    			Jim

Re: .16

	While the product names both have NOTEs in them, Lotus NOTES
	is much much more than DECnotes.  Lotus NOTES is what is called
	GroupWare.

    
    ...and for GroupWare we have Linkworks.

	Well for those living in fox holes :-), the takeover is now
	a friendly one.  Those who bought LOTS at higher than the
	original buyout price of $60/share partly knew what they were
	doing (some thought competing bids would top $70), and the
	final agreed to by Lotus price is $64/share.

	This is the largest takeover in software history.